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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank56.1/ 100
Official close$1,126.70+2.79 (+0.25%)
Bid$1,124.21
Ask$1,128.20
Previous close$1,123.91
ATR (14)3.06%
RSI (14)37.0
Volume942,712
Model reference$1,115.00
Upside scenario$1,180.00
Risk reference$1,090.00
Decision summary

LLY Shows Bullish Sentiment Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The market appears bullish on LLY despite a recent pullback. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential support. Positive news flow includes strong Q2 earnings, FDA approval for Mounjaro, and an acquisition of Merida Biosciences. While short-term bearish notes exist due to sector weakness and technical breakdown, analysts remain optimistic with price targets above the current level.

Wheel contextThe option market shows a bullish skew with higher call open interest than put open interest. The term structure is backwardated, suggesting expectations for lower volatility in the future.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious dip-buy for potential oversold bounce over 1-3 weeks; high uncertainty from sector/macro weakness, rates, and technical breakdown. Prefer confirmation of support hold.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish with ~15-20% upside potential toward consensus analyst targets of $1290-1340, supported by continued GLP-1 volume, raised guidance, pipeline (retatrutide submissions 2027), and manufacturing expansion. High uncertainty remains due to premium valuation (PEG ~1.3), competition, reimbursement/access risks, interest-rate sensitivity, and broader market/healthcare volatility; possible range 1050-1250 with upside bias if sentiment stabilizes.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautiously constructive. Analysts reiterating Outperform with $1400 PT citing Foundayo access and incretin growth. Positive mentions of compounding crackdown boosting branded demand. Some short-term bearish notes on recent red days, watchlists targeting 1200 resistance, and market/liquidity pressure. Overall, long-term obesity franchise strength acknowledged but near-term volatility and valuation concerns dominate.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,192.65
50D SMA$1,187.70
200D SMA$1,064.17
9D EMA$1,155.18
21D EMA$1,175.29
20D MVWAP$1,199.46
YTD VWAP$1,062.12
Daily reference VWAP$1,127.33
Price vs 20D SMA-5.74%
Price vs 50D SMA-5.35%
Price vs 200D SMA5.64%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)22.25
RSI (14)37.00
RSI (21)42.67
Stochastic K6.61
Stochastic D8.71
MACD line-14.28
MACD histogram-3.45
ADX (14)14.60
MACD acceleration-3.00
RSI velocity-2.09
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.73
ATR (14) %3.06%
Bollinger upper$1,281.75
Bollinger middle$1,192.65
Bollinger lower$1,103.56
Bollinger position0.12%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility30.20%
Observed range position14.11%
5D true high$1,187.83
5D true low$1,113.55
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume942,712
20D average volume1.18M
Volume vs 20D average0.80x
20D SMA velocity-3.92
50D SMA velocity-1.12
Institutional flow-3.04
ATR velocity-0.73
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,126.70
DateSep 9, 2026
Volume942,712
Vwap D$1,127.33
Mvwap 20$1,199.46
Change2.79
Change Percentage0.25%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,192.65
Sma 50$1,187.70
Sma 200$1,064.17
Ema 9$1,155.18
Ema 21$1,175.29
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 722.25
Rsi 1437.00
Rsi 2142.67
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K6.61
Stoch D8.71
Macd Line-14.28
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-3.45
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr34.36
Atr Pct3.06%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv32.16
Iv Rank24.00
Iv Percentile25.90%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,281.8
Bb Middle1,192.7
Bb Lower1,103.6
Bb Pctb0.12
True High$1,138.79
True Low$1,119.00
True High 5d$1,187.83
True Low 5d$1,113.55
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.92
Sma50$-1.12
Mvwap20$-3.04
Macd-3.00
Rsi-2.09
Volume-2,306
Atr-0.73
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
96
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
57
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
44
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
48

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Shows Bullish Sentiment Despite Recent Pullback

The market appears bullish on LLY despite a recent pullback. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential support. Positive news flow includes strong Q2 earnings, FDA approval for Mounjaro, and an acquisition of Merida Biosciences. While short-term bearish notes exist due to sector weakness and technical breakdown, analysts remain optimistic with price targets above the current level.

Front ATM IV36.58%
Current IV32.47%
IV Rank25.54
IV Percentile28.29%
25Δ skew1.15
Term slope-3.77
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread18.80%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
36.6%32.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-112.0036.58%—
2026-09-189.0032.67%—
2026-09-2516.0032.81%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,100.00
Long strike$1,095.00
Net credit / share$0.82
Credit / width16.50%
$82$-418$1,092.25$1,102.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,145.00
Long strike$1,150.00
Net credit / share$1.17
Credit / width23.30%
$117$-383$1,142.25$1,152.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • LLY's stock price is trading near its 200-day moving average, indicating potential support.
  • Recent positive news includes strong Q2 earnings, FDA approval for Mounjaro, and an acquisition of Merida Biosciences.
  • Analysts are reiterating Outperform ratings with price targets above the current level.
Risk context
  • Sector weakness and technical breakdown could lead to further short-term downside.
  • Valuation concerns remain due to LLY's premium P/E ratio.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score57.10

The option market shows a bullish skew with higher call open interest than put open interest. The term structure is backwardated, suggesting expectations for lower volatility in the future.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.06B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.49%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread18.80%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 9, 2026 12:08 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $1130.00 | $23.55 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.06T
P/E (TTM)40.5×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return58.05%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity73d95a4cc36dda02f1761230

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy