Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank58.1/ 100
Official close$290.50-10.99 (-3.65%)
Bid$287.00
Ask$290.20
Previous close$301.49
ATR (14)5.88%
RSI (14)40.5
Volume3.74M
Model reference$282.00
Upside scenario$310.00
Risk reference$270.00
Decision summary

LRCX Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Dip

BalancedHigh confidence

The LRCX option market currently suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent price decline. While the stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, the implied volatility (IV) remains elevated, indicating anticipation of potential upside movement. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options priced at a premium compared to longer-dated options, suggesting a belief in short-term price appreciation.

Wheel contextThe recent dip presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term perspective.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious hold or limited dip-buy; high uncertainty from short-term downtrend, mixed technicals, and today's negative catalysts. Wait for bounce confirmation above 290 or further test of support before adding. Volatility likely to persist into next 1-3 weeks.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but highly uncertain: AI-driven WFE demand, strong guidance, and lab investments support potential recovery toward $330-360 range (in line with analyst targets). Next earnings around Oct 21 could be a catalyst. Key risks include stretched valuation (trailing P/E >50), China exposure/export controls, semiconductor cycle volatility, and possible sector rotation. Could see 10-25% upside if momentum returns or retest of 250 area in a broader pullback. Macro and geopolitical factors add significant uncertainty.


Market sentiment context

Short-term cautious/negative amid today's drop, UBS PT trim, and insider sale; limited organic discussion dominated by promotional posts. Broader investor view remains constructive on AI/semiconductor spending, earnings beats, and raised guidance, with some calling Street growth estimates too conservative. Mixed overall with no strong consensus crowd.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$314.56
50D SMA$327.07
200D SMA$258.70
9D EMA$306.75
21D EMA$311.84
20D MVWAP$315.56
YTD VWAP$275.58
Daily reference VWAP$291.04
Price vs 20D SMA-7.74%
Price vs 50D SMA-11.27%
Price vs 200D SMA12.18%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)30.23
RSI (14)40.51
RSI (21)43.85
Stochastic K7.55
Stochastic D18.57
MACD line-4.67
MACD histogram-2.73
ADX (14)8.41
MACD acceleration-1.12
RSI velocity-3.30
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.39
ATR (14) %5.88%
Bollinger upper$340.67
Bollinger middle$314.56
Bollinger lower$288.45
Bollinger position0.03%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility48.78%
Observed range position20.91%
5D true high$321.41
5D true low$286.59
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.74M
20D average volume3.34M
Volume vs 20D average1.12x
20D SMA velocity-0.20
50D SMA velocity-1.86
Institutional flow0.30
ATR velocity-0.39
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$290.50
DateSep 1, 2026
Volume3.74M
Vwap D$291.04
Mvwap 20$315.56
Change-10.99
Change Percentage 3.65%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$314.56
Sma 50$327.07
Sma 200$258.70
Ema 9$306.75
Ema 21$311.84
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 730.23
Rsi 1440.51
Rsi 2143.85
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K7.55
Stoch D18.57
Macd Line-4.67
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-2.73
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr17.07
Atr Pct5.88%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv53.58
Iv Rank29.93
Iv Percentile30.56%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper340.7
Bb Middle314.6
Bb Lower288.5
Bb Pctb0.03
True High$301.49
True Low$286.59
True High 5d$321.41
True Low 5d$286.59
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.20
Sma50$-1.86
Mvwap20$0.30
Macd-1.12
Rsi-3.30
Volume305,645
Atr-0.39
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
87
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
59
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
47
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
37

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Dip

The LRCX option market currently suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent price decline. While the stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, the implied volatility (IV) remains elevated, indicating anticipation of potential upside movement. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options priced at a premium compared to longer-dated options, suggesting a belief in short-term price appreciation.

Front ATM IV62.31%
Current IV52.09%
IV Rank27.70
IV Percentile27.38%
25Δ skew-1.16
Term slope-8.63
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread9.88%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
62.3%52.5%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-043.0062.31%
2026-09-1110.0052.45%
2026-09-1817.0053.68%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$277.50
Long strike$275.00
Net credit / share$0.63
Credit / width25.20%
$63$-187$273.63$278.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$300.00
Long strike$302.50
Net credit / share$0.49
Credit / width19.40%
$49$-201$298.63$303.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated IV suggests market expectation for increased price volatility and potential upside.
  • Backwardated term structure implies higher expected returns in the near term.
  • Strong earnings beat and raised guidance support bullish outlook.
Risk context
  • Short-term downtrend and mixed technical signals warrant caution.
  • Elevated valuation (trailing P/E > 50) could limit upside potential.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score57.80

The recent dip presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term perspective.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.09B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.34%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread9.88%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Sep 1, 2026 9:36 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-04 | short $290.00 | $9.90 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$365.13B
P/E (TTM)56.2×
Beta1.87
52-week range$94.11 – $438.50
52-week return201.04%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity3dcdd952f223c634f76eb169

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy