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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank58.9/ 100
Official close$470.47+25.90 (+5.83%)
Bid$470.17
Ask$470.66
Previous close$444.57
ATR (14)4.70%
RSI (14)49.7
Volume5.25M
Model reference$455.00
Upside scenario$490.00
Risk reference$435.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Prices in Bullish Sentiment Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price pullbacks. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting anticipation of significant price movement. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a belief in potential upside in the near future. Positive sentiment from recent earnings results and AI tailwinds is reflected in bullish call option activity.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in the potential for continued growth driven by strong demand for semiconductors, particularly in the AI sector.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious bounce play / speculative long with high uncertainty from mixed technicals, elevated valuation, and sector volatility; wait for confirmation or dip.

Three-month outlook

Constructive/bullish on AI-driven semiconductor capex, Q4 execution, 2027 visibility (DRAM/packaging/foundry-logic), and capital returns, with analysts seeing significant upside. High uncertainty from stretched valuation (P/E 38), possible margin/China/macro risks, and recent pullback volatility. Not a high-conviction hold without risk management.

Market sentiment context

Mixed to cautiously positive among relevant posts: Bullish on AI tailwinds, India expansion, record results, and emerging rally; cautious due to high market expectations (stock previously punished despite beat), valuation, and AI slowdown fears. Recent $AMAT mentions dominated by spam; genuine discussion notes greed/perfection pricing vs. solid fundamentals.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$452.82
50D SMA$498.35
200D SMA$417.26
9D EMA$442.95
21D EMA$457.50
20D MVWAP$451.04
YTD VWAP$456.70
Daily reference VWAP$461.80
Price vs 20D SMA2.52%
Price vs 50D SMA-6.84%
Price vs 200D SMA11.26%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)60.99
RSI (14)49.71
RSI (21)47.53
Stochastic K48.69
Stochastic D25.96
MACD line-18.25
MACD histogram-20.64
ADX (14)20.79
MACD acceleration1.55
RSI velocity5.58
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.05
ATR (14) %4.70%
Bollinger upper$497.29
Bollinger middle$452.82
Bollinger lower$408.35
Bollinger position0.63%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility50.93%
Observed range position15.88%
5D true high$468.51
5D true low$411.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume5.25M
20D average volume3.32M
Volume vs 20D average1.58x
20D SMA velocity-2.64
50D SMA velocity-2.90
Institutional flow-3.04
ATR velocity0.05
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$470.47
DateSep 21, 2026
Volume5.25M
Vwap D$461.80
Mvwap 20$451.04
Change25.90
Change Percentage5.83%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$452.82
Sma 50$498.35
Sma 200$417.26
Ema 9$442.95
Ema 21$457.50
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 760.99
Rsi 1449.71
Rsi 2147.53
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K48.69
Stoch D25.96
Macd Line-18.25
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-20.64
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr21.81
Atr Pct4.70%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv51.52
Iv Rank27.42
Iv Percentile41.83%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper497.3
Bb Middle452.8
Bb Lower408.4
Bb Pctb0.63
True High$468.51
True Low$444.57
True High 5d$468.51
True Low 5d$411.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-2.64
Sma50$-2.90
Mvwap20$-3.04
Macd1.55
Rsi5.58
Volume622,652
Atr0.05
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
93
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
57
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
63
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
39

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Prices in Bullish Sentiment Despite Recent Pullback

The AMAT option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price pullbacks. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting anticipation of significant price movement. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a belief in potential upside in the near future. Positive sentiment from recent earnings results and AI tailwinds is reflected in bullish call option activity.

Front ATM IV54.53%
Current IV48.97%
IV Rank23.40
IV Percentile33.07%
25Δ skew-1.18
Term slope-3.09
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread9.05%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
54.5%51.4%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-254.0054.53%—
2026-10-0211.0052.66%—
2026-10-0918.0051.44%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$447.50
Long strike$445.00
Net credit / share$0.58
Credit / width23.00%
$58$-192$443.63$448.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$485.00
Long strike$487.50
Net credit / share$0.48
Credit / width19.00%
$48$-202$483.63$488.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (48.97%) suggests market expectation of significant price movement.
  • Backwardated term structure with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options indicates a belief in near-term upside potential.
  • Strong bullish sentiment from recent earnings results and AI tailwinds is reflected in bullish call option activity.
Risk context
  • High valuation (P/E ~38) could limit further upside.
  • Potential margin compression and geopolitical risks remain concerns.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score56.90

The market appears to be pricing in the potential for continued growth driven by strong demand for semiconductors, particularly in the AI sector.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$2.44B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.26%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread9.05%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 21, 2026 9:50 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $457.50 | $11.40 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$352.81B
P/E (TTM)38.1×
Beta1.64
52-week range$183.83 – $739.67
52-week return134.28%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identitye5d6b4265a2c27e5d25367f9

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy