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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank59.0/ 100
Official close$399.59+2.45 (+0.62%)
Bid$399.10
Ask$401.03
Previous close$397.14
ATR (14)2.24%
RSI (14)50.0
Volume2.43M
Model reference$400.00
Upside scenario$420.00
Risk reference$390.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market suggests a bullish outlook, with implied volatility indicating potential for price movement. The term structure is backwardated, suggesting traders expect higher prices in the near future. Recent earnings beat expectations and positive news regarding prior authorization removals contribute to the optimistic sentiment.

Wheel contextThe market is pricing in potential upside, with call options showing higher implied volatility than put options. This suggests a belief that UNH's price will rise.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious long/hold on confirmation of bounce; high uncertainty from cost trends, policy, and Oct 27 earnings.

Three-month outlook

Moderately constructive with potential for $430-450 if medical utilization and cost controls continue to improve, supported by analyst targets around $475 and AI/operational initiatives. However, substantial uncertainty remains around sustained medical cost inflation (GLP-1s, disputes), regulatory/Medicare reimbursement risks, membership mix, and Q3 results. Volatility likely with possible 10-15% swings in either direction.

Market sentiment context

Short-term trader sentiment recently constructive with notes of bullish engulfing candle, whale/dark pool buying, and call options flow targeting ~420. Longer-term investor posts highlight undervaluation (e.g., DCF estimates around $575) and recovery potential, though some older posts from 2025 reflected extreme pessimism during the prior drawdown. Overall mixed but with recent positive flow.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$396.52
50D SMA$411.20
200D SMA$351.93
9D EMA$397.72
21D EMA$399.53
20D MVWAP$396.50
YTD VWAP$339.45
Daily reference VWAP$398.39
Price vs 20D SMA1.09%
Price vs 50D SMA-2.52%
Price vs 200D SMA13.90%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)56.29
RSI (14)49.96
RSI (21)49.31
Stochastic K70.52
Stochastic D68.65
MACD line-2.95
MACD histogram-4.31
ADX (14)19.26
MACD acceleration0.51
RSI velocity0.40
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.10
ATR (14) %2.24%
Bollinger upper$407.12
Bollinger middle$396.52
Bollinger lower$385.91
Bollinger position0.70%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility19.52%
Observed range position31.05%
5D true high$405.16
5D true low$389.41
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.43M
20D average volume2.03M
Volume vs 20D average1.19x
20D SMA velocity-0.35
50D SMA velocity-0.34
Institutional flow-0.50
ATR velocity0.10
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$399.59
DateSep 8, 2026
Volume2.43M
Vwap D$398.39
Mvwap 20$396.50
Change2.45
Change Percentage0.62%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$396.52
Sma 50$411.20
Sma 200$351.93
Ema 9$397.72
Ema 21$399.53
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 756.29
Rsi 1449.96
Rsi 2149.31
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K70.52
Stoch D68.65
Macd Line-2.95
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.31
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr8.99
Atr Pct2.24%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv30.86
Iv Rank20.81
Iv Percentile38.65%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper407.1
Bb Middle396.5
Bb Lower385.9
Bb Pctb0.70
True High$403.89
True Low$390.44
True High 5d$405.16
True Low 5d$389.41
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.35
Sma50$-0.34
Mvwap20$-0.50
Macd0.51
Rsi0.40
Volume233,829
Atr0.10
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 27, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
90
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
70
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
63
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
59

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential

The UNH option market suggests a bullish outlook, with implied volatility indicating potential for price movement. The term structure is backwardated, suggesting traders expect higher prices in the near future. Recent earnings beat expectations and positive news regarding prior authorization removals contribute to the optimistic sentiment.

Front ATM IV47.14%
Current IV30.99%
IV Rank21.28
IV Percentile40.64%
25Δ skew2.92
Term slope-15.96
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.59%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
47.1%31.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-113.0047.14%—
2026-09-1810.0035.05%—
2026-09-2517.0031.18%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$390.00
Long strike$387.50
Net credit / share$0.50
Credit / width19.80%
$50$-200$386.13$391.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$415.00
Long strike$417.50
Net credit / share$0.46
Credit / width18.20%
$46$-204$413.63$418.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility of 30.99% suggests expectation of significant price movement.
  • The term structure is backwardated with a slope of -15.96 points, indicating higher implied volatility for near-term expirations compared to longer-term ones.
  • Recent earnings beat expectations and full-year guidance was raised.
  • UnitedHealthcare announced the removal of prior authorization requirements for ~30% of services effective October 1st.
Risk context
  • Lingering concerns over medical cost trends and GLP-1 drug coverage could impact future performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score70.90

The market is pricing in potential upside, with call options showing higher implied volatility than put options. This suggests a belief that UNH's price will rise.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$972.70M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.50%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.59%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 8, 2026 9:38 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $392.50 | $6.95 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$356.47B
P/E (TTM)25.2×
Beta0.53
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return25.92%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityb92e53a7b5ce91e14d6a6f88

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy