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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank54.9/ 100
Official close$394.00-6.84 (-1.71%)
Bid$392.50
Ask$393.54
Previous close$400.84
ATR (14)2.64%
RSI (14)44.0
Volume4.91M
Model reference$385.00
Upside scenario$410.00
Risk reference$375.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Beat and News of Optum Stake Sale

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market displays mixed sentiment following a recent earnings beat and news of a stake sale in its Optum Health unit. While the company exceeded Q2 EPS estimates and raised FY26 guidance, shares fell on reports of the TPG stake sale, intended to improve the underperforming Optum unit's margins. The term structure is backwardated with near-term IV higher than further out dates. The skew is balanced.

Wheel contextThe recent news flow creates uncertainty for UNH options traders. Some see the stake sale as a positive step for Optum's turnaround, while others are concerned about the potential impact on the company's growth prospects.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy/accumulate on further weakness toward support for a potential 1-3 week bounce, given oversold RSI and positive conference/news backdrop; high uncertainty from today's news reaction, medical cost volatility, and short-term MA resistance.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish if turnaround execution continues (cost controls, Optum Health margin recovery, buybacks, raised guidance), with potential retest of $420-450. Supported by improving MA/Medicaid trends and AI efficiencies. Significant uncertainty remains from elevated medical costs, possible policy/regulatory shifts (e.g., Medicare rates, prior auth changes), Optum performance, and membership/commercial pressures; a sustained MCR improvement and Q3 results will be key. Not investment advice; high volatility possible.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautiously opportunistic. Recent posts note the drop as potential overreaction to the TPG news amid conference positives (MA improvement, cost savings, buybacks); some traders buying calls or scaling in near Fib support (~$383). Technical commentary highlights rejection near $425 and overhead FVG, with pullback viewed as buying opportunity by longer-term bulls citing undervaluation and turnaround. Sector-wide healthcare pressure mentioned; overall more constructive on fundamentals than the day's price action.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$396.06
50D SMA$410.66
200D SMA$352.35
9D EMA$396.79
21D EMA$398.94
20D MVWAP$395.68
YTD VWAP$339.80
Daily reference VWAP$392.56
Price vs 20D SMA-0.76%
Price vs 50D SMA-4.29%
Price vs 200D SMA11.55%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)42.46
RSI (14)44.02
RSI (21)45.53
Stochastic K62.63
Stochastic D67.30
MACD line-3.10
MACD histogram-4.07
ADX (14)19.97
MACD acceleration0.23
RSI velocity-1.93
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.54
ATR (14) %2.64%
Bollinger upper$406.42
Bollinger middle$396.06
Bollinger lower$385.70
Bollinger position0.36%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility19.91%
Observed range position15.94%
5D true high$406.53
5D true low$378.08
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume4.91M
20D average volume2.18M
Volume vs 20D average2.25x
20D SMA velocity-0.45
50D SMA velocity-0.48
Institutional flow-0.58
ATR velocity0.54
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$394.00
DateSep 9, 2026
Volume4.91M
Vwap D$392.56
Mvwap 20$395.68
Change-6.84
Change Percentage 1.71%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$396.06
Sma 50$410.66
Sma 200$352.35
Ema 9$396.79
Ema 21$398.94
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 742.46
Rsi 1444.02
Rsi 2145.53
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K62.63
Stoch D67.30
Macd Line-3.10
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-4.07
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr10.38
Atr Pct2.64%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv30.12
Iv Rank18.30
Iv Percentile34.66%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper406.4
Bb Middle396.1
Bb Lower385.7
Bb Pctb0.36
True High$406.53
True Low$378.08
True High 5d$406.53
True Low 5d$378.08
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.45
Sma50$-0.48
Mvwap20$-0.58
Macd0.23
Rsi-1.93
Volume1.02M
Atr0.54
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 27, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
94
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
64
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
52
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
54

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Beat and News of Optum Stake Sale

The UNH option market displays mixed sentiment following a recent earnings beat and news of a stake sale in its Optum Health unit. While the company exceeded Q2 EPS estimates and raised FY26 guidance, shares fell on reports of the TPG stake sale, intended to improve the underperforming Optum unit's margins. The term structure is backwardated with near-term IV higher than further out dates. The skew is balanced.

Front ATM IV35.83%
Current IV29.84%
IV Rank17.35
IV Percentile32.67%
25Δ skew3.44
Term slope-7.58
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.32%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
35.8%28.3%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-112.0035.83%—
2026-09-189.0029.40%—
2026-09-2516.0028.25%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$375.00
Long strike$372.50
Net credit / share$0.13
Credit / width5.20%
$13$-237$371.13$376.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$400.00
Long strike$402.50
Net credit / share$0.47
Credit / width18.80%
$47$-203$398.63$403.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • UNH reported Q2 earnings that beat estimates and raised FY26 guidance, but shares fell ~2% on news of a stake sale in Optum Health to TPG.
  • The option market shows mixed sentiment with both bullish and bearish commentary present.
  • Short-term technical indicators are neutral to bearish, while longer-term trends remain positive.
Risk context
  • Medical cost pressures and challenges in the commercial/Medicaid segments remain risks for UNH.
  • The success of the Optum Health turnaround plan is crucial for the company's long-term performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score63.60

The recent news flow creates uncertainty for UNH options traders. Some see the stake sale as a positive step for Optum's turnaround, while others are concerned about the potential impact on the company's growth prospects.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.93B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.26%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread11.32%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 9, 2026 9:32 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $407.50 | $4.63 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$359.79B
P/E (TTM)25.2×
Beta0.53
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return25.92%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity15f0d67b328657156c9b609a

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy