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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank63.1/ 100
Official close$1,150.76+12.94 (+1.14%)
Bid$1,151.19
Ask$1,157.23
Previous close$1,137.82
ATR (14)2.64%
RSI (14)47.1
Volume709,798
Model reference$1,135.00
Upside scenario$1,220.00
Risk reference$1,095.00
Decision summary

LLY Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The LLY option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. Elevated implied volatility suggests anticipation of significant price movement, potentially driven by upcoming catalysts like EASD 2026 data and the company's strong GLP-1 franchise growth.

Wheel contextThe option market suggests a cautious approach as volatility remains elevated. Traders may seek to capitalize on potential upside while managing downside risk through strategies like covered calls or protective puts.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy on dip/confirmation of bounce from support; mixed technicals (below short MAs, fading MACD) vs bullish upgrade/fundamentals. High uncertainty from volatility, upcoming EASD data, and market conditions. Not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish with ~10-15% upside potential toward $1,250-1,325 (analyst consensus range), driven by GLP-1 franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound/Foundayo) volume growth, pipeline readouts (retatrutide, diabetes indications), and acquisitions. Risks include high valuation, competition/pricing pressure, execution on deals, Q3 earnings (late Oct), and macro/healthcare policy. Uncertainty high; could range $1,050-1,400 depending on data and sentiment. Long-term growth story intact but near-term choppy.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously bullish overall. Recent posts highlight Berenberg upgrade injecting momentum and potential bounce from $1,100-1,121 support (bull flag noted if holds). Technical traders see oversold bounce risk/reward. Some mixed/bearish lean on short-term tape and broader market. Older valuation concerns (high P/E) persist but current focus on pipeline, market share gains vs Novo, and catalysts. Retail/institutional chatter positive on fundamentals amid pullback.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,167.89
50D SMA$1,178.64
200D SMA$1,065.87
9D EMA$1,142.34
21D EMA$1,157.99
20D MVWAP$1,175.93
YTD VWAP$1,063.43
Daily reference VWAP$1,150.15
Price vs 20D SMA-1.32%
Price vs 50D SMA-2.22%
Price vs 200D SMA8.12%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)53.68
RSI (14)47.09
RSI (21)48.02
Stochastic K34.24
Stochastic D22.95
MACD line-15.35
MACD histogram-13.45
ADX (14)11.91
MACD acceleration0.92
RSI velocity1.54
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.61
ATR (14) %2.64%
Bollinger upper$1,256.06
Bollinger middle$1,167.89
Bollinger lower$1,079.71
Bollinger position0.41%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility21.22%
Observed range position22.32%
5D true high$1,161.00
5D true low$1,113.29
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume709,798
20D average volume1.05M
Volume vs 20D average0.68x
20D SMA velocity-4.38
50D SMA velocity-1.50
Institutional flow-4.99
ATR velocity-0.61
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,150.76
DateSep 17, 2026
Volume709,798
Vwap D$1,150.15
Mvwap 20$1,175.93
Change12.94
Change Percentage1.14%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,167.89
Sma 50$1,178.64
Sma 200$1,065.87
Ema 9$1,142.34
Ema 21$1,157.99
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 753.68
Rsi 1447.09
Rsi 2148.02
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K34.24
Stoch D22.95
Macd Line-15.35
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-13.45
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr30.44
Atr Pct2.64%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv30.93
Iv Rank17.86
Iv Percentile16.73%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,256.1
Bb Middle1,167.9
Bb Lower1,079.7
Bb Pctb0.41
True High$1,159.75
True Low$1,137.82
True High 5d$1,161.00
True Low 5d$1,113.29
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.38
Sma50$-1.50
Mvwap20$-4.99
Macd0.92
Rsi1.54
Volume-101,465
Atr-0.61
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
89
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
72
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
54
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
48

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The LLY option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. Elevated implied volatility suggests anticipation of significant price movement, potentially driven by upcoming catalysts like EASD 2026 data and the company's strong GLP-1 franchise growth.

Front ATM IV30.34%
Current IV31.35%
IV Rank19.96
IV Percentile19.92%
25Δ skew8.05
Term slope1.32
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread25.16%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
31.7%30.3%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-181.0030.34%—
2026-09-258.0030.80%—
2026-10-0215.0031.66%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,115.00
Long strike$1,110.00
Net credit / share$0.31
Credit / width6.20%
$31$-469$1,107.25$1,117.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,160.00
Long strike$1,165.00
Net credit / share$0.96
Credit / width19.10%
$96$-404$1,157.25$1,167.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (31.35%) indicates market expectation for substantial price swings.
  • Put demand is elevated, suggesting some concern about downside risk, but call options remain relatively active.
  • Berenberg upgrade to Buy with a raised price target of $1,400 fuels optimism and potential upside.
  • Strong Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise further support the bullish sentiment.
Risk context
  • High valuation (P/B ~30) could limit further gains if growth expectations are not met.
  • Competition from other GLP-1 players and pricing pressure pose a risk to future revenue growth.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score71.70

The option market suggests a cautious approach as volatility remains elevated. Traders may seek to capitalize on potential upside while managing downside risk through strategies like covered calls or protective puts.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$818.00M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.61%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread25.16%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 17, 2026 11:38 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $1130.00 | $19.95 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.07T
P/E (TTM)39.9×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return51.85%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityba9e9bffd4d961771bcaaf78

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy