Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank64.0/ 100
Official close$306.00+17.89 (+6.21%)
Bid$305.41
Ask$306.35
Previous close$288.11
ATR (14)5.28%
RSI (14)51.4
Volume4.98M
Model reference$295.00
Upside scenario$322.00
Risk reference$280.00
Decision summary

LRCX Option Market Prices in Strong Fundamentals and Growth Potential

BalancedHigh confidence

The LRCX option market displays a bullish sentiment, reflecting optimism surrounding the company's recent record earnings, strong guidance, and expanding market share. Implied volatility is elevated but balanced, suggesting anticipation of potential price swings around upcoming earnings. The term structure exhibits backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term upside.

Wheel contextLRCX's strong fundamentals and growth prospects are driving investor optimism. The upcoming earnings release is likely to be a key catalyst for price movement.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious momentum buy after today's rebound, but mixed technicals (below 50-day SMA, fading MACD) and elevated valuation create high short-term uncertainty from volatility, potential profit-taking, and the Oct 21 earnings catalyst. Wait for confirmation or a pullback if possible.

Three-month outlook

Constructive on continued AI-driven WFE growth, raised spending outlook, strong guidance, and analyst targets implying $350-385 potential, supported by expanding services/installed base. Significant uncertainty remains due to premium valuation (50x TTM P/E), semiconductor cyclicality, China exposure (expected to decline), possible demand pauses, and broader market/macro risks. Next earnings on Oct 21, 2026 is a major potential catalyst. This is not financial advice.


Market sentiment context

Genuine discussion is sparse and mixed amid promotional spam; some posts note strong AI fundamentals, record results, and rebound potential after liquidity sweeps, while others remain cautious on high valuation after the large run-up, remaining lower-highs chart structure until a breakout above ~$335-340, and prefer waiting for cheaper levels. Overall tone is cautious-to-neutral.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$297.21
50D SMA$306.42
200D SMA$267.92
9D EMA$288.50
21D EMA$295.91
20D MVWAP$294.35
YTD VWAP$276.36
Daily reference VWAP$299.34
Price vs 20D SMA1.71%
Price vs 50D SMA-1.35%
Price vs 200D SMA12.82%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)59.80
RSI (14)51.36
RSI (21)49.55
Stochastic K37.29
Stochastic D21.00
MACD line-8.06
MACD histogram-7.65
ADX (14)12.80
MACD acceleration0.52
RSI velocity5.11
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.09
ATR (14) %5.28%
Bollinger upper$330.58
Bollinger middle$297.21
Bollinger lower$263.85
Bollinger position0.58%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility60.37%
Observed range position27.59%
5D true high$305.69
5D true low$265.37
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume4.98M
20D average volume3.46M
Volume vs 20D average1.44x
20D SMA velocity-1.20
50D SMA velocity-1.18
Institutional flow-1.66
ATR velocity0.09
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$306.00
DateSep 21, 2026
Volume4.98M
Vwap D$299.34
Mvwap 20$294.35
Change17.89
Change Percentage6.21%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$297.21
Sma 50$306.42
Sma 200$267.92
Ema 9$288.50
Ema 21$295.91
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 759.80
Rsi 1451.36
Rsi 2149.55
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K37.29
Stoch D21.00
Macd Line-8.06
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-7.65
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr15.95
Atr Pct5.28%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv61.12
Iv Rank33.73
Iv Percentile48.61%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper330.6
Bb Middle297.2
Bb Lower263.9
Bb Pctb0.58
True High$305.69
True Low$288.11
True High 5d$305.69
True Low 5d$265.37
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-1.20
Sma50$-1.18
Mvwap20$-1.66
Macd0.52
Rsi5.11
Volume546,324
Atr0.09
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
87
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
61
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
73
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
50

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Option Market Prices in Strong Fundamentals and Growth Potential

The LRCX option market displays a bullish sentiment, reflecting optimism surrounding the company's recent record earnings, strong guidance, and expanding market share. Implied volatility is elevated but balanced, suggesting anticipation of potential price swings around upcoming earnings. The term structure exhibits backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term upside.

Front ATM IV61.09%
Current IV60.25%
IV Rank32.28
IV Percentile45.42%
25Δ skew0.86
Term slope-4.82
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.56%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
61.1%56.3%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-254.0061.09%
2026-10-0211.0059.28%
2026-10-0918.0056.27%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$290.00
Long strike$287.50
Net credit / share$0.62
Credit / width24.80%
$62$-188$286.13$291.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$317.50
Long strike$320.00
Net credit / share$0.42
Credit / width17.00%
$42$-208$316.13$321.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is 60.25%, reflecting investor expectations for significant price movement in the coming weeks.
  • The front-month ATM IV is 61.09%, suggesting strong belief in potential upside around the next earnings release.
  • The term structure shows backwardation, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a bullish bias for the near future.
  • Strong technical indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest positive momentum despite recent pullbacks.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation at 50x TTM P/E could lead to profit-taking if earnings disappoint.
  • China exposure and broader semiconductor cyclicality pose potential risks to future growth.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score60.00

LRCX's strong fundamentals and growth prospects are driving investor optimism. The upcoming earnings release is likely to be a key catalyst for price movement.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.50B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.33%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.56%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Sep 21, 2026 9:36 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $290.00 | $8.75 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$377.24B
P/E (TTM)50.4×
Beta1.95
52-week range$125.00 – $438.50
52-week return128.08%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity550b416af9ae3d468a2b7685

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy