Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank54.6/ 100
Official close$422.35-1.86 (-0.44%)
Bid$423.38
Ask$424.90
Previous close$424.21
ATR (14)5.19%
RSI (14)34.1
Volume2.92M
Model reference$415.00
Upside scenario$450.00
Risk reference$400.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amid Recent Weakness

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays a mixed sentiment towards the stock following recent price declines. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty and potential for further movement, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, suggesting some expectation of near-term stability. The skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias. However, the underlying stock has experienced significant downward pressure in recent weeks, driven by broader semiconductor sector weakness.

Wheel contextAMAT's recent price decline presents potential opportunities for option traders seeking to capitalize on volatility or express directional views.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious long/hold for potential 1-3 week oversold bounce near 200DMA support amid high uncertainty from downtrend, high beta and sector volatility; not a high-conviction setup.

Three-month outlook

Constructive on strong AI/HBM/foundry demand, Q4 guidance, multi-year visibility and analyst targets implying 50%+ upside by year-end, with next catalyst Nov 12 earnings. Significant uncertainty remains from elevated valuation (trailing P/E 36 vs forward 24), China revenue exposure (~24%), potential WFE cycle digestion, geopolitics, high beta (1.6+) and recent sharp drawdown from 52-week highs; outcomes highly sensitive to broader market and semiconductor spending trends.


Market sentiment context

Mixed-to-cautiously optimistic: long-term holders cite AI-driven demand, wide moat, services growth >20% YoY and analyst upgrades as reasons to accumulate on pullback (noted as -42% from June peak, not bubble-like); others flag expensive 39x trailing earnings vs historical 18x for equipment makers and 'perfection priced in' after beats; recent posts highlight volatility and high expectations; promotional spam common.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$465.69
50D SMA$509.84
200D SMA$413.66
9D EMA$446.79
21D EMA$466.79
20D MVWAP$466.00
YTD VWAP$457.20
Daily reference VWAP$422.64
Price vs 20D SMA-9.56%
Price vs 50D SMA-17.39%
Price vs 200D SMA1.82%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)26.47
RSI (14)34.11
RSI (21)38.68
Stochastic K19.56
Stochastic D31.50
MACD line-21.58
MACD histogram-19.95
ADX (14)20.39
MACD acceleration-0.84
RSI velocity-2.23
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.10
ATR (14) %5.19%
Bollinger upper$516.64
Bollinger middle$465.69
Bollinger lower$414.75
Bollinger position0.06%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility42.69%
Observed range position0.00%
5D true high$474.04
5D true low$416.76
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.92M
20D average volume3.15M
Volume vs 20D average0.93x
20D SMA velocity-4.59
50D SMA velocity-3.63
Institutional flow-6.64
ATR velocity-0.10
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$422.35
DateSep 15, 2026
Volume2.92M
Vwap D$422.64
Mvwap 20$466.00
Change-1.86
Change Percentage 0.44%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$465.69
Sma 50$509.84
Sma 200$413.66
Ema 9$446.79
Ema 21$466.79
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 726.47
Rsi 1434.11
Rsi 2138.68
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K19.56
Stoch D31.50
Macd Line-21.58
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-19.95
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr21.85
Atr Pct5.19%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv49.23
Iv Rank23.82
Iv Percentile34.26%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper516.6
Bb Middle465.7
Bb Lower414.8
Bb Pctb0.06
True High$429.99
True Low$416.76
True High 5d$474.04
True Low 5d$416.76
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.59
Sma50$-3.63
Mvwap20$-6.64
Macd-0.84
Rsi-2.23
Volume167,172
Atr-0.10
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
95
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
61
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
35
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
39

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amid Recent Weakness

The AMAT option market displays a mixed sentiment towards the stock following recent price declines. While implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty and potential for further movement, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, suggesting some expectation of near-term stability. The skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias. However, the underlying stock has experienced significant downward pressure in recent weeks, driven by broader semiconductor sector weakness.

Front ATM IV56.26%
Current IV48.71%
IV Rank23.00
IV Percentile33.47%
25Δ skew0.01
Term slope-7.13
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread10.01%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
56.3%49.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-183.0056.26%
2026-09-2510.0049.43%
2026-10-0217.0049.13%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$405.00
Long strike$402.50
Net credit / share$0.59
Credit / width23.40%
$59$-191$401.13$406.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$435.00
Long strike$437.50
Net credit / share$0.52
Credit / width20.80%
$52$-198$433.63$438.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 48.71%, reflecting market uncertainty and potential for price swings.
  • The term structure shows a slight backwardation, with near-term options slightly cheaper than longer-dated options, suggesting some expectation of stability in the near future.
  • The delta 25 skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias in the market.
  • The stock has declined ~16% over the past month and is trading near its 200-day moving average after reaching a 52-week high of $739.67.
Risk context
  • Elevated implied volatility suggests a higher risk of significant price swings in either direction.
  • The stock's high beta (1.60) indicates it is more sensitive to broader market movements, adding to the risk profile.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score60.70

AMAT's recent price decline presents potential opportunities for option traders seeking to capitalize on volatility or express directional views.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.23B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.61%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread10.01%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 15, 2026 10:08 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $425.00 | $9.50 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$336.65B
P/E (TTM)36.3×
Beta1.63
52-week range$164.00 – $739.67
52-week return168.29%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity8abeca355b5ff0ec1d120078

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy