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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

ASML Holding NV / ASML

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank63.6/ 100
Official close$1,599.19+24.04 (+1.53%)
Bid$1,597.00
Ask$1,600.57
Previous close$1,575.15
ATR (14)3.67%
RSI (14)38.1
Volume1.08M
Model reference$1,575.00
Upside scenario$1,675.00
Risk reference$1,510.00
Decision summary

ASML Option Market Prices in Continued Demand Despite Recent Dip

BalancedHigh confidence

The ASML option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting anticipation of continued volatility surrounding the company's upcoming earnings report. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a belief that short-term price movements will be more pronounced.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in a potential post-earnings move, with both bullish and bearish options seeing increased activity.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy/hold on dip due to oversold RSI but short-term downtrend and high pre-earnings (Oct 14) uncertainty from AI sentiment. High volatility. Not advice.

Three-month outlook

Robust fundamentals from High-NA progress, capacity growth, and AI/semiconductor demand support upside, but high uncertainty from AI capex debates, China risks, ~50 P/E valuation, and Oct earnings. Potential 10-20% swings; positive bias if demand persists, correction risk if sentiment weakens.

Market sentiment context

Mixed, cautiously long-term bullish on EUV monopoly and AI demand. Recent drop viewed as de-risking opportunity with strong bookings. Support watched at 1500. Valuation and geopolitics concerns. Volatility noted. ( )

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,709.06
50D SMA$1,730.32
200D SMA$1,500.86
9D EMA$1,664.18
21D EMA$1,698.14
20D MVWAP$1,703.51
YTD VWAP$1,569.76
Daily reference VWAP$1,594.60
Price vs 20D SMA-6.88%
Price vs 50D SMA-8.02%
Price vs 200D SMA6.04%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)31.78
RSI (14)38.09
RSI (21)41.88
Stochastic K18.64
Stochastic D32.65
MACD line-29.02
MACD histogram-16.12
ADX (14)14.04
MACD acceleration-5.61
RSI velocity-2.43
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.87
ATR (14) %3.67%
Bollinger upper$1,823.66
Bollinger middle$1,709.06
Bollinger lower$1,594.45
Bollinger position-0.01%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility40.46%
Observed range position9.30%
5D true high$1,764.85
5D true low$1,572.84
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.08M
20D average volume746,251
Volume vs 20D average1.44x
20D SMA velocity-11.84
50D SMA velocity-3.82
Institutional flow-14.60
ATR velocity0.87
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,599.19
DateSep 15, 2026
Volume1.08M
Vwap D$1,594.60
Mvwap 20$1,703.51
Change24.04
Change Percentage1.53%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,709.06
Sma 50$1,730.32
Sma 200$1,500.86
Ema 9$1,664.18
Ema 21$1,698.14
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 731.78
Rsi 1438.09
Rsi 2141.88
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K18.64
Stoch D32.65
Macd Line-29.02
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-16.12
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr58.47
Atr Pct3.67%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv43.38
Iv Rank32.52
Iv Percentile35.46%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,823.7
Bb Middle1,709.1
Bb Lower1,594.5
Bb Pctb-0.01
True High$1,616.55
True Low$1,575.15
True High 5d$1,764.85
True Low 5d$1,572.84
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-11.84
Sma50$-3.82
Mvwap20$-14.60
Macd-5.61
Rsi-2.43
Volume135,165
Atr0.87
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 14, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskHigh
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
98
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
72
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
44
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
91
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
55

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ASML Option Market Prices in Continued Demand Despite Recent Dip

The ASML option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price weakness. Implied volatility is elevated, suggesting anticipation of continued volatility surrounding the company's upcoming earnings report. The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a belief that short-term price movements will be more pronounced.

Front ATM IV46.72%
Current IV44.11%
IV Rank34.47
IV Percentile40.64%
25Δ skew-1.48
Term slope-4.57
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread15.46%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

2 observed expirations
46.7%42.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-183.0046.72%—
2026-09-2510.0042.15%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,550.00
Long strike$1,540.00
Net credit / share$2.65
Credit / width26.50%
$265$-735$1,534.50$1,555.50Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,640.00
Long strike$1,650.00
Net credit / share$2.05
Credit / width20.50%
$205$-795$1,634.50$1,655.50Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Elevated implied volatility (44.11%) suggests market expectation of significant price swings around the upcoming earnings release on October 14th.
  • Backwardated term structure with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options points to anticipation of heightened short-term volatility.
  • Positive sentiment from XAI SYMBOL ANALYSIS regarding ASML's EUV monopoly and AI demand, despite recent price drops attributed to AI slowdown concerns.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical risks and China's semiconductor sector could negatively impact ASML's future growth.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score71.80

The market appears to be pricing in a potential post-earnings move, with both bullish and bearish options seeing increased activity.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.71B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.30%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread15.46%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score91.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ASML Covered Call signal

Sep 15, 2026 10:07 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $1600.00 | $26.20 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

ASML Holding NV at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$564.73B
P/E (TTM)54.2×
Beta2.26
52-week range$729.50 – $1,741.00
52-week return100.60%
Shares outstanding388.15M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity41.52%
Operating margin34.82%
Net margin29.49%
Debt / equity0.19×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)15.55%
EPS growth (3Y)17.79%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)24.71%
Revenue / share (TTM)91.69
Book value / share67.68

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.94%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNyse Euronext Euronext Amsterdam
CountryNl
CurrencyEur
IPO date1995-02-01
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityea909a8dd2f892f2b778a32f

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy