Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank57.0/ 100
Official close$441.85-16.54 (-3.61%)
Bid$442.50
Ask$443.30
Previous close$458.39
ATR (14)5.83%
RSI (14)34.0
Volume4.13M
Model reference$438.00
Upside scenario$475.00
Risk reference$415.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Dip

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays a mixed sentiment following a recent earnings-driven decline. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the stock's future direction, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, suggesting some expectation for near-term stability. The skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias. However, the underlying price has fallen significantly from its recent highs, and technical indicators suggest potential oversold conditions.

Wheel contextThe option market shows a mixed sentiment with elevated implied volatility and a slight backwardation in the term structure.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious/speculative long for potential 1-3 week oversold rebound if market stabilizes, given record fundamentals and Q4 guide vs. technical weakness. High uncertainty from post-earnings selloff, valuation, and sentiment; not a high-conviction entry.

Three-month outlook

Constructive on AI/semiconductor capex supercycle with multi-year customer visibility (some to 2030), strong Q4, and 2027 growth expected; analysts see ~45%+ upside to ~$640. However, high uncertainty: recent 25%+ drawdown from highs despite records, possible further multiple compression if cycle/China/geopolitics weaken, insider selling, and if AI spending digestions occur. Volatile path possible toward $500-600 recovery or lower if broader market/risk-off persists. Identify execution and macro risks clearly.


Market sentiment context

Mixed to cautious/watchful. Some note oversold technical buy signals (e.g., Japanese 'three gaps down' pattern) and enduring AI/semiconductor demand; others highlight greedy market punishing strong beats, high valuations (~40x trailing), insider distribution, and risk of multiple compression. Promotional/spam posts common. Overall not strongly bullish after sharp pullback; sentiment separates real growth from AI hype.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$503.05
50D SMA$543.99
200D SMA$403.81
9D EMA$473.37
21D EMA$495.34
20D MVWAP$505.81
YTD VWAP$457.70
Daily reference VWAP$444.04
Price vs 20D SMA-12.17%
Price vs 50D SMA-18.78%
Price vs 200D SMA9.42%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)19.72
RSI (14)34.01
RSI (21)39.67
Stochastic K2.54
Stochastic D5.17
MACD line-21.06
MACD histogram-15.87
ADX (14)17.50
MACD acceleration-1.80
RSI velocity-2.55
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.66
ATR (14) %5.83%
Bollinger upper$563.70
Bollinger middle$503.05
Bollinger lower$442.40
Bollinger position0.00%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility44.16%
Observed range position1.88%
5D true high$484.98
5D true low$438.83
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume4.13M
20D average volume3.54M
Volume vs 20D average1.17x
20D SMA velocity-3.51
50D SMA velocity-3.26
Institutional flow-3.16
ATR velocity-0.66
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$441.85
DateSep 1, 2026
Volume4.13M
Vwap D$444.04
Mvwap 20$505.81
Change-16.54
Change Percentage 3.61%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$503.05
Sma 50$543.99
Sma 200$403.81
Ema 9$473.37
Ema 21$495.34
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 719.72
Rsi 1434.01
Rsi 2139.67
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K2.54
Stoch D5.17
Macd Line-21.06
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-15.87
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr25.75
Atr Pct5.83%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv48.35
Iv Rank28.26
Iv Percentile34.13%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper563.7
Bb Middle503.1
Bb Lower442.4
Bb Pctb0.00
True High$458.39
True Low$438.83
True High 5d$484.98
True Low 5d$438.83
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.51
Sma50$-3.26
Mvwap20$-3.16
Macd-1.80
Rsi-2.55
Volume357,951
Atr-0.66
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskHigh
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
92
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
58
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
42
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
38

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Dip

The AMAT option market displays a mixed sentiment following a recent earnings-driven decline. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the stock's future direction, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, suggesting some expectation for near-term stability. The skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias. However, the underlying price has fallen significantly from its recent highs, and technical indicators suggest potential oversold conditions.

Front ATM IV50.75%
Current IV46.94%
IV Rank26.20
IV Percentile29.37%
25Δ skew-0.50
Term slope-4.00
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread15.83%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
50.8%45.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-043.0050.75%
2026-09-1110.0045.68%
2026-09-1817.0046.75%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$427.50
Long strike$425.00
Net credit / share$0.56
Credit / width22.40%
$56$-194$423.63$428.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$455.00
Long strike$457.50
Net credit / share$0.51
Credit / width20.60%
$51$-199$453.63$458.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 46.94%, reflecting market uncertainty after the recent earnings report.
  • The term structure shows a slight backwardation with near-term options slightly cheaper than longer-dated options.
  • The delta 25 skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias in the market.
  • The stock price has fallen significantly from its recent highs, suggesting potential for further downside risk.
Risk context
  • Significant pullback from recent highs raises concerns about further downside risk.
  • Elevated implied volatility suggests potential for continued price swings.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score56.20

The option market shows a mixed sentiment with elevated implied volatility and a slight backwardation in the term structure.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.82B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.18%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread15.83%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 1, 2026 11:54 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-04 | short $445.00 | $9.03 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$350.65B
P/E (TTM)45.8×
Beta1.60
52-week range$154.47 – $739.67
52-week return185.14%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity39.78%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share30.13

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity153130c35640c6dc4d807c2d

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy