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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank60.8/ 100
Official close$376.00-7.55 (-1.97%)
Bid$375.94
Ask$376.34
Previous close$383.55
ATR (14)2.78%
RSI (14)35.4
Volume2.41M
Model reference$370.00
Upside scenario$395.00
Risk reference$355.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market suggests a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. While the stock has pulled back from its summer highs, implied volatility remains elevated, indicating anticipation of potential upside movement. The term structure is flat to slightly downward sloping, suggesting investors are not overly concerned about long-term risk.

Wheel contextUNH's recent pullback has created potential buying opportunities for investors with a bullish outlook. The elevated IV suggests that significant price movement is expected, potentially leading to gains for those who buy calls.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Neutral/watch; consider dip-buy if support holds. High uncertainty from medical-cost trends.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish toward $420-450 if late-Oct Q3 results confirm cost control and guidance. Valuation attractive vs history and cash generation. Significant uncertainty remains around utilization (GLP-1, commercial), regulatory/policy shifts, and potential further downside (to ~$320) if $370 support fails. Volatility likely; not a low-risk setup.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously constructive. Investors see undervalued turnaround with robust FCF/dividend; some waiting for $350-360 to add more. Pullback after summer rally viewed as opportunity, with range expected toward 440. Analyst reiteration (e.g., Overweight $495) noted. Recent posts mixed with cost worries and spam; overall contrarian interest.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$392.30
50D SMA$407.49
200D SMA$353.60
9D EMA$387.36
21D EMA$393.36
20D MVWAP$391.74
YTD VWAP$340.47
Daily reference VWAP$378.41
Price vs 20D SMA-4.17%
Price vs 50D SMA-7.74%
Price vs 200D SMA6.32%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)28.93
RSI (14)35.42
RSI (21)39.20
Stochastic K12.26
Stochastic D22.99
MACD line-5.93
MACD histogram-4.62
ADX (14)25.29
MACD acceleration-0.79
RSI velocity-1.80
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.01
ATR (14) %2.78%
Bollinger upper$406.86
Bollinger middle$392.30
Bollinger lower$377.75
Bollinger position-0.06%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility21.65%
Observed range position0.00%
5D true high$406.53
5D true low$375.50
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.41M
20D average volume2.29M
Volume vs 20D average1.05x
20D SMA velocity-0.96
50D SMA velocity-0.88
Institutional flow-1.12
ATR velocity-0.01
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$376.00
DateSep 15, 2026
Volume2.41M
Vwap D$378.41
Mvwap 20$391.74
Change-7.55
Change Percentage 1.97%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$392.30
Sma 50$407.49
Sma 200$353.60
Ema 9$387.36
Ema 21$393.36
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 728.93
Rsi 1435.42
Rsi 2139.20
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K12.26
Stoch D22.99
Macd Line-5.93
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.62
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr10.44
Atr Pct2.78%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv33.57
Iv Rank30.05
Iv Percentile51.79%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper406.9
Bb Middle392.3
Bb Lower377.8
Bb Pctb-0.06
True High$383.80
True Low$375.50
True High 5d$406.53
True Low 5d$375.50
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.96
Sma50$-0.88
Mvwap20$-1.12
Macd-0.79
Rsi-1.80
Volume62,177
Atr-0.01
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 13, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskHigh
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
96
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
80
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
42
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
71

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The UNH option market suggests a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. While the stock has pulled back from its summer highs, implied volatility remains elevated, indicating anticipation of potential upside movement. The term structure is flat to slightly downward sloping, suggesting investors are not overly concerned about long-term risk.

Front ATM IV30.96%
Current IV33.71%
IV Rank30.52
IV Percentile52.99%
25Δ skew-0.12
Term slope-1.89
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread6.70%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
31.0%28.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-183.0030.96%—
2026-09-2510.0028.24%—
2026-10-0217.0029.07%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$370.00
Long strike$367.50
Net credit / share$0.49
Credit / width19.60%
$49$-201$366.13$371.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$385.00
Long strike$387.50
Net credit / share$0.48
Credit / width19.00%
$48$-202$383.63$388.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility (IV) for UNH is currently 33.71%, ranking in the 52.99th percentile compared to historical levels.
  • The term structure of IV shows a slight downward slope, indicating that near-term options are slightly more expensive than longer-dated options.
  • Bullish option strategies like call spreads and bull put spreads are referenced in the market data.
Risk context
  • Medical cost concerns and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on utilization could negatively affect UNH's earnings and stock price.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score79.60

UNH's recent pullback has created potential buying opportunities for investors with a bullish outlook. The elevated IV suggests that significant price movement is expected, potentially leading to gains for those who buy calls.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$906.40M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.10%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread6.70%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 15, 2026 9:39 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $380.00 | $4.38 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$344.27B
P/E (TTM)24.4×
Beta0.54
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return7.21%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityf6b173ec57f5bc1e7da4b108

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy