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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank61.8/ 100
Official close$1,163.00+10.07 (+0.87%)
Bid$1,161.11
Ask$1,164.80
Previous close$1,152.93
ATR (14)2.58%
RSI (14)50.9
Volume899,628
Model reference$1,145.00
Upside scenario$1,220.00
Risk reference$1,110.00
Decision summary

LLY Option Market Implies Continued Growth Potential

BalancedHigh confidence

The market for LLY options suggests optimism about future growth. The stock's recent performance, positive analyst sentiment, and upcoming pipeline catalysts contribute to this bullish outlook. However, the elevated valuation and potential competition from Novo Nordisk warrant caution.

Wheel contextThe current option pricing environment favors bullish strategies, particularly those targeting upside potential in the next few weeks.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious accumulate on any dip (high uncertainty from valuation, Novo competition, and pre-earnings positioning; 1-3 week horizon before Oct 29 earnings)

Three-month outlook

Constructive but with elevated uncertainty: continued GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound/Foundayo) volume growth, retatrutide Phase 3 data, and pipeline diversification could support a move toward $1,250-$1,350 if execution holds and NVO remains pressured; however, premium valuation (PE 39), potential market-share erosion, regulatory/pricing risks, and Q3 earnings (late Oct) introduce significant downside if growth disappoints or broader market weakens. Not investment advice; high volatility expected.

Market sentiment context

Mixed-to-cautiously bullish recently: positive posts on Berenberg/Guggenheim upgrades, CEO comments on Foundayo market share growth, and LLY outperformance vs NVO; older/skeptical posts highlight high valuation, heavy institutional ownership, and competition risks; overall retail/analyst chatter leans constructive on GLP-1 dominance but notes overvaluation concerns

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,158.79
50D SMA$1,176.89
200D SMA$1,066.94
9D EMA$1,148.54
21D EMA$1,158.20
20D MVWAP$1,164.34
YTD VWAP$1,064.12
Daily reference VWAP$1,156.73
Price vs 20D SMA0.53%
Price vs 50D SMA-1.02%
Price vs 200D SMA9.18%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)62.60
RSI (14)50.92
RSI (21)50.20
Stochastic K57.92
Stochastic D45.94
MACD line-11.30
MACD histogram-13.06
ADX (14)11.20
MACD acceleration1.96
RSI velocity2.80
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.36
ATR (14) %2.58%
Bollinger upper$1,226.84
Bollinger middle$1,158.79
Bollinger lower$1,090.74
Bollinger position0.54%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility19.57%
Observed range position29.89%
5D true high$1,170.89
5D true low$1,131.59
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume899,628
20D average volume1.03M
Volume vs 20D average0.87x
20D SMA velocity-5.16
50D SMA velocity-1.01
Institutional flow-7.50
ATR velocity-0.36
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,163.00
DateSep 21, 2026
Volume899,628
Vwap D$1,156.73
Mvwap 20$1,164.34
Change10.07
Change Percentage0.87%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,158.79
Sma 50$1,176.89
Sma 200$1,066.94
Ema 9$1,148.54
Ema 21$1,158.20
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 762.60
Rsi 1450.92
Rsi 2150.20
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K57.92
Stoch D45.94
Macd Line-11.30
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-13.06
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr30.00
Atr Pct2.58%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv31.13
Iv Rank18.87
Iv Percentile17.93%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,226.8
Bb Middle1,158.8
Bb Lower1,090.7
Bb Pctb0.54
True High$1,170.89
True Low$1,134.41
True High 5d$1,170.89
True Low 5d$1,131.59
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-5.16
Sma50$-1.01
Mvwap20$-7.50
Macd1.96
Rsi2.80
Volume90,967
Atr-0.36
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
88
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
61
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
66
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
48

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Option Market Implies Continued Growth Potential

The market for LLY options suggests optimism about future growth. The stock's recent performance, positive analyst sentiment, and upcoming pipeline catalysts contribute to this bullish outlook. However, the elevated valuation and potential competition from Novo Nordisk warrant caution.

Front ATM IV35.35%
Current IV31.04%
IV Rank18.44
IV Percentile17.53%
25Δ skew0.40
Term slope-3.27
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread17.90%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
35.4%32.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-254.0035.35%—
2026-10-0211.0032.11%—
2026-10-0918.0032.08%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,140.00
Long strike$1,135.00
Net credit / share$1.05
Credit / width21.00%
$105$-395$1,132.25$1,142.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,200.00
Long strike$1,205.00
Net credit / share$0.90
Credit / width18.00%
$90$-410$1,197.25$1,207.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • LLY's implied volatility is above average, indicating expectations for significant price movement in the coming months.
  • The term structure of LLY options shows a backwardation pattern, with near-term options more expensive than longer-term options. This suggests that market participants anticipate strong performance in the near future.
  • Positive analyst commentary and upgrades from firms like Berenberg contribute to the bullish sentiment surrounding LLY.
Risk context
  • LLY's high valuation could make it susceptible to profit-taking if growth expectations are not met.
  • Competition from Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 market poses a risk to LLY's future market share.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score60.50

The current option pricing environment favors bullish strategies, particularly those targeting upside potential in the next few weeks.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.05B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.75%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread17.90%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 21, 2026 12:29 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-10-02 | short $1140.00 | $38.53 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.09T
P/E (TTM)40.6×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return51.12%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityca6050040f0d018417c1ad61

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy