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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank57.7/ 100
Official close$1,116.20-6.80 (-0.61%)
Bid$1,113.29
Ask$1,115.80
Previous close$1,123.00
ATR (14)2.85%
RSI (14)35.4
Volume730,901
Model reference$1,115.00
Upside scenario$1,180.00
Risk reference$1,090.00
Decision summary

LLY Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amidst Recent News and Technical Weakness

BalancedHigh confidence

The LLY option market displays a mixed sentiment, reflecting both positive fundamental developments and recent technical weakness. While the underlying price has dipped below key moving averages, bullish traders see support at $1,100-$1,115. However, concerns remain about intensifying competition and premium valuation. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting heightened uncertainty.

Wheel contextThe term structure of LLY options is in contango, with longer-dated options trading at a premium to shorter-dated options.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious dip-buy if $1,100–$1,115 support holds; high uncertainty given recent technical breakdown and mixed momentum signals.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but highly uncertain. Continued GLP-1 volume growth, new indications, oral-formulation rollout, and pipeline catalysts (retatrutide, additional acquisitions) could support a move toward the $1,300+ analyst-target zone. Offsetting risks include intensifying competition from Novo Nordisk, potential pricing/reimbursement pressure, clinical-trial outcomes, and broader equity-market volatility. A decisive break below $1,100 would raise the probability of a deeper 3-month correction.

Market sentiment context

Mixed-to-cautiously constructive. Several traders highlight a high-risk/reward bounce setup at the $1,100–$1,115 support with a bullish bias while price holds above $1,100. Others note continued weakness below the 50-day moving average and warn of further downside if that level fails. Positive commentary focuses on robust GLP-1 fundamentals, pipeline expansion via recent acquisitions, and analyst reiterates of Outperform ratings, offset by concerns over premium valuation and intensifying competition.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,183.12
50D SMA$1,184.65
200D SMA$1,064.85
9D EMA$1,142.14
21D EMA$1,165.55
20D MVWAP$1,192.73
YTD VWAP$1,062.50
Daily reference VWAP$1,120.14
Price vs 20D SMA-5.70%
Price vs 50D SMA-5.82%
Price vs 200D SMA4.78%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)19.66
RSI (14)35.43
RSI (21)41.59
Stochastic K4.66
Stochastic D5.77
MACD line-18.51
MACD histogram-8.54
ADX (14)14.96
MACD acceleration-2.35
RSI velocity-0.49
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-1.23
ATR (14) %2.85%
Bollinger upper$1,281.14
Bollinger middle$1,183.12
Bollinger lower$1,085.11
Bollinger position0.16%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility30.02%
Observed range position9.42%
5D true high$1,159.60
5D true low$1,113.29
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume730,901
20D average volume1.17M
Volume vs 20D average0.63x
20D SMA velocity-4.69
50D SMA velocity-1.72
Institutional flow-3.50
ATR velocity-1.23
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,116.20
DateSep 11, 2026
Volume730,901
Vwap D$1,120.14
Mvwap 20$1,192.73
Change-6.80
Change Percentage 0.61%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,183.12
Sma 50$1,184.65
Sma 200$1,064.85
Ema 9$1,142.14
Ema 21$1,165.55
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 719.66
Rsi 1435.43
Rsi 2141.59
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K4.66
Stoch D5.77
Macd Line-18.51
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-8.54
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr31.80
Atr Pct2.85%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv30.01
Iv Rank13.29
Iv Percentile11.95%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,281.1
Bb Middle1,183.1
Bb Lower1,085.1
Bb Pctb0.16
True High$1,131.44
True Low$1,113.29
True High 5d$1,159.60
True Low 5d$1,113.29
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.69
Sma50$-1.72
Mvwap20$-3.50
Macd-2.35
Rsi-0.49
Volume-105,063
Atr-1.23
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
64
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
41
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
36

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amidst Recent News and Technical Weakness

The LLY option market displays a mixed sentiment, reflecting both positive fundamental developments and recent technical weakness. While the underlying price has dipped below key moving averages, bullish traders see support at $1,100-$1,115. However, concerns remain about intensifying competition and premium valuation. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting heightened uncertainty.

Front ATM IV28.13%
Current IV29.99%
IV Rank13.21
IV Percentile11.95%
25Δ skew0.57
Term slope3.14
Term structureContango
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread21.27%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
31.3%28.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-187.0028.13%—
2026-09-2514.0030.51%—
2026-10-0221.0031.27%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,090.00
Long strike$1,065.00
Net credit / share$4.39
Credit / width17.56%
$439$-2,061$1,051.25$1,103.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • The implied volatility of LLY options is currently 29.99%, indicating a high level of market uncertainty.
  • Recent news includes Lilly's acquisition of AtaiBeckley and positive Phase 3b data for Taltz plus Zepbound, which could support future growth.
  • Technical indicators show bearish pressure as the price trades below both the 50-day and 20-day moving averages.
Risk context
  • Intensifying competition from Novo Nordisk poses a risk to LLY's market share.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score64.10

The term structure of LLY options is in contango, with longer-dated options trading at a premium to shorter-dated options.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$815.47M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.23%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread21.27%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 11, 2026 12:29 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $1150.00 | $8.88 credit | Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.06T
P/E (TTM)39.8×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return49.77%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity126a60cfa0cbf817510a2dbf

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy