Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank57.9/ 100
Official close$396.85-4.09 (-1.02%)
Bid$395.88
Ask$397.09
Previous close$400.94
ATR (14)2.18%
RSI (14)46.8
Volume1.50M
Model reference$392.00
Upside scenario$412.00
Risk reference$380.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Implies Rangebound Trading

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market suggests a neutral outlook with potential for rangebound trading. While implied volatility is elevated, the term structure is relatively flat and skew is balanced. Recent news includes Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance, but mixed analyst views and uncertainty around cost trends contribute to cautious sentiment.

Wheel contextThe market is pricing in potential for both upside and downside movement, with no clear directional bias.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Neutral

Short-term scenario

Cautious accumulation on dip for potential 1-3 week bounce; high uncertainty from cost trends and macro/policy noise. Not a high-conviction setup.

Three-month outlook

Moderately constructive if cost discipline and Optum execution hold, with consensus 12-month targets around $475-481 (~20% upside) and raised 2026 EPS. Recovery in Medicare/Optum margins and buybacks supportive. Significant uncertainty remains: commercial margin recovery delayed past 2027, still-elevated medical trends, membership pressure, potential policy/funding shifts, and next earnings (Oct) as key catalyst. Volatility likely; not a low-risk hold.


Market sentiment context

Cautiously mixed-to-positive. Posts note recovery from 2025 issues, raised guidance, analyst PT around $512, and politician/insider-related buys. Technical comments flag recent pullback from ~$406 and watch $388 support. Some value/contrarian bullishness on moat and cash flow; limited high-engagement directional conviction amid spam group posts.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$396.91
50D SMA$411.74
200D SMA$351.49
9D EMA$396.94
21D EMA$399.40
20D MVWAP$396.91
YTD VWAP$339.26
Daily reference VWAP$398.19
Price vs 20D SMA0.06%
Price vs 50D SMA-3.55%
Price vs 200D SMA12.99%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)49.60
RSI (14)46.79
RSI (21)47.33
Stochastic K68.76
Stochastic D61.53
MACD line-3.50
MACD histogram-4.65
ADX (14)19.99
MACD acceleration0.55
RSI velocity0.24
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.11
ATR (14) %2.18%
Bollinger upper$408.72
Bollinger middle$396.91
Bollinger lower$385.11
Bollinger position0.51%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility19.24%
Observed range position23.86%
5D true high$405.16
5D true low$387.71
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.50M
20D average volume1.99M
Volume vs 20D average0.75x
20D SMA velocity-0.43
50D SMA velocity-0.22
Institutional flow-0.58
ATR velocity-0.11
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$396.85
DateSep 4, 2026
Volume1.50M
Vwap D$398.19
Mvwap 20$396.91
Change-4.09
Change Percentage 1.02%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$396.91
Sma 50$411.74
Sma 200$351.49
Ema 9$396.94
Ema 21$399.40
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 749.60
Rsi 1446.79
Rsi 2147.33
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K68.76
Stoch D61.53
Macd Line-3.50
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.65
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr8.65
Atr Pct2.18%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv26.72
Iv Rank6.75
Iv Percentile8.33%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper408.7
Bb Middle396.9
Bb Lower385.1
Bb Pctb0.51
True High$402.23
True Low$395.20
True High 5d$405.16
True Low 5d$387.71
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.43
Sma50$-0.22
Mvwap20$-0.58
Macd0.55
Rsi0.24
Volume-135,840
Atr-0.11
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 27, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
88
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
71
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
55
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
41

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Implies Rangebound Trading

The UNH option market suggests a neutral outlook with potential for rangebound trading. While implied volatility is elevated, the term structure is relatively flat and skew is balanced. Recent news includes Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance, but mixed analyst views and uncertainty around cost trends contribute to cautious sentiment.

Front ATM IV25.27%
Current IV26.53%
IV Rank6.10
IV Percentile7.54%
25Δ skew2.65
Term slope-0.27
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.70%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
25.3%24.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-117.0025.27%
2026-09-1814.0024.74%
2026-09-2521.0025.00%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$385.00
Long strike$380.00
Net credit / share$0.69
Credit / width13.80%
$69$-431$377.25$387.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$407.50
Long strike$410.00
Net credit / share$0.51
Credit / width20.40%
$51$-199$406.13$411.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility at 26.53% suggests potential for price fluctuations.
  • The term structure is flat with a slight negative slope, indicating similar implied volatility across various expirations.
  • Balanced delta skew implies balanced call and put option pricing.
  • Recent earnings beat and raised guidance are positive, but mixed analyst views and uncertainty around cost trends contribute to caution.
Risk context
  • Cost trend pressures and macro/policy noise could impact UNH's performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score71.40

The market is pricing in potential for both upside and downside movement, with no clear directional bias.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$594.75M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.31%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.70%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 4, 2026 11:22 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $397.50 | $6.10 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$356.22B
P/E (TTM)25.4×
Beta0.54
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return29.18%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity193da9aa9b1eb52dfab889e2

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy