Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank56.5/ 100
Official close$465.00-7.79 (-1.65%)
Bid$464.25
Ask$465.00
Previous close$472.79
ATR (14)4.79%
RSI (14)44.4
Volume1.93M
Model reference$462.00
Upside scenario$492.00
Risk reference$445.00
Decision summary

AMAT Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Dip

BalancedHigh confidence

Despite a recent dip following strong Q3 earnings, AMAT's options market suggests bullish sentiment. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average, and the term structure shows backwardation with higher implied volatility for shorter expirations. This indicates traders are expecting potential upside movement in the near term. The positive news flow surrounding AI demand and strong guidance also contributes to the bullish outlook.

Wheel contextAMAT's options market is showing signs of bullishness despite recent weakness. Traders are positioning for potential upside in the near term.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Speculative buy-the-dip if 460 support holds for 1-3 week bounce; high uncertainty from mixed/negative short-term technicals, recent weakness, and elevated expectations. Not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Constructive bias from AI infrastructure spending, raised 2026-2027 growth outlooks (semiconductor systems outgrowing market), record results/guidance, and analyst targets implying 30%+ upside. However, significant uncertainty: stock ~37% below 52-week high, 40x trailing P/E, semiconductor cyclicality, China exposure, potential macro/interest-rate pressures, and history of selling the news. Could recover toward $550 or extend correction depending on Q4 execution and broader market. High volatility likely.


Market sentiment context

Mixed-to-cautiously optimistic. Dip-buying interest from some citing AI fundamentals, strong ROE/FCF, options call sweeps, and technical bull-flag setups targeting $546+. Others highlight post-earnings selloff despite beats, high valuations, and 'perfection priced in'. Several promotional/spam posts. Overall, long-term AI/semiconductor tailwinds acknowledged but near-term caution on volatility and high expectations.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$484.16
50D SMA$526.12
200D SMA$409.47
9D EMA$463.29
21D EMA$480.42
20D MVWAP$489.67
YTD VWAP$457.55
Daily reference VWAP$468.89
Price vs 20D SMA-3.16%
Price vs 50D SMA-10.89%
Price vs 200D SMA14.50%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)50.08
RSI (14)44.38
RSI (21)45.09
Stochastic K46.63
Stochastic D30.90
MACD line-19.44
MACD histogram-19.82
ADX (14)18.97
MACD acceleration1.58
RSI velocity3.81
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.43
ATR (14) %4.79%
Bollinger upper$548.55
Bollinger middle$484.16
Bollinger lower$419.77
Bollinger position0.38%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility48.23%
Observed range position11.47%
5D true high$474.04
5D true low$426.13
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.93M
20D average volume3.67M
Volume vs 20D average0.53x
20D SMA velocity-3.18
50D SMA velocity-3.95
Institutional flow-2.70
ATR velocity-0.43
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$465.00
DateSep 9, 2026
Volume1.93M
Vwap D$468.89
Mvwap 20$489.67
Change-7.79
Change Percentage 1.65%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$484.16
Sma 50$526.12
Sma 200$409.47
Ema 9$463.29
Ema 21$480.42
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 750.08
Rsi 1444.38
Rsi 2145.09
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K46.63
Stoch D30.90
Macd Line-19.44
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-19.82
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr22.44
Atr Pct4.79%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv53.19
Iv Rank34.15
Iv Percentile47.81%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper548.6
Bb Middle484.2
Bb Lower419.8
Bb Pctb0.38
True High$474.04
True Low$463.78
True High 5d$474.04
True Low 5d$426.13
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.18
Sma50$-3.95
Mvwap20$-2.70
Macd1.58
Rsi3.81
Volume-453,308
Atr-0.43
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
93
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
60
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
45
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
53

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Dip

Despite a recent dip following strong Q3 earnings, AMAT's options market suggests bullish sentiment. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average, and the term structure shows backwardation with higher implied volatility for shorter expirations. This indicates traders are expecting potential upside movement in the near term. The positive news flow surrounding AI demand and strong guidance also contributes to the bullish outlook.

Front ATM IV57.89%
Current IV53.75%
IV Rank34.97
IV Percentile51.79%
25Δ skew-0.15
Term slope-5.77
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.03%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
57.9%52.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-112.0057.89%
2026-09-189.0053.00%
2026-09-2516.0052.12%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$455.00
Long strike$452.50
Net credit / share$0.57
Credit / width22.60%
$57$-193$451.13$456.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$482.50
Long strike$485.00
Net credit / share$0.54
Credit / width21.60%
$54$-196$481.13$486.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • AMAT's options market displays a bullish skew, with call options trading at a premium compared to put options.
  • The stock is currently trading above its 200-day moving average, suggesting long-term support.
  • The term structure of implied volatility shows backwardation, indicating higher expected volatility for shorter expirations and potential for near-term price movement.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuations could pose a risk if earnings fail to meet expectations.
  • Macroeconomic headwinds and interest rate pressures could impact the semiconductor sector.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score61.90

AMAT's options market is showing signs of bullishness despite recent weakness. Traders are positioning for potential upside in the near term.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$904.17M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.57%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.03%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 9, 2026 9:31 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $472.50 | $9.98 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$372.08B
P/E (TTM)40.2×
Beta1.63
52-week range$161.75 – $739.67
52-week return191.76%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity328a51ed125428fffb69959a

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy