Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank59.5/ 100
Official close$1,139.32+23.62 (+2.12%)
Bid$1,137.01
Ask$1,142.00
Previous close$1,115.70
ATR (14)2.83%
RSI (14)42.5
Volume1.01M
Model reference$1,135.00
Upside scenario$1,220.00
Risk reference$1,095.00
Decision summary

LLY Shows Signs of Bullish Rebound

BalancedHigh confidence

The market appears cautiously optimistic on LLY, despite recent pullback. Positive catalysts include strong Q2 earnings, raised guidance, and acquisitions in promising areas like neuroscience and mental health. While short-term technical indicators are mixed, the stock is showing support at $1,100-$1,115 and has potential for an oversold bounce. However, competition from Novo Nordisk and high valuation remain concerns.

Wheel contextThe market is watching for confirmation of the bullish bounce. A break above resistance at $1,180-1,280 would strengthen the case.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious speculative buy for 1-3 week oversold bounce given today's +2.5% rebound and support test. High uncertainty from mixed/bearish short-term indicators, elevated valuation, GLP-1 competition, and lack of confirmation. Not financial advice; position sizing critical.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish bias on GLP-1 dominance (Mounjaro/Zepbound), raised guidance, pipeline via acquisitions, and oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) progress. Analyst targets imply 15-45% upside (Citi $1,600). Significant uncertainty: intensifying Novo Nordisk competition, pricing/reimbursement risks, high P/E, regulatory/pipeline delays, and market volatility. Potential $1,250-1,400 on positive catalysts or pullback toward $1,000 if sentiment weakens. Monitor late-Oct Q3 earnings. High uncertainty overall.


Market sentiment context

Mixed but cautiously optimistic among traders. Notes of support test at $1,100-1,115 with bounce/bull-flag potential if held; positive on Q2 results, GLP-1 demand, and acquisitions (neuroscience/psychedelics). Dip-buying interest amid fundamentals. Some high-valuation caution in older posts; recent spam trading groups. Overall dip opportunity viewed amid strength.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,181.03
50D SMA$1,183.14
200D SMA$1,065.19
9D EMA$1,141.37
21D EMA$1,163.07
20D MVWAP$1,190.91
YTD VWAP$1,062.79
Daily reference VWAP$1,140.91
Price vs 20D SMA-3.62%
Price vs 50D SMA-3.79%
Price vs 200D SMA6.86%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)41.23
RSI (14)42.46
RSI (21)45.47
Stochastic K8.03
Stochastic D6.25
MACD line-18.12
MACD histogram-10.46
ADX (14)14.30
MACD acceleration-1.28
RSI velocity1.82
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.70
ATR (14) %2.83%
Bollinger upper$1,281.08
Bollinger middle$1,181.03
Bollinger lower$1,080.98
Bollinger position0.29%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility30.19%
Observed range position21.85%
5D true high$1,153.95
5D true low$1,113.29
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.01M
20D average volume1.16M
Volume vs 20D average0.87x
20D SMA velocity-3.87
50D SMA velocity-1.52
Institutional flow-2.85
ATR velocity-0.70
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,139.32
DateSep 14, 2026
Volume1.01M
Vwap D$1,140.91
Mvwap 20$1,190.91
Change23.62
Change Percentage2.12%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,181.03
Sma 50$1,183.14
Sma 200$1,065.19
Ema 9$1,141.37
Ema 21$1,163.07
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 741.23
Rsi 1442.46
Rsi 2145.47
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K8.03
Stoch D6.25
Macd Line-18.12
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-10.46
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr32.26
Atr Pct2.83%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv31.65
Iv Rank21.46
Iv Percentile21.51%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,281.1
Bb Middle1,181.0
Bb Lower1,081.0
Bb Pctb0.29
True High$1,153.95
True Low$1,115.70
True High 5d$1,153.95
True Low 5d$1,113.29
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-3.87
Sma50$-1.52
Mvwap20$-2.85
Macd-1.28
Rsi1.82
Volume22,626
Atr-0.70
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
89
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
70
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
46
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
43

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Shows Signs of Bullish Rebound

The market appears cautiously optimistic on LLY, despite recent pullback. Positive catalysts include strong Q2 earnings, raised guidance, and acquisitions in promising areas like neuroscience and mental health. While short-term technical indicators are mixed, the stock is showing support at $1,100-$1,115 and has potential for an oversold bounce. However, competition from Novo Nordisk and high valuation remain concerns.

Front ATM IV34.14%
Current IV31.58%
IV Rank21.09
IV Percentile21.12%
25Δ skew0.66
Term slope-2.17
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread20.18%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
34.1%31.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-184.0034.14%
2026-09-2511.0031.74%
2026-10-0218.0031.97%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$1,115.00
Long strike$1,110.00
Net credit / share$1.42
Credit / width28.50%
$142$-358$1,107.25$1,117.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$1,170.00
Long strike$1,175.00
Net credit / share$1.03
Credit / width20.50%
$103$-397$1,167.25$1,177.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • LLY's Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound.
  • The company raised its FY 2026 guidance to $85-87B.
  • Recent acquisitions in neuroscience and mental health are seen as positive for future growth.
  • Support at $1,100-$1,115 suggests potential for a rebound.
Risk context
  • Competition from Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 space remains a significant risk.
  • High valuation could limit upside potential.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score69.50

The market is watching for confirmation of the bullish bounce. A break above resistance at $1,180-1,280 would strengthen the case.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.15B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.26%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread20.18%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 14, 2026 1:40 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $1145.00 | $26.58 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.05T
P/E (TTM)39.3×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return47.52%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identitye5253fbec4a27f568142e279

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy