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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

ASML Holding NV / ASML

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank71.1/ 100
Official close$1,730.00+7.50 (+0.44%)
Bid$1,730.00
Ask$1,731.41
Previous close$1,722.50
ATR (14)3.11%
RSI (14)52.3
Volume873,757
Model reference$1,705.00
Upside scenario$1,795.00
Risk reference$1,660.00
Decision summary

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Export Uncertainty

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The market appears bullish on ASML despite recent news regarding export restrictions and a dip in price. The strong technical indicators, positive earnings guidance, and continued demand for its high-NA EUV tools suggest potential upside.

Wheel contextThe implied volatility skew is call-demand elevated, suggesting bullish sentiment towards near-term upside potential.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious dip-buy only, not a chase, over 1-3 weeks. Wait for a pullback toward entry; skip the trade if price runs without one. Uncertainty is high: Oct 14 earnings is about three weeks away and export headlines can gap through stops. These levels are a risk framework, not a forecast or advice.

Three-month outlook

Base case is modestly constructive if the Oct 14 print confirms the raised €43-45B guide and AI/High-NA tool demand stays firm, with a possible grind toward the high-$1,800s to low-$1,900s. Analyst targets near $2,100 are a longer-horizon reference, not a three-month promise. Uncertainty is material: trailing valuation is rich near 54x, China revenue share is expected to shrink under export limits, Europe system demand is currently zero, and a guidance miss or tighter restrictions could retest the mid-$1,500s. High beta means the path will not be smooth.

Market sentiment context

Thin and noisy on Sep 24. Longer-term posts still treat ASML as the EUV bottleneck for AI chips. Traders are watching roughly $1,580-$1,640 as demand and about $1,800 as resistance. Near-term chatter is dominated by whether US-Dutch diplomacy eases or tightens China export rules. Quality engagement is low; promo and ticker-list posts dilute the tape. Tone is cautiously constructive, not euphoric.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,686.03
50D SMA$1,718.39
200D SMA$1,521.80
9D EMA$1,700.04
21D EMA$1,698.91
20D MVWAP$1,678.37
YTD VWAP$1,573.23
Daily reference VWAP$1,720.07
Price vs 20D SMA2.16%
Price vs 50D SMA0.24%
Price vs 200D SMA13.19%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)57.30
RSI (14)52.31
RSI (21)50.98
Stochastic K76.21
Stochastic D71.76
MACD line-5.89
MACD histogram-16.57
ADX (14)12.35
MACD acceleration5.72
RSI velocity0.16
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.52
ATR (14) %3.11%
Bollinger upper$1,793.07
Bollinger middle$1,686.03
Bollinger lower$1,578.98
Bollinger position0.67%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility41.51%
Observed range position51.68%
5D true high$1,749.70
5D true low$1,628.20
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume873,757
20D average volume831,685
Volume vs 20D average1.05x
20D SMA velocity-0.25
50D SMA velocity-0.68
Institutional flow0.15
ATR velocity-0.52
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,730.00
DateSep 24, 2026
Volume873,757
Vwap D$1,720.07
Mvwap 20$1,678.37
Change7.50
Change Percentage0.44%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$1,686.03
Sma 50$1,718.39
Sma 200$1,521.80
Ema 9$1,700.04
Ema 21$1,698.91
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 757.30
Rsi 1452.31
Rsi 2150.98
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K76.21
Stoch D71.76
Macd Line-5.89
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-16.57
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr53.53
Atr Pct3.11%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv45.66
Iv Rank38.61
Iv Percentile47.01%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,793.1
Bb Middle1,686.0
Bb Lower1,579.0
Bb Pctb0.67
True High$1,744.61
True Low$1,700.88
True High 5d$1,749.70
True Low 5d$1,628.20
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.25
Sma50$-0.68
Mvwap20$0.15
Macd5.72
Rsi0.16
Volume-6,768
Atr-0.52
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskMedium
Earnings DateOct 14, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
94
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
70
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
78
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
91
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
64

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Export Uncertainty

The market appears bullish on ASML despite recent news regarding export restrictions and a dip in price. The strong technical indicators, positive earnings guidance, and continued demand for its high-NA EUV tools suggest potential upside.

Front ATM IV41.07%
Current IV46.43%
IV Rank40.66
IV Percentile50.20%
25Δ skew-5.19
Term slope-0.02
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.63%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
41.1%40.6%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-251.0041.07%—
2026-10-028.0040.59%—
2026-10-0915.0041.05%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,695.00
Long strike$1,680.00
Net credit / share$2.30
Credit / width15.33%
$230$-1,270$1,671.75$1,703.25Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,755.00
Long strike$1,760.00
Net credit / share$1.25
Credit / width25.00%
$125$-375$1,752.25$1,762.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • ASML's stock price has shown resilience after a slight pullback, remaining above key support levels.
  • The company raised its full-year sales guide, indicating strong demand for its products.
  • Positive updates on collaborations with major chipmakers like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC suggest continued growth in the high-NA EUV market.
  • Analysts maintain a 'Strong Buy' rating on ASML with an average target price significantly above current levels.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions related to China could negatively impact ASML's revenue.
  • A weaker than expected earnings report could trigger a sell-off.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score71.60

The implied volatility skew is call-demand elevated, suggesting bullish sentiment towards near-term upside potential.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.51B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.14%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.63%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score91.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ASML Covered Call signal

Sep 24, 2026 11:55 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-10-02 | short $1715.00 | $43.70 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

ASML Holding NV at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$575.80B
P/E (TTM)55.3×
Beta2.15
52-week range$801.70 – $1,741.00
52-week return85.46%
Shares outstanding388.15M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity41.52%
Operating margin34.82%
Net margin29.49%
Debt / equity0.19×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)15.55%
EPS growth (3Y)17.79%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)24.71%
Revenue / share (TTM)91.69
Book value / share67.68

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.94%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNyse Euronext Euronext Amsterdam
CountryNl
CurrencyEur
IPO date1995-02-01
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity36700449241f39af6c1d20a4

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy