Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank64.9/ 100
Official close$305.16-5.80 (-1.87%)
Bid$305.00
Ask$306.95
Previous close$310.96
ATR (14)5.09%
RSI (14)53.0
Volume3.08M
Model reference$302.00
Upside scenario$325.00
Risk reference$290.00
Decision summary

LRCX Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Dip

BalancedHigh confidence

LRCX is showing bullish signs despite a recent dip below its 50-day moving average. The stock has strong fundamentals, driven by robust earnings and positive guidance for continued growth in the AI chip equipment sector. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the long-term uptrend appears intact.

Wheel contextLRCX is showing signs of strength despite recent volatility. The bullish sentiment from analysts and positive earnings results suggest continued upside potential.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious tactical long or hold for a 1-3 week horizon, favoring entries on dips toward support rather than chasing strength. Momentum is neutral and the stock is digesting the ex-dividend date amid high volatility; fundamental backdrop is supportive but near-term direction is uncertain. This is not a high-conviction trade and is not investment advice.

Three-month outlook

Moderately constructive bias toward the $340-380 area if September-quarter execution and subsequent guidance confirm AI-driven WFE strength, consistent with the Strong Buy analyst consensus and ongoing capital returns. Key risks and uncertainties include the elevated valuation (limited room for disappointment), expected decline in China revenue mix, semiconductor cyclicality, potential AI infrastructure sentiment shifts, and the reaction to the estimated Oct 21 earnings report. A break of recent support could retest the $270-290 zone. Outcomes are highly path-dependent; past performance and analyst targets are not guarantees.


Market sentiment context

Mixed and low-signal. Substantive commentary notes accelerating fundamentals (record results, raised WFE outlook, AI/HBM and foundry demand) against a chart that remains structurally cautious until a higher high above roughly $335-340. Some accounts are buying dips or citing AI equipment tailwinds; others flag premium valuation and prefer substantially lower entries. Recent keyword searches are heavily polluted by promotional spam. Overall tone is cautious optimism tempered by valuation and cyclicality concerns. Uncertainty: X volume is noisy, engagement on relevant posts is modest, and sentiment can reverse rapidly with peer moves or AI headlines.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$296.88
50D SMA$305.26
200D SMA$269.43
9D EMA$295.85
21D EMA$298.19
20D MVWAP$294.30
YTD VWAP$276.58
Daily reference VWAP$305.20
Price vs 20D SMA3.50%
Price vs 50D SMA0.66%
Price vs 200D SMA14.05%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)61.11
RSI (14)52.97
RSI (21)50.71
Stochastic K72.96
Stochastic D57.32
MACD line-4.30
MACD histogram-6.69
ADX (14)11.61
MACD acceleration1.87
RSI velocity2.48
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.06
ATR (14) %5.09%
Bollinger upper$329.66
Bollinger middle$296.88
Bollinger lower$264.11
Bollinger position0.66%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility61.05%
Observed range position30.35%
5D true high$311.39
5D true low$266.90
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.08M
20D average volume3.53M
Volume vs 20D average0.87x
20D SMA velocity-0.31
50D SMA velocity-0.71
Institutional flow-0.16
ATR velocity-0.06
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$305.16
DateSep 23, 2026
Volume3.08M
Vwap D$305.20
Mvwap 20$294.30
Change-5.80
Change Percentage 1.87%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$296.88
Sma 50$305.26
Sma 200$269.43
Ema 9$295.85
Ema 21$298.19
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 761.11
Rsi 1452.97
Rsi 2150.71
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K72.96
Stoch D57.32
Macd Line-4.30
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-6.69
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr15.65
Atr Pct5.09%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv61.25
Iv Rank33.95
Iv Percentile49.40%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper329.7
Bb Middle296.9
Bb Lower264.1
Bb Pctb0.66
True High$310.96
True Low$298.56
True High 5d$311.39
True Low 5d$266.90
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.31
Sma50$-0.71
Mvwap20$-0.16
Macd1.87
Rsi2.48
Volume-913,637
Atr-0.06
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
77
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
62
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
79
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
51

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Shows Bullish Signs Despite Recent Dip

LRCX is showing bullish signs despite a recent dip below its 50-day moving average. The stock has strong fundamentals, driven by robust earnings and positive guidance for continued growth in the AI chip equipment sector. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the long-term uptrend appears intact.

Front ATM IV63.31%
Current IV60.86%
IV Rank33.29
IV Percentile46.61%
25Δ skew0.94
Term slope-6.85
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread9.26%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
63.3%56.5%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-252.0063.31%
2026-10-029.0059.26%
2026-10-0916.0056.46%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$297.50
Long strike$295.00
Net credit / share$0.57
Credit / width22.60%
$57$-193$293.63$298.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$317.50
Long strike$320.00
Net credit / share$0.53
Credit / width21.40%
$53$-197$316.13$321.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Strong Buy analyst consensus with a price target near $373 (roughly 22% upside).
  • Recent earnings beat expectations and guidance exceeded estimates, driven by strong demand for AI chip equipment.
  • The stock remains well above its 200-day moving average, supporting the longer-term uptrend.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation (trailing P/E around 52-54) leaves limited room for disappointment.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score61.10

LRCX is showing signs of strength despite recent volatility. The bullish sentiment from analysts and positive earnings results suggest continued upside potential.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$947.27M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.63%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread9.26%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Sep 23, 2026 9:35 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $297.50 | $12.60 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$389.11B
P/E (TTM)52.0×
Beta1.95
52-week range$125.00 – $438.50
52-week return138.17%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity9caad4b242ddd304b6503cdc

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy