Download daily PDF
Latest workspace
Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Applied Materials Inc / AMAT

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank54.6/ 100
Official close$443.61+26.21 (+6.28%)
Bid$445.19
Ask$446.00
Previous close$417.40
ATR (14)4.87%
RSI (14)43.8
Volume5.32M
Model reference$430.00
Upside scenario$470.00
Risk reference$410.00
Decision summary

AMAT Option Market Prices in Bullish Sentiment

BalancedHigh confidence

The AMAT option market displays bullish sentiment, driven by recent positive news and strong earnings results. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure shows a slight contango, suggesting potential for further upside. Strong institutional buying and analyst upgrades contribute to the optimistic outlook.

Wheel contextBullish sentiment in AMAT options is driven by strong fundamentals and positive news flow. The recent rally suggests investors are optimistic about future growth prospects.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy on any near-term pullback given today's news-driven surge and mixed technicals after the recent decline from highs; high uncertainty from volatility, bearish MACD and position below the 50-day MA.

Three-month outlook

Constructive due to robust AI-driven semiconductor equipment demand, raised 2026-2027 growth commentary and solid Q4 guidance, with analysts implying roughly 47% upside to the $641 average target. Significant uncertainty remains around the elevated 36x TTM P/E versus historical averages near 20x, potential gross-margin pressure, China-related export and geopolitical risks, and the sustainability of the current capex cycle.

Market sentiment context

Recent X posts mentioning AMAT consist almost entirely of promotional spam for WhatsApp trading groups rather than genuine investor commentary, indicating very limited organic discussion or clear bullish/bearish consensus.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$454.23
50D SMA$501.12
200D SMA$416.26
9D EMA$437.62
21D EMA$456.83
20D MVWAP$452.03
YTD VWAP$456.66
Daily reference VWAP$436.52
Price vs 20D SMA-2.13%
Price vs 50D SMA-11.28%
Price vs 200D SMA6.80%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)50.36
RSI (14)43.79
RSI (21)43.93
Stochastic K22.33
Stochastic D11.74
MACD line-21.59
MACD histogram-21.23
ADX (14)22.13
MACD acceleration0.00
RSI velocity3.23
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.07
ATR (14) %4.87%
Bollinger upper$501.88
Bollinger middle$454.23
Bollinger lower$406.58
Bollinger position0.40%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility47.92%
Observed range position9.49%
5D true high$456.49
5D true low$411.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume5.32M
20D average volume3.20M
Volume vs 20D average1.66x
20D SMA velocity-3.82
50D SMA velocity-2.91
Institutional flow-4.66
ATR velocity-0.07
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$443.61
DateSep 18, 2026
Volume5.32M
Vwap D$436.52
Mvwap 20$452.03
Change26.21
Change Percentage6.28%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$454.23
Sma 50$501.12
Sma 200$416.26
Ema 9$437.62
Ema 21$456.83
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 750.36
Rsi 1443.79
Rsi 2143.93
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K22.33
Stoch D11.74
Macd Line-21.59
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-21.23
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr21.65
Atr Pct4.87%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv42.72
Iv Rank13.55
Iv Percentile16.73%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper501.9
Bb Middle454.2
Bb Lower406.6
Bb Pctb0.40
True High$445.00
True Low$417.40
True High 5d$456.49
True Low 5d$411.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.82
Sma50$-2.91
Mvwap20$-4.66
Macd0.00
Rsi3.23
Volume797,339
Atr-0.07
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 12, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
97
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
59
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
44
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
76
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
25

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

AMAT Option Market Prices in Bullish Sentiment

The AMAT option market displays bullish sentiment, driven by recent positive news and strong earnings results. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure shows a slight contango, suggesting potential for further upside. Strong institutional buying and analyst upgrades contribute to the optimistic outlook.

Front ATM IV45.12%
Current IV46.46%
IV Rank19.45
IV Percentile22.71%
25Δ skew-0.52
Term slope2.94
Term structureContango
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.96%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
48.2%45.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-257.0045.12%—
2026-10-0214.0048.15%—
2026-10-0921.0048.06%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$417.50
Long strike$415.00
Net credit / share$0.63
Credit / width25.00%
$63$-187$413.63$418.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$455.00
Long strike$457.50
Net credit / share$0.55
Credit / width22.00%
$55$-195$453.63$458.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • AMAT shares rose 4.39% on record Q3 FY2026 results and a $5 billion investment in India.
  • Analysts maintain a 'Strong Buy' consensus with average target prices between $641-$674.
  • The term structure shows a slight contango, indicating potential for further upside.
  • Institutional buying is noted following the earnings release.
Risk context
  • Elevated implied volatility may indicate heightened uncertainty surrounding future price movements.
  • China-related export risks and geopolitical tensions could negatively impact the semiconductor industry.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score61.70

Bullish sentiment in AMAT options is driven by strong fundamentals and positive news flow. The recent rally suggests investors are optimistic about future growth prospects.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$2.36B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.18%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.96%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score75.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

AMAT Covered Call signal

Sep 18, 2026 9:45 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $425.00 | $13.83 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Applied Materials Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$331.25B
P/E (TTM)36.3×
Beta1.65
52-week range$171.58 – $739.67
52-week return139.36%
Shares outstanding793.96M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity40.44%
Operating margin29.64%
Net margin30.05%
Debt / equity0.32×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)3.23%
EPS growth (3Y)5.19%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)11.00%
Revenue / share (TTM)38.55
Book value / share32.29

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.85%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1972-10-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity9993341deec9ed8f0f0f5eb7

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry AMAT from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Sign in to follow AMATCompare plans
Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy