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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank61.1/ 100
Official close$1,138.00+1.89 (+0.17%)
Bid$1,138.15
Ask$1,141.74
Previous close$1,136.11
ATR (14)2.73%
RSI (14)42.5
Volume626,246
Model reference$1,135.00
Upside scenario$1,220.00
Risk reference$1,095.00
Decision summary

LLY Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The LLY option market suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent pullback in price. The implied volatility is elevated, indicating expectations for increased price movement. The term structure of implied volatility shows a backwardation pattern, with near-term options more expensive than longer-term options, suggesting a belief that the stock will move soon. The reference spread data indicates potential upside risk.

Wheel contextLLY options are showing signs of bullish sentiment despite recent price weakness. The elevated implied volatility and backwardated term structure suggest traders expect a move in the near term.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious/speculative long on dip toward support given upgrade catalyst and obesity leadership, but high uncertainty from mixed technicals (short-term weakness), elevated valuation, and ~6 weeks to earnings. Prefer confirmation of bounce above $1,150; not a high-conviction trade. Risk of further pullback if support fails.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but uncertain: GLP-1 franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound/Foundayo) and pipeline (retatrutide filings 2027, acquisitions) support growth into Q3 earnings (late Oct) and beyond, with analyst PTs suggesting 12-25% upside. However, high PE (~38x trailing), competition (NVO), pricing/access risks, potential guidance misses, and broader market/sector volatility could cap gains or cause drawdowns. Long-term uptrend intact above $1,065 SMA200, but near-term chop likely. Not financial advice; high uncertainty around execution and macros.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously positive to mixed. Recent posts (Sep 2026) bullish on Berenberg upgrade, Foundayo traction, and retatrutide potentially larger than tirzepatide. Technical traders note testing key support ~$1,100-1,121 with bounce potential if holds (bull flag). Some older skepticism on high PE and institutional ownership, plus isolated short calls. Overall news-driven optimism amid pullback.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,174.28
50D SMA$1,179.91
200D SMA$1,065.49
9D EMA$1,139.82
21D EMA$1,158.55
20D MVWAP$1,186.85
YTD VWAP$1,063.20
Daily reference VWAP$1,140.56
Price vs 20D SMA-3.10%
Price vs 50D SMA-3.57%
Price vs 200D SMA6.79%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)41.60
RSI (14)42.53
RSI (21)45.47
Stochastic K22.35
Stochastic D14.21
MACD line-17.19
MACD histogram-12.98
ADX (14)12.62
MACD acceleration0.44
RSI velocity2.37
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.23
ATR (14) %2.73%
Bollinger upper$1,275.35
Bollinger middle$1,174.28
Bollinger lower$1,073.21
Bollinger position0.32%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility26.78%
Observed range position17.74%
5D true high$1,161.00
5D true low$1,113.29
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume626,246
20D average volume1.13M
Volume vs 20D average0.55x
20D SMA velocity-2.95
50D SMA velocity-1.58
Institutional flow-1.96
ATR velocity-0.23
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,138.00
DateSep 16, 2026
Volume626,246
Vwap D$1,140.56
Mvwap 20$1,186.85
Change1.89
Change Percentage0.17%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,174.28
Sma 50$1,179.91
Sma 200$1,065.49
Ema 9$1,139.82
Ema 21$1,158.55
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 741.60
Rsi 1442.53
Rsi 2145.47
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K22.35
Stoch D14.21
Macd Line-17.19
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-12.98
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr31.10
Atr Pct2.73%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv32.26
Iv Rank24.46
Iv Percentile26.29%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,275.4
Bb Middle1,174.3
Bb Lower1,073.2
Bb Pctb0.32
True High$1,151.23
True Low$1,132.63
True High 5d$1,161.00
True Low 5d$1,113.29
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-2.95
Sma50$-1.58
Mvwap20$-1.96
Macd0.44
Rsi2.37
Volume-34,932
Atr-0.23
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
90
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
72
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
46
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
50

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Option Market Implies Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The LLY option market suggests bullish sentiment despite a recent pullback in price. The implied volatility is elevated, indicating expectations for increased price movement. The term structure of implied volatility shows a backwardation pattern, with near-term options more expensive than longer-term options, suggesting a belief that the stock will move soon. The reference spread data indicates potential upside risk.

Front ATM IV34.73%
Current IV31.68%
IV Rank21.59
IV Percentile21.12%
Term slope-2.19
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread34.57%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
34.7%32.3%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-182.0034.73%—
2026-09-259.0032.32%—
2026-10-0216.0032.54%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,160.00
Long strike$1,165.00
Net credit / share$1.15
Credit / width23.10%
$115$-385$1,157.25$1,167.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (31.68%) suggests market expectations for significant price movement in LLY.
  • Backwardation in the term structure of implied volatility implies a belief that LLY's price will move soon.
  • Berenberg upgraded LLY to Buy with a raised price target, citing strong sales growth and potential upside from new products.
  • The reference spread data suggests potential for upside movement.
Risk context
  • High valuation (trailing P/E ~38) could limit upside potential.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score69.90

LLY options are showing signs of bullish sentiment despite recent price weakness. The elevated implied volatility and backwardated term structure suggest traders expect a move in the near term.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$712.56M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.12%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread34.57%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 16, 2026 12:55 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $1120.00 | $26.75 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.07T
P/E (TTM)39.9×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return50.69%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity43a2105dd88267b7aa6c5d82

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy