Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Eli Lilly and Co / LLY

StockHealthcarePharmaceuticals
JW Rank64.2/ 100
Official close$1,154.00+1.56 (+0.14%)
Bid$1,148.00
Ask$1,156.75
Previous close$1,152.44
ATR (14)2.56%
RSI (14)47.2
Volume1.22M
Model reference$1,140.00
Upside scenario$1,195.00
Risk reference$1,105.00
Decision summary

LLY Option Market Implies Continued Growth and Upside Potential

BalancedHigh confidence

The US options market for LLY suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, driven by strong fundamentals, recent positive news, and analyst upgrades. While short-term technicals are mixed, the underlying trend remains bullish with support at $1,063 and resistance at $1,178. Implied volatility is elevated but not extreme, reflecting investor anticipation for upcoming earnings and data readouts.

Wheel contextThe market is pricing in potential upside from upcoming earnings, obesity drug launches, and pipeline progress. Investors are also considering risks related to valuation, competition, and regulatory policy.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious/speculative buy on dip or hold for confirmation of bounce given mixed short-term technicals (below 50-day MA, negative MACD) versus strong fundamentals and upgrades. High uncertainty from pending EASD data, potential policy news, and consolidation. Not a high-conviction 1-3 week trade; position small if entering.

Three-month outlook

Constructive/positive bias toward $1,280-1,350 range if obesity franchise (injectables + oral Foundayo) and pipeline (retatrutide, oncology, mental health) continue delivering and guidance is met/exceeded. Raised 2026 outlook and analyst upgrades support. Key uncertainties/risks: premium valuation, GLP-1 competition, manufacturing/supply, and regulatory/pricing policy (e.g., MFN discussions). Execution on new launches and data readouts will be pivotal; volatility likely.


Market sentiment context

Cautiously bullish overall. Recent posts highlight Berenberg upgrade to Buy/$1,400 and Guggenheim Buy/$1,284, plus optimism on EASD data, Foundayo launch, obesity drugs expanding into standard of care for comorbidities, and acquisitions. Some technical notes of holding support/bull flag or oversold bounce potential. Counterpoints include lingering valuation concerns, short-term technical weakness, and policy risks. Analyst/retail lean positive on growth story amid upgrades.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,163.31
50D SMA$1,177.36
200D SMA$1,066.35
9D EMA$1,144.46
21D EMA$1,157.53
20D MVWAP$1,169.97
YTD VWAP$1,063.81
Daily reference VWAP$1,150.27
Price vs 20D SMA-0.89%
Price vs 50D SMA-2.07%
Price vs 200D SMA8.12%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)54.06
RSI (14)47.24
RSI (21)48.10
Stochastic K45.64
Stochastic D34.08
MACD line-13.70
MACD histogram-13.50
ADX (14)11.26
MACD acceleration1.36
RSI velocity1.75
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.85
ATR (14) %2.56%
Bollinger upper$1,243.95
Bollinger middle$1,163.31
Bollinger lower$1,082.68
Bollinger position0.44%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility19.43%
Observed range position22.62%
5D true high$1,161.00
5D true low$1,115.70
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.22M
20D average volume1.05M
Volume vs 20D average1.16x
20D SMA velocity-5.12
50D SMA velocity-1.50
Institutional flow-6.55
ATR velocity-0.85
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,154.00
DateSep 18, 2026
Volume1.22M
Vwap D$1,150.27
Mvwap 20$1,169.97
Change1.56
Change Percentage0.14%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,163.31
Sma 50$1,177.36
Sma 200$1,066.35
Ema 9$1,144.46
Ema 21$1,157.53
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 754.06
Rsi 1447.24
Rsi 2148.10
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K45.64
Stoch D34.08
Macd Line-13.70
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-13.50
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr29.50
Atr Pct2.56%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv30.90
Iv Rank17.71
Iv Percentile16.33%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,244.0
Bb Middle1,163.3
Bb Lower1,082.7
Bb Pctb0.44
True High$1,157.60
True Low$1,140.27
True High 5d$1,161.00
True Low 5d$1,115.70
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-5.12
Sma50$-1.50
Mvwap20$-6.55
Macd1.36
Rsi1.75
Volume147,988
Atr-0.85
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 29, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
92
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
71
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
57
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
84
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
47

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

LLY Option Market Implies Continued Growth and Upside Potential

The US options market for LLY suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, driven by strong fundamentals, recent positive news, and analyst upgrades. While short-term technicals are mixed, the underlying trend remains bullish with support at $1,063 and resistance at $1,178. Implied volatility is elevated but not extreme, reflecting investor anticipation for upcoming earnings and data readouts.

Front ATM IV29.89%
Current IV30.68%
IV Rank16.61
IV Percentile13.15%
25Δ skew0.72
Term slope1.18
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread20.66%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
31.5%29.9%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-257.0029.89%
2026-10-0214.0031.47%
2026-10-0921.0031.07%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$1,190.00
Long strike$1,195.00
Net credit / share$0.98
Credit / width19.50%
$98$-402$1,187.25$1,197.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Analyst upgrades to Buy with price targets above current levels.
  • Positive news flow regarding FDA approvals and pipeline advancements.
  • Strong revenue growth and raised guidance for 2026.
  • Bullish technical indicators like the uptrend in longer-term moving averages.
Risk context
  • Potential headwinds from discussed Medicaid pricing negotiations.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score70.10

The market is pricing in potential upside from upcoming earnings, obesity drug launches, and pipeline progress. Investors are also considering risks related to valuation, competition, and regulatory policy.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.41B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.76%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread20.66%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score84.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

LLY Covered Call signal

Sep 18, 2026 10:19 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $1150.00 | $19.75 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Eli Lilly and Co at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.08T
P/E (TTM)40.4×
Beta0.43
52-week range$712.05 – $1,292.65
52-week return48.79%
Shares outstanding941.74M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity92.58%
Operating margin42.22%
Net margin33.53%
Debt / equity1.60×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)31.69%
EPS growth (3Y)49.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.93%
Revenue / share (TTM)89.14
Book value / share35.98

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.75%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNew York Stock Exchange, Inc.
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1970-07-09
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityd221996071cf37923459ee56

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry LLY from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy