Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank56.7/ 100
Official close$462.43-19.93 (-4.13%)
Bid$461.98
Ask$464.00
Previous close$482.36
ATR (14)5.92%
RSI (14)37.6
Volume3.05M
Model reference$455.00
Upside scenario$490.00
Risk reference$440.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amid Earnings Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays mixed sentiment following a post-earnings pullback. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the company's future performance, there are signs of both bullish and bearish activity.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be digesting recent earnings results and weighing the impact of both positive and negative factors on AMAT's future prospects.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious opportunistic buy on further dip for potential 1-3 week bounce (high uncertainty from volatility, sector rotation, and unmet high expectations; not advice)

Three-month outlook

Constructive but highly uncertain and volatile. Strong Q4 guidance, AI buildout (DRAM/packaging/foundry ~80% of WFE growth), record margins, and customer visibility support potential recovery toward $550-650 range if demand converts and multiples stabilize. Risks include further correction (already >25-35% off highs), China exposure/export controls, high valuation (trailing P/E 41+), macro/geopolitical factors, and if AI capex digestions occur. Identify uncertainty: outcomes depend on execution vs. lofty expectations and broader tech/semiconductor sentiment; wide range possible ($400s downside to $600s+ upside).


Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautious. Bulls highlight AI/semiconductor capex, packaging/HBM demand, long-term visibility to 2030 and margin expansion; some note congressional buys and quality moat. Bears/cautious posts flag post-earnings punishment despite beats (high expectations/perfection priced in), relative weakness vs. QQQ, possible further drop toward $480, valuation, and positioning. Overall short-term skepticism amid pullback, longer-term constructive on fundamentals.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$511.28
50D SMA$551.13
200D SMA$401.60
9D EMA$486.97
21D EMA$504.92
20D MVWAP$513.19
YTD VWAP$457.78
Daily reference VWAP$466.72
Price vs 20D SMA-9.70%
Price vs 50D SMA-16.23%
Price vs 200D SMA14.96%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)26.24
RSI (14)37.63
RSI (21)42.04
Stochastic K7.14
Stochastic D8.40
MACD line-17.40
MACD histogram-13.51
ADX (14)15.44
MACD acceleration-1.01
RSI velocity-1.12
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-1.02
ATR (14) %5.92%
Bollinger upper$562.59
Bollinger middle$511.28
Bollinger lower$459.97
Bollinger position0.02%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility49.38%
Observed range position8.80%
5D true high$492.32
5D true low$460.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.05M
20D average volume3.57M
Volume vs 20D average0.85x
20D SMA velocity-0.37
50D SMA velocity-2.15
Institutional flow0.73
ATR velocity-1.02
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$462.43
DateAug 28, 2026
Volume3.05M
Vwap D$466.72
Mvwap 20$513.19
Change-19.93
Change Percentage 4.13%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$511.28
Sma 50$551.13
Sma 200$401.60
Ema 9$486.97
Ema 21$504.92
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 726.24
Rsi 1437.63
Rsi 2142.04
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K7.14
Stoch D8.40
Macd Line-17.40
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-13.51
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr27.32
Atr Pct5.92%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv48.43
Iv Rank28.37
Iv Percentile34.26%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper562.6
Bb Middle511.3
Bb Lower460.0
Bb Pctb0.02
True High$482.36
True Low$460.51
True High 5d$492.32
True Low 5d$460.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.37
Sma50$-2.15
Mvwap20$0.73
Macd-1.01
Rsi-1.12
Volume112,756
Atr-1.02
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
96
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
59
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
44
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
37

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amid Earnings Pullback

The AMAT option market displays mixed sentiment following a post-earnings pullback. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the company's future performance, there are signs of both bullish and bearish activity.

Front ATM IV46.63%
Current IV48.65%
IV Rank28.69
IV Percentile34.66%
25Δ skew-0.51
Term slope1.69
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread16.33%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
48.3%46.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-047.0046.63%
2026-09-1114.0046.20%
2026-09-1821.0048.32%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$442.50
Long strike$440.00
Net credit / share$0.50
Credit / width20.00%
$50$-200$438.63$443.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$485.00
Long strike$487.50
Net credit / share$0.60
Credit / width24.00%
$60$-190$483.63$488.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (48.65%) suggests market participants anticipate significant price swings in the coming weeks.
  • The term structure shows a slight upward slope (1.69 points), indicating that longer-dated options are priced with slightly higher volatility than near-term options.
  • Skew is balanced, suggesting neutral sentiment towards potential upside and downside moves.
  • Bullish activity is evident in the demand for call options, particularly those with strikes above the current price.
  • Bearish sentiment is reflected in the put option buying, especially at strike prices below the current level.
Risk context
  • High implied volatility could lead to significant price swings, increasing risk for option traders.
  • China exposure and potential export controls remain a key risk factor for the company.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score59.30

The market appears to be digesting recent earnings results and weighing the impact of both positive and negative factors on AMAT's future prospects.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.41B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.44%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread16.33%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Aug 28, 2026 9:57 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $442.50 | $37.50 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$367.85B
P/E (TTM)45.8×
Beta1.60
52-week range$154.47 – $739.67
52-week return193.42%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity39.78%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share30.13

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity8feca9dbbaf2f3affd0b2c5d

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy