Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank54.5/ 100
Official close$415.38-5.79 (-1.37%)
Bid$415.10
Ask$415.59
Previous close$421.17
ATR (14)5.22%
RSI (14)33.0
Volume3.38M
Model reference$415.00
Upside scenario$450.00
Risk reference$395.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Implies Balanced Sentiment

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays a neutral stance, with implied volatility suggesting balanced expectations for future price movement. The term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating near-term uncertainty. While the recent earnings beat and positive analyst commentary are reflected in bullish sentiment from some traders, concerns about margin pressure and sector rotation contribute to a cautious outlook.

Wheel contextAMAT's option market is showing balanced sentiment with moderate activity across both calls and puts. The recent earnings beat has sparked some bullish interest, but concerns about margin pressure and sector rotation keep the overall outlook cautious.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Neutral

Short-term scenario

Cautious dip-buy / speculative long (1-3 weeks) if 200DMA holds; high uncertainty from ongoing sector rotation, potential further technical breakdown, and macro (Fed). Wait for RSI bounce or volume confirmation. Not advice.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but uncertain: Q4 guidance and AI capex tailwinds (advanced packaging, DRAM, foundry-logic) plus analyst targets imply recovery potential toward $500+ if sentiment stabilizes and no China/macro shocks. However, elevated valuation, post-earnings margin worries, high beta, and possible broader tech/AI digestion could drive further 10-20% downside or sideways action. Multi-year growth story intact but near-term path highly dependent on market risk appetite and next earnings (Nov). Identify uncertainty: geopolitical, rates, execution on capacity, and whether pullback is healthy or start of deeper correction.


Market sentiment context

Moderately bullish among active posters: pullback viewed as discount/opportunity given record earnings, AI equipment TAM upgrades, 8-quarter visibility, and unusual bullish call flow. Comments on adding near support, ecosystem positioning vs. GPUs, and holding through volatility. Some valuation caution (high P/E vs. historical/peers) and notes of less 'love' than names like AMD. Overall constructive on fundamentals despite recent weakness.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$460.75
50D SMA$507.06
200D SMA$414.49
9D EMA$440.51
21D EMA$462.12
20D MVWAP$460.15
YTD VWAP$457.01
Daily reference VWAP$419.21
Price vs 20D SMA-9.85%
Price vs 50D SMA-18.08%
Price vs 200D SMA0.21%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)24.44
RSI (14)32.98
RSI (21)37.94
Stochastic K6.02
Stochastic D18.32
MACD line-22.91
MACD histogram-20.55
ADX (14)21.37
MACD acceleration-1.52
RSI velocity-2.89
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.08
ATR (14) %5.22%
Bollinger upper$511.02
Bollinger middle$460.75
Bollinger lower$410.47
Bollinger position0.05%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility41.41%
Observed range position0.00%
5D true high$468.85
5D true low$411.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.38M
20D average volume3.08M
Volume vs 20D average1.09x
20D SMA velocity-4.93
50D SMA velocity-3.26
Institutional flow-6.48
ATR velocity0.08
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$415.38
DateSep 16, 2026
Volume3.38M
Vwap D$419.21
Mvwap 20$460.15
Change-5.79
Change Percentage 1.37%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$460.75
Sma 50$507.06
Sma 200$414.49
Ema 9$440.51
Ema 21$462.12
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 724.44
Rsi 1432.98
Rsi 2137.94
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K6.02
Stoch D18.32
Macd Line-22.91
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-20.55
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr21.67
Atr Pct5.22%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv50.56
Iv Rank25.91
Iv Percentile40.24%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper511.0
Bb Middle460.8
Bb Lower410.5
Bb Pctb0.05
True High$430.74
True Low$411.51
True High 5d$468.85
True Low 5d$411.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.93
Sma50$-3.26
Mvwap20$-6.48
Macd-1.52
Rsi-2.89
Volume394,751
Atr0.08
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
87
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
63
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
34
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
45

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Implies Balanced Sentiment

The AMAT option market displays a neutral stance, with implied volatility suggesting balanced expectations for future price movement. The term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating near-term uncertainty. While the recent earnings beat and positive analyst commentary are reflected in bullish sentiment from some traders, concerns about margin pressure and sector rotation contribute to a cautious outlook.

Front ATM IV57.65%
Current IV49.50%
IV Rank24.23
IV Percentile35.06%
25Δ skew3.27
Term slope-7.67
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread24.34%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
57.7%50.0%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-182.0057.65%
2026-09-259.0050.67%
2026-10-0216.0049.98%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$405.00
Long strike$402.50
Net credit / share$0.94
Credit / width37.60%
$94$-156$401.13$406.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$430.00
Long strike$432.50
Net credit / share$0.37
Credit / width14.80%
$37$-213$428.63$433.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • The 25-delta skew is balanced, suggesting neutral expectations for directional movement.
  • The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term IV slightly higher than longer-term IV, indicating uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings report.
  • Put and call options at various strikes are actively traded, reflecting a balance between bullish and bearish sentiment.
Risk context
  • China shipment investigations remain a potential risk factor for AMAT.
  • Sector rotation and broader market volatility could impact AMAT's share price.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score60.70

AMAT's option market is showing balanced sentiment with moderate activity across both calls and puts. The recent earnings beat has sparked some bullish interest, but concerns about margin pressure and sector rotation keep the overall outlook cautious.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.40B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.12%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread24.34%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 16, 2026 11:19 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $430.00 | $10.63 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$334.24B
P/E (TTM)35.9×
Beta1.64
52-week range$168.53 – $739.67
52-week return146.40%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityaa0906bbb2b218d86e4bb409

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy