Download daily PDF
Latest workspace
Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank52.9/ 100
Official close$416.49+1.11 (+0.27%)
Bid$415.80
Ask$417.50
Previous close$415.38
ATR (14)5.08%
RSI (14)33.8
Volume3.64M
Model reference$412.00
Upside scenario$445.00
Risk reference$398.00
Decision summary

AMAT Shows Signs of Oversold Bounce Potential

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market suggests a potential oversold bounce in the near term. Despite recent weakness driven by broader tech sector concerns and valuation worries, strong fundamentals, including record Q3 earnings and a multi-year outlook, are attracting bullish sentiment. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average and showing signs of technical oversold conditions. However, significant uncertainty remains due to elevated valuation, potential further AI/tech pullbacks, and macroeconomic headwinds.

Wheel contextThe option market shows elevated put buying, indicating bearish sentiment. However, the recent news of a $5B investment in India and strong Q3 results could spark a short-term rally.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious speculative long for 1-3 week oversold bounce on India news and technical oversold reading, but high uncertainty from established short-term downtrend, volatility, and macro/tech rotation risks. Not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Constructive bias from AI-driven semiconductor equipment demand, strong Q4 guidance, India expansion, and analyst targets, with potential recovery toward $480-550 if sentiment stabilizes. Significant uncertainty remains: elevated valuation (trailing P/E 36x), possible further AI/tech pullbacks, Fed/interest rate impacts, China demand digestion, and high beta (1.60) amplifying market swings. Outcomes highly uncertain and dependent on sustained AI capex and broader risk appetite; downside risk to $350-380 in adverse scenario.

Market sentiment context

Sparse organic recent discussion amid promotional spam. Mixed-to-cautious: some portfolio reductions in semis including AMAT; valuation concerns (expensive vs historical/peers, high expectations after beat still punished); others highlight long-term AI demand, wide moat, and potential rebound. Older posts more bullish on fundamentals and FCF returns.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$456.81
50D SMA$504.00
200D SMA$415.31
9D EMA$435.89
21D EMA$458.05
20D MVWAP$455.52
YTD VWAP$456.81
Daily reference VWAP$419.83
Price vs 20D SMA-8.63%
Price vs 50D SMA-17.18%
Price vs 200D SMA0.50%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)26.73
RSI (14)33.81
RSI (21)38.37
Stochastic K6.86
Stochastic D10.82
MACD line-23.54
MACD histogram-21.14
ADX (14)22.28
MACD acceleration-1.13
RSI velocity-0.29
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.44
ATR (14) %5.08%
Bollinger upper$507.74
Bollinger middle$456.81
Bollinger lower$405.88
Bollinger position0.11%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility40.63%
Observed range position0.66%
5D true high$464.57
5D true low$411.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.64M
20D average volume3.09M
Volume vs 20D average1.18x
20D SMA velocity-4.86
50D SMA velocity-3.09
Institutional flow-5.73
ATR velocity-0.44
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$416.49
DateSep 17, 2026
Volume3.64M
Vwap D$419.83
Mvwap 20$455.52
Change1.11
Change Percentage0.27%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$456.81
Sma 50$504.00
Sma 200$415.31
Ema 9$435.89
Ema 21$458.05
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 726.73
Rsi 1433.81
Rsi 2138.37
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K6.86
Stoch D10.82
Macd Line-23.54
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-21.14
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr21.19
Atr Pct5.08%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv48.89
Iv Rank23.27
Iv Percentile33.07%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper507.7
Bb Middle456.8
Bb Lower405.9
Bb Pctb0.11
True High$428.54
True Low$413.56
True High 5d$464.57
True Low 5d$411.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.86
Sma50$-3.09
Mvwap20$-5.73
Macd-1.13
Rsi-0.29
Volume-159,885
Atr-0.44
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
87
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
61
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
32
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
41

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Shows Signs of Oversold Bounce Potential

The AMAT option market suggests a potential oversold bounce in the near term. Despite recent weakness driven by broader tech sector concerns and valuation worries, strong fundamentals, including record Q3 earnings and a multi-year outlook, are attracting bullish sentiment. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average and showing signs of technical oversold conditions. However, significant uncertainty remains due to elevated valuation, potential further AI/tech pullbacks, and macroeconomic headwinds.

Front ATM IV49.57%
Current IV48.84%
IV Rank23.20
IV Percentile33.07%
25Δ skew9.20
Term slope-2.22
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread13.33%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
49.6%45.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-181.0049.57%—
2026-09-258.0045.71%—
2026-10-0215.0047.35%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$395.00
Long strike$392.50
Net credit / share$0.01
Credit / width0.40%
$1$-249$391.13$396.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$425.00
Long strike$427.50
Net credit / share$0.57
Credit / width22.60%
$57$-193$423.63$428.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • AMAT's recent price drop has pushed RSI(14) into oversold territory (28-33).
  • The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average, a potential support level.
  • Strong Q3 earnings and positive guidance for Q4 suggest continued demand for AMAT's products.
  • Analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus with price targets significantly above current levels.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation (trailing P/E 36x) makes AMAT susceptible to further pullbacks.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty and potential interest rate hikes pose risks to the tech sector.
  • China demand digestion and competition in the semiconductor industry could impact future growth.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score60.90

The option market shows elevated put buying, indicating bearish sentiment. However, the recent news of a $5B investment in India and strong Q3 results could spark a short-term rally.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.52B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.15%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread13.33%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 17, 2026 9:47 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $422.50 | $5.45 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$329.64B
P/E (TTM)36.3×
Beta1.64
52-week range$168.53 – $739.67
52-week return146.40%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identitycd358b97b05ffaf2786f23a2

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry AMAT from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Sign in to follow AMATCompare plans
Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy