Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank62.7/ 100
Official close$377.00+1.07 (+0.28%)
Bid$377.00
Ask$377.05
Previous close$375.93
ATR (14)2.71%
RSI (14)35.1
Volume1.74M
Model reference$375.00
Upside scenario$395.00
Risk reference$365.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Weakness

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market suggests bullish sentiment despite recent price weakness. Elevated implied volatility and a positive skew indicate anticipation of potential upside movement, particularly around the upcoming Q3 earnings release.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in a potential rebound following recent weakness. The upcoming Q3 earnings release could be a catalyst for further upside.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious hold or small accumulation on dips toward support. High uncertainty from cost trends and mid-Oct earnings; not a strong 1-3 week momentum setup.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish if Q3 confirms margin recovery, potentially toward $420-450 (analyst range). Solid Optum/UnitedHealthcare fundamentals, buybacks, and dividend support. High uncertainty around medical utilization, reimbursement, policy, and GLP-1/IDR costs. Could stall or retrace if trends worsen.


Market sentiment context

Limited high-quality posts. Some traders see buy-the-dip near $370 support (potential bear trap, undervalued vs targets, growing dividend). CNBC trader recommended buy. One short stopped out. Mixed-to-cautiously bullish among mentions; overall low volume of discussion.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$391.37
50D SMA$406.43
200D SMA$353.82
9D EMA$384.94
21D EMA$391.71
20D MVWAP$391.00
YTD VWAP$340.55
Daily reference VWAP$376.37
Price vs 20D SMA-4.12%
Price vs 50D SMA-7.67%
Price vs 200D SMA6.06%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)28.35
RSI (14)35.07
RSI (21)38.95
Stochastic K10.44
Stochastic D15.48
MACD line-6.60
MACD histogram-5.01
ADX (14)26.94
MACD acceleration-0.66
RSI velocity-0.13
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.23
ATR (14) %2.71%
Bollinger upper$407.76
Bollinger middle$391.37
Bollinger lower$374.98
Bollinger position0.01%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility21.64%
Observed range position0.00%
5D true high$399.27
5D true low$373.63
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.74M
20D average volume2.28M
Volume vs 20D average0.76x
20D SMA velocity-0.94
50D SMA velocity-0.91
Institutional flow-0.82
ATR velocity-0.23
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$377.00
DateSep 16, 2026
Volume1.74M
Vwap D$376.37
Mvwap 20$391.00
Change1.07
Change Percentage0.28%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$391.37
Sma 50$406.43
Sma 200$353.82
Ema 9$384.94
Ema 21$391.71
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 728.35
Rsi 1435.07
Rsi 2138.95
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K10.44
Stoch D15.48
Macd Line-6.60
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-5.01
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr10.17
Atr Pct2.71%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv37.38
Iv Rank42.98
Iv Percentile73.71%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper407.8
Bb Middle391.4
Bb Lower375.0
Bb Pctb0.01
True High$380.22
True Low$373.63
True High 5d$399.27
True Low 5d$373.63
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.94
Sma50$-0.91
Mvwap20$-0.82
Macd-0.66
Rsi-0.13
Volume-959,535
Atr-0.23
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 13, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
94
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
82
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
42
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
82

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Weakness

The UNH option market suggests bullish sentiment despite recent price weakness. Elevated implied volatility and a positive skew indicate anticipation of potential upside movement, particularly around the upcoming Q3 earnings release.

Front ATM IV31.24%
Current IV37.44%
IV Rank43.20
IV Percentile74.10%
25Δ skew9.83
Term slope-1.37
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread13.80%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
31.2%28.3%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-182.0031.24%
2026-09-259.0028.31%
2026-10-0216.0029.87%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$357.50
Long strike$355.00
Net credit / share$0.07
Credit / width2.80%
$7$-243$353.63$358.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$382.50
Long strike$385.00
Net credit / share$0.53
Credit / width21.20%
$53$-197$381.13$386.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (IV) at 37.44% suggests market participants expect significant price swings in UNH.
  • A put-demand elevated skew with higher IV on put options compared to calls indicates a potential for downside protection but also a belief in upside potential.
  • Analysts are mostly bullish with consensus targets ranging from $456 to $482, representing 20% to 27% upside from the current price.
Risk context
  • Cost concerns related to IDR and GLP-1 drugs could weigh on the stock price.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score81.50

The market appears to be pricing in a potential rebound following recent weakness. The upcoming Q3 earnings release could be a catalyst for further upside.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$652.96M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.18%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread13.80%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 16, 2026 9:43 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $375.00 | $3.93 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$337.43B
P/E (TTM)24.4×
Beta0.54
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return8.81%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity1cd1efa81052a16c7702aad0

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy