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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

UnitedHealth Group Inc / UNH

StockHealthcareHealth Care
JW Rank63.0/ 100
Official close$377.00+1.79 (+0.48%)
Bid$376.10
Ask$376.76
Previous close$375.21
ATR (14)2.55%
RSI (14)36.9
Volume2.33M
Model reference$370.00
Upside scenario$395.00
Risk reference$355.00
Decision summary

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The UNH option market suggests a cautiously bullish outlook despite a recent dip in price. While technical indicators show mixed signals, the implied volatility structure and earnings-related activity point towards potential upside.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in the possibility of a post-earnings rally, particularly if Q3 results meet or exceed expectations.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious accumulation on weakness into Oct 13 earnings; high uncertainty from cost trends and report.

Three-month outlook

Constructive if Q3 confirms medical cost control and guidance holds, with potential rebound toward $420-450. Analysts see ~20%+ upside. Key risks/uncertainty: utilization trends, Medicare Advantage ratings/membership, regulatory scrutiny (antitrust, denials), and post-earnings reaction. Mixed technicals add near-term caution.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously bullish on dip. Posts view ~$374 as attractive after rally from lows, citing undervaluation, cash flow, and turnaround; some targeting $420 and buying Oct earnings calls. Persistent concerns on medical costs, margins, regulation, and Medicare. Mixed overall with value-seeking tone.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$390.30
50D SMA$404.33
200D SMA$354.32
9D EMA$381.78
21D EMA$389.00
20D MVWAP$389.73
YTD VWAP$340.77
Daily reference VWAP$375.94
Price vs 20D SMA-3.43%
Price vs 50D SMA-6.78%
Price vs 200D SMA6.37%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)32.90
RSI (14)36.87
RSI (21)40.01
Stochastic K7.63
Stochastic D7.26
MACD line-7.20
MACD histogram-5.78
ADX (14)29.90
MACD acceleration-0.43
RSI velocity0.48
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.27
ATR (14) %2.55%
Bollinger upper$409.07
Bollinger middle$390.30
Bollinger lower$371.53
Bollinger position0.14%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility21.13%
Observed range position2.76%
5D true high$386.46
5D true low$372.42
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.33M
20D average volume2.25M
Volume vs 20D average1.04x
20D SMA velocity-0.67
50D SMA velocity-1.05
Institutional flow-0.67
ATR velocity-0.27
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$377.00
DateSep 18, 2026
Volume2.33M
Vwap D$375.94
Mvwap 20$389.73
Change1.79
Change Percentage0.48%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$390.30
Sma 50$404.33
Sma 200$354.32
Ema 9$381.78
Ema 21$389.00
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 732.90
Rsi 1436.87
Rsi 2140.01
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K7.63
Stoch D7.26
Macd Line-7.20
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-5.78
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr9.62
Atr Pct2.55%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv38.84
Iv Rank47.96
Iv Percentile79.28%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper409.1
Bb Middle390.3
Bb Lower371.5
Bb Pctb0.14
True High$378.49
True Low$372.42
True High 5d$386.46
True Low 5d$372.42
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.67
Sma50$-1.05
Mvwap20$-0.67
Macd-0.43
Rsi0.48
Volume-25,973
Atr-0.27
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 13, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
92
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
81
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
42
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
32
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
84

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

UNH Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The UNH option market suggests a cautiously bullish outlook despite a recent dip in price. While technical indicators show mixed signals, the implied volatility structure and earnings-related activity point towards potential upside.

Front ATM IV25.88%
Current IV38.66%
IV Rank47.32
IV Percentile78.09%
25Δ skew1.17
Term slope4.74
Term structureContango
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.06%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
30.6%25.9%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-257.0025.88%—
2026-10-0214.0028.74%—
2026-10-0921.0030.62%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$367.50
Long strike$365.00
Net credit / share$0.55
Credit / width22.00%
$55$-195$363.63$368.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$385.00
Long strike$387.50
Net credit / share$0.56
Credit / width22.40%
$56$-194$383.63$388.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting expectations for increased price movement around the upcoming Q3 earnings release on October 13th.
  • The term structure of implied volatility is in contango, with longer-dated options more expensive than near-term options, indicating a belief that UNH's price will rise over time.
  • Call option activity is relatively strong, particularly around the October expiration date, suggesting bullish sentiment and anticipation of potential upside.
  • Analysts remain optimistic on UNH's cost control measures and future growth prospects, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating and average price targets above current levels.
Risk context
  • Medical cost trends and regulatory scrutiny remain key risks for UNH's future performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score81.60

The market appears to be pricing in the possibility of a post-earnings rally, particularly if Q3 results meet or exceed expectations.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$879.56M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.18%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.06%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score32.00
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

UNH Covered Call signal

Sep 18, 2026 9:35 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $375.00 | $6.05 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

UnitedHealth Group Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$336.79B
P/E (TTM)23.8×
Beta0.54
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
52-week return10.44%
Shares outstanding908.14M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity14.40%
Operating margin4.74%
Net margin3.14%
Debt / equity0.83×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)11.35%
EPS growth (3Y)-14.51%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)-4.82%
Revenue / share (TTM)496.8
Book value / share115.1

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.37%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1984-10-17
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity9dcee91516e5eda1f8b3cbc8

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy