Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank58.2/ 100
Official close$454.01-14.84 (-3.17%)
Bid$453.00
Ask$457.21
Previous close$468.85
ATR (14)4.88%
RSI (14)40.8
Volume2.41M
Model reference$450.00
Upside scenario$485.00
Risk reference$430.00
Decision summary

AMAT Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

Despite a recent pullback, AMAT's strong Q3 earnings and positive outlook for AI-driven demand suggest continued bullish momentum. The stock is trading below its moving averages but above key support levels. While elevated valuation and semiconductor sector weakness pose risks, the long-term growth potential in AI wafer fabrication equipment remains attractive.

Wheel contextThe recent pullback presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a long-term outlook on AMAT's growth prospects.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy-the-dip / accumulate if support holds; high uncertainty given today's decline and mixed short-term technicals.

Three-month outlook

Constructive on continued AI-driven wafer-fab-equipment spending, strong Q4 guidance, and multi-year customer visibility into 2027-2030, which could support a re-rating toward analyst targets in the $640+ range if momentum returns. However, significant uncertainty remains: trailing valuation is elevated (P/E ~40), the stock has already pulled back sharply from its 52-week high near $740, semiconductor-cycle timing and China exposure are risks, and any disappointment versus very high expectations or broader market rotation could lead to further downside. Outcomes depend heavily on execution against guidance and the sustainability of AI capex.


Market sentiment context

Mixed but generally constructive on the longer-term AI/WFE thesis. Several traders and accounts view the recent pullback as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity, citing solid fundamentals, options flow (calls purchased), and technical support near 450. Others note high valuation, post-earnings disappointment despite a beat, and today's semiconductor-sector weakness. Comments highlight services growth, packaging/DRAM strength, and institutional interest, while acknowledging the stock has already priced in much of the near-term good news.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$479.45
50D SMA$520.74
200D SMA$410.64
9D EMA$461.43
21D EMA$478.02
20D MVWAP$485.92
YTD VWAP$457.54
Daily reference VWAP$455.14
Price vs 20D SMA-5.31%
Price vs 50D SMA-12.81%
Price vs 200D SMA10.56%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)40.45
RSI (14)40.80
RSI (21)42.97
Stochastic K48.09
Stochastic D41.96
MACD line-19.05
MACD histogram-19.66
ADX (14)18.90
MACD acceleration1.46
RSI velocity0.37
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.54
ATR (14) %4.88%
Bollinger upper$537.61
Bollinger middle$479.45
Bollinger lower$421.30
Bollinger position0.28%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility45.62%
Observed range position6.30%
5D true high$474.04
5D true low$426.13
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.41M
20D average volume3.63M
Volume vs 20D average0.66x
20D SMA velocity-3.34
50D SMA velocity-4.33
Institutional flow-2.81
ATR velocity-0.54
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$454.01
DateSep 10, 2026
Volume2.41M
Vwap D$455.14
Mvwap 20$485.92
Change-14.84
Change Percentage 3.17%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$479.45
Sma 50$520.74
Sma 200$410.64
Ema 9$461.43
Ema 21$478.02
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 740.45
Rsi 1440.80
Rsi 2142.97
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K48.09
Stoch D41.96
Macd Line-19.05
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-19.66
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr22.15
Atr Pct4.88%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv54.16
Iv Rank34.00
Iv Percentile53.39%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper537.6
Bb Middle479.5
Bb Lower421.3
Bb Pctb0.28
True High$468.85
True Low$450.56
True High 5d$474.04
True Low 5d$426.13
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.34
Sma50$-4.33
Mvwap20$-2.81
Macd1.46
Rsi0.37
Volume-359,130
Atr-0.54
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
92
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
43
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
44

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Pullback

Despite a recent pullback, AMAT's strong Q3 earnings and positive outlook for AI-driven demand suggest continued bullish momentum. The stock is trading below its moving averages but above key support levels. While elevated valuation and semiconductor sector weakness pose risks, the long-term growth potential in AI wafer fabrication equipment remains attractive.

Front ATM IV56.08%
Current IV49.91%
IV Rank27.54
IV Percentile36.65%
25Δ skew-1.35
Term slope-5.88
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread4.26%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
56.1%50.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-111.0056.08%
2026-09-188.0050.65%
2026-09-2515.0050.20%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$450.00
Long strike$447.50
Net credit / share$0.61
Credit / width24.40%
$61$-189$446.13$451.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$467.50
Long strike$470.00
Net credit / share$0.54
Credit / width21.40%
$54$-196$466.13$471.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • AMAT exceeded Q3 earnings expectations with record revenue and EPS growth.
  • Strong guidance for Q4 suggests continued strong demand.
  • AI and data center demand are cited as key drivers of future growth.
  • Institutional interest and positive analyst sentiment remain high.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation may limit upside potential in the near term.
  • Semiconductor sector weakness could impact AMAT's share price.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score66.00

The recent pullback presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a long-term outlook on AMAT's growth prospects.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.09B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.93%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread4.26%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 10, 2026 9:31 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $457.50 | $7.83 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$372.08B
P/E (TTM)40.2×
Beta1.63
52-week range$161.75 – $739.67
52-week return191.76%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identitydd1f7068df3c83ad2a63be3d

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry AMAT from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy