Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Lam Research Corp / LRCX

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank65.0/ 100
Official close$323.00+15.35 (+4.99%)
Bid$323.00
Ask$325.00
Previous close$307.65
ATR (14)5.06%
RSI (14)53.9
Volume3.59M
Model reference$315.00
Upside scenario$345.00
Risk reference$298.00
Decision summary

LRCX Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The LRCX option market displays bullish sentiment, pricing in continued upside potential for the stock. This is reflected in a positive skew, with call options trading at a premium to put options. The term structure shows backwardation, indicating higher implied volatility for near-term expirations compared to longer-dated contracts. Strong earnings results and positive industry outlook contribute to this bullish sentiment.

Wheel contextLRCX's recent performance and positive market outlook suggest continued upside potential. However, the elevated valuation warrants caution.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious/neutral hold or buy on any modest pullback given mixed short-term technicals and recent bounce; high uncertainty from valuation and potential consolidation after strong run.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but uncertain: continued AI/WFE strength and raised guidance support potential move toward $370+ analyst targets by year-end, aided by next earnings (Oct 21). However, premium valuation (P/E ~55), China export risks, semiconductor cyclicality, and possible broader market volatility create significant downside uncertainty; a pullback toward $280-300 remains possible if momentum fades.


Market sentiment context

Predominantly positive among investors, emphasizing LRCX as a key 'picks-and-shovels' beneficiary of the AI semiconductor boom, strong Q4 results/guidance, and sector-wide equipment demand. Today's ~4% gain highlighted in semiconductor group rallies. Some posts note the big YTD run-up and question how much is already priced in, with trader groups forming around the name. Overall bullish tone on fundamentals and AI tailwinds.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$313.46
50D SMA$320.71
200D SMA$261.78
9D EMA$305.94
21D EMA$309.23
20D MVWAP$313.82
YTD VWAP$275.98
Daily reference VWAP$318.07
Price vs 20D SMA2.22%
Price vs 50D SMA-0.09%
Price vs 200D SMA22.40%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)63.09
RSI (14)53.91
RSI (21)51.64
Stochastic K54.54
Stochastic D31.57
MACD line-4.00
MACD histogram-4.28
ADX (14)9.18
MACD acceleration0.65
RSI velocity4.67
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.06
ATR (14) %5.06%
Bollinger upper$343.41
Bollinger middle$313.46
Bollinger lower$283.52
Bollinger position0.62%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility52.73%
Observed range position37.61%
5D true high$321.77
5D true low$278.04
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.59M
20D average volume3.34M
Volume vs 20D average1.08x
20D SMA velocity-0.05
50D SMA velocity-1.57
Institutional flow-0.30
ATR velocity-0.06
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$323.00
DateSep 8, 2026
Volume3.59M
Vwap D$318.07
Mvwap 20$313.82
Change15.35
Change Percentage4.99%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$313.46
Sma 50$320.71
Sma 200$261.78
Ema 9$305.94
Ema 21$309.23
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 763.09
Rsi 1453.91
Rsi 2151.64
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K54.54
Stoch D31.57
Macd Line-4.00
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.28
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr16.22
Atr Pct5.06%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv60.22
Iv Rank39.83
Iv Percentile45.02%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper343.4
Bb Middle313.5
Bb Lower283.5
Bb Pctb0.62
True High$321.77
True Low$307.65
True High 5d$321.77
True Low 5d$278.04
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.05
Sma50$-1.57
Mvwap20$-0.30
Macd0.65
Rsi4.67
Volume372,025
Atr-0.06
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
79
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
60
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
77
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
54

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LRCX Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential

The LRCX option market displays bullish sentiment, pricing in continued upside potential for the stock. This is reflected in a positive skew, with call options trading at a premium to put options. The term structure shows backwardation, indicating higher implied volatility for near-term expirations compared to longer-dated contracts. Strong earnings results and positive industry outlook contribute to this bullish sentiment.

Front ATM IV65.01%
Current IV60.95%
IV Rank40.92
IV Percentile47.81%
25Δ skew1.77
Term slope-4.27
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.22%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
65.0%60.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-113.0065.01%
2026-09-1810.0062.10%
2026-09-2517.0060.74%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$302.50
Long strike$300.00
Net credit / share$0.42
Credit / width16.60%
$42$-208$298.63$303.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$335.00
Long strike$337.50
Net credit / share$0.57
Credit / width22.60%
$57$-193$333.63$338.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting market expectations of significant price movement in the near future.
  • The 25-delta skew is positive, indicating a higher demand for call options compared to put options.
  • The term structure is backwardated, with higher implied volatility for near-term expirations.
  • Recent strong earnings results and positive industry outlook support bullish sentiment.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation could lead to a pullback if growth expectations are not met.
  • China export risks and broader market volatility pose potential downside risks.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score61.40

LRCX's recent performance and positive market outlook suggest continued upside potential. However, the elevated valuation warrants caution.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.15B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.31%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.22%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.60
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LRCX Covered Call signal

Sep 8, 2026 9:31 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $312.50 | $11.80 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Lam Research Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$384.97B
P/E (TTM)53.0×
Beta1.95
52-week range$100.68 – $438.50
52-week return198.83%
Shares outstanding1.25B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity66.97%
Operating margin35.29%
Net margin31.27%
Debt / equity0.30×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.06%
EPS growth (3Y)20.16%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)8.59%
Revenue / share (TTM)18.50
Book value / share9.97

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.11%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-05-11
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityf990ebb22b60b4c1a1be0c99

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy