Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank53.1/ 100
Official close$301.14-0.76 (-0.25%)
Bid$299.50
Ask$300.70
Previous close$301.90
ATR (14)5.71%
RSI (14)44.3
Volume2.30M
Model reference$298.50
Upside scenario$322.00
Risk reference$289.00
Decision summary

LRCX Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The LRCX option market suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent 5% pullback. While near-term technicals are mixed, the implied volatility term structure is in backwardation, indicating expectations for price appreciation. Strong analyst ratings and positive earnings momentum contribute to the overall optimistic outlook.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in continued growth for LRCX, driven by strong demand for AI chips and a favorable industry outlook.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious opportunistic long on dip toward support for potential 1-3 week bounce, given oversold oscillators and AI tailwinds, but elevated uncertainty from geopolitics, valuation, and technical weakness. Not a high-conviction setup.

Three-month outlook

Constructive bias from robust AI/WFE demand, beat-and-raise results, R&D investments, and analyst targets implying ~19-23% upside, with potential for continued outperformance vs industry. However, high uncertainty: China trade/export restrictions (largest market exposure), stretched 52x trailing P/E, possible WFE spending slowdown, and recent price/volume weakness could drive volatility or further correction. Outcomes highly sensitive to macro/policy headlines; no guarantee of recovery to highs.


Market sentiment context

Predominantly bullish among visible posts, with repeated citations of Wall Street Strong Buy ratings for LRCX alongside NVDA/AMD/ASML in AI/semiconductor lists. Some highlight conservative analyst growth estimates (e.g., 19% seen as too low) and recent 5% drop as potential setup or descending triangle. Promotional/trading-signal posts mixed in; overall positive on AI demand and earnings momentum but limited organic discussion of risks.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$315.94
50D SMA$329.46
200D SMA$258.05
9D EMA$310.88
21D EMA$314.00
20D MVWAP$316.83
YTD VWAP$275.50
Daily reference VWAP$301.03
Price vs 20D SMA-4.71%
Price vs 50D SMA-8.63%
Price vs 200D SMA16.66%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)37.91
RSI (14)44.28
RSI (21)46.21
Stochastic K20.09
Stochastic D28.98
MACD line-3.17
MACD histogram-2.25
ADX (14)7.89
MACD acceleration-0.50
RSI velocity-1.31
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.53
ATR (14) %5.71%
Bollinger upper$339.41
Bollinger middle$315.94
Bollinger lower$292.46
Bollinger position0.19%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility54.73%
Observed range position26.90%
5D true high$321.41
5D true low$298.77
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.30M
20D average volume3.47M
Volume vs 20D average0.66x
20D SMA velocity0.61
50D SMA velocity-1.40
Institutional flow1.24
ATR velocity-0.53
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$301.14
DateAug 31, 2026
Volume2.46M
Vwap D$301.18
Mvwap 20$316.80
Change-0.76
Change Percentage 0.25%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$315.94
Sma 50$329.46
Sma 200$258.05
Ema 9$310.88
Ema 21$314.00
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 737.91
Rsi 1444.28
Rsi 2146.21
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K20.09
Stoch D28.98
Macd Line-3.17
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-2.25
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr17.23
Atr Pct5.71%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv53.67
Iv Rank30.06
Iv Percentile30.68%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper339.4
Bb Middle315.9
Bb Lower292.5
Bb Pctb0.19
True High$303.29
True Low$298.77
True High 5d$321.41
True Low 5d$298.77
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.61
Sma50$-1.40
Mvwap20$1.24
Macd-0.50
Rsi-1.31
Volume245,721
Atr-0.53
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
89
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
49
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
48
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
37

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The LRCX option market suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent 5% pullback. While near-term technicals are mixed, the implied volatility term structure is in backwardation, indicating expectations for price appreciation. Strong analyst ratings and positive earnings momentum contribute to the overall optimistic outlook.

Front ATM IV60.02%
Current IV54.15%
IV Rank30.78
IV Percentile31.87%
25Δ skew0.37
Term slope-5.99
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.05%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
60.0%52.0%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-044.0060.02%
2026-09-1111.0052.04%
2026-09-1818.0054.03%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$290.00
Long strike$287.50
Net credit / share$0.61
Credit / width24.40%
$61$-189$286.13$291.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$315.00
Long strike$317.50
Net credit / share$0.62
Credit / width24.60%
$62$-188$313.63$318.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility term structure is in backwardation, with shorter-dated options more expensive than longer-dated ones.
  • Analysts maintain a strong buy rating on LRCX with average 12-month price targets above current levels.
  • Recent earnings beat and raise, coupled with positive guidance for next quarter revenue, support bullish sentiment.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical risks related to China trade restrictions could negatively impact LRCX's performance.
  • Valuation concerns remain as the stock trades at a high P/E ratio.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score49.80

The market appears to be pricing in continued growth for LRCX, driven by strong demand for AI chips and a favorable industry outlook.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$693.69M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.28%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.05%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Aug 31, 2026 9:45 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-04 | short $300.00 | $8.60 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$381.90B
P/E (TTM)56.2×
Beta1.86
52-week range$94.11 – $438.50
52-week return190.04%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity25b1eead416652f2b560f61d

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy