Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank62.8/ 100
Official close$312.80-7.62 (-2.38%)
Bid$310.83
Ask$314.20
Previous close$320.42
ATR (14)4.98%
RSI (14)52.0
Volume2.46M
Model reference$310.00
Upside scenario$345.00
Risk reference$295.00
Decision summary

LRCX Option Market Prices in Continued AI-Driven Growth

BalancedHigh confidence

The US options market for LRCX reflects a bullish outlook, pricing in continued growth driven by the company's AI investments and strong demand for its products. The term structure is backwardated, with near-term implied volatility exceeding that of longer-dated options, suggesting expectations for continued upward price movement. While recent insider selling and stretched valuations warrant caution, the market remains optimistic about LRCX's future prospects.

Wheel contextThe market is pricing in strong demand for LRCX's products driven by AI and semiconductor trends.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious accumulation on dips given today's 1.4% pullback and mixed near-term technicals, supported by robust AI-driven fundamentals and guidance; high uncertainty from volatility, stretched valuation, and potential sector rotation

Three-month outlook

Constructive-to-bullish targeting $360-380 range (near analyst consensus ~$371) on continued AI/WFE strength, lab investments and raised outlook, but high uncertainty from semiconductor cycle risks, China exposure/export controls, valuation (P/E 55x), insider selling, and next earnings (Oct 21) as a potential volatility catalyst; stock has nearly tripled over 12 months so pullbacks or consolidation possible


Market sentiment context

Predominantly bullish among retail/investors citing AI/semiconductor rotation, dip-buying, strong guidance and PT hikes (e.g., $350-$420); some notes of insider selling and questions on how much growth is already priced in after the massive run; overall constructive chatter with limited bearish posts

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$313.69
50D SMA$318.81
200D SMA$262.62
9D EMA$307.92
21D EMA$309.83
20D MVWAP$314.00
YTD VWAP$276.10
Daily reference VWAP$316.94
Price vs 20D SMA0.69%
Price vs 50D SMA-0.93%
Price vs 200D SMA20.27%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)57.93
RSI (14)51.95
RSI (21)50.51
Stochastic K75.82
Stochastic D53.03
MACD line-2.97
MACD histogram-4.02
ADX (14)8.94
MACD acceleration1.19
RSI velocity3.29
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.18
ATR (14) %4.98%
Bollinger upper$343.63
Bollinger middle$313.69
Bollinger lower$283.74
Bollinger position0.54%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility52.77%
Observed range position35.08%
5D true high$322.21
5D true low$278.04
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.46M
20D average volume3.30M
Volume vs 20D average0.74x
20D SMA velocity0.25
50D SMA velocity-1.65
Institutional flow0.06
ATR velocity-0.18
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$312.80
DateSep 9, 2026
Volume2.46M
Vwap D$316.94
Mvwap 20$314.00
Change-7.62
Change Percentage 2.38%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$313.69
Sma 50$318.81
Sma 200$262.62
Ema 9$307.92
Ema 21$309.83
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 757.93
Rsi 1451.95
Rsi 2150.51
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K75.82
Stoch D53.03
Macd Line-2.97
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.02
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr15.74
Atr Pct4.98%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv58.71
Iv Rank37.14
Iv Percentile37.45%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper343.6
Bb Middle313.7
Bb Lower283.7
Bb Pctb0.54
True High$322.21
True Low$312.76
True High 5d$322.21
True Low 5d$278.04
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.25
Sma50$-1.65
Mvwap20$0.06
Macd1.19
Rsi3.29
Volume-375,579
Atr-0.18
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
90
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
59
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
67
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
50

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Option Market Prices in Continued AI-Driven Growth

The US options market for LRCX reflects a bullish outlook, pricing in continued growth driven by the company's AI investments and strong demand for its products. The term structure is backwardated, with near-term implied volatility exceeding that of longer-dated options, suggesting expectations for continued upward price movement. While recent insider selling and stretched valuations warrant caution, the market remains optimistic about LRCX's future prospects.

Front ATM IV63.53%
Current IV59.30%
IV Rank38.02
IV Percentile39.04%
25Δ skew0.10
Term slope-5.82
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.76%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
63.5%57.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-112.0063.53%
2026-09-189.0060.02%
2026-09-2516.0057.71%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$305.00
Long strike$302.50
Net credit / share$0.54
Credit / width21.80%
$54$-196$301.13$306.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$327.50
Long strike$330.00
Net credit / share$0.42
Credit / width17.00%
$42$-208$326.13$331.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • The front-month ATM IV is 63.53%, significantly higher than the 57.71% implied volatility for options expiring in two weeks.
  • The term structure is backwardated, with near-term IV exceeding longer-dated IV, indicating expectations for continued price appreciation.
  • Reference spreads suggest bullish sentiment, with Bull Put Spreads priced at a net credit of $0.54 per share and Bear Call Spreads at $0.42 per share.
Risk context
  • Recent insider selling may indicate some concerns about the stock's valuation.
  • LRCX's current P/E ratio of 55.6x is elevated, suggesting potential vulnerability to a market correction.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score59.00

The market is pricing in strong demand for LRCX's products driven by AI and semiconductor trends.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$775.87M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.54%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.76%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Sep 9, 2026 9:39 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $315.00 | $9.18 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$400.95B
P/E (TTM)53.0×
Beta1.95
52-week range$100.68 – $438.50
52-week return198.83%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity024d6c3dd0b9304d5ad20f1f

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry LRCX from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy