Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

ASML Holding NV / ASML

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank65.1/ 100
Official close$1,722.81-42.04 (-2.38%)
Bid$1,717.00
Ask$1,724.32
Previous close$1,764.85
ATR (14)3.27%
RSI (14)49.8
Volume646,472
Model reference$1,720.00
Upside scenario$1,810.00
Risk reference$1,685.00
Decision summary

ASML Shows Signs of Continued Strength Despite Recent Dip

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The market appears bullish on ASML despite a recent dip in price. The company's strong fundamentals, driven by high demand for its EUV lithography equipment, are supported by positive news regarding partnerships with Intel, TSMC, and Samsung. Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive, with a consensus target price significantly above the current level. While short-term technical indicators show some caution, the long-term uptrend remains intact.

Wheel contextThe recent dip in ASML's price presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a long-term horizon.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Hold or cautious small long on further dip given mixed short-term technicals (fading MACD, below short MAs) despite positive news. High uncertainty from volatility, profit-taking after gains, and broader market/geopolitical factors. Not a high-conviction 1-3 week trade.

Three-month outlook

Constructive/positive, driven by AI capex, High-NA EUV adoption ramp (Intel production, TSMC/Samsung commitments), 30% capacity expansions planned 2027-28, and raised 2026 guidance. Analysts project continued strong growth. Potential to $1900-2100 if momentum holds. Significant uncertainty: geopolitical/export risks (esp. China), semiconductor cycle, High-NA execution/yield, rich valuation (forward P/E 31+), and possible profit-taking or macro slowdown. Not guaranteed; wide range of outcomes.


Market sentiment context

Recent posts (Sept 9) focus on High-NA EUV milestones with Intel/TSMC/Samsung as bullish catalysts, plus first-ever ASML quantum involvement via Xanadu collab (seen as exploratory but notable). Some highlight analyst PT hikes (e.g., UBS to €2350) and YTD gains ~65%. Mixed views: constructive on AI/EUV monopoly and growth, but notes of rich valuation, past volatility, and today's dip. Overall moderately bullish long-term with short-term caution.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,750.70
50D SMA$1,747.81
200D SMA$1,487.79
9D EMA$1,717.98
21D EMA$1,728.27
20D MVWAP$1,754.48
YTD VWAP$1,568.66
Daily reference VWAP$1,734.44
Price vs 20D SMA-1.21%
Price vs 50D SMA-1.05%
Price vs 200D SMA16.25%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)51.98
RSI (14)49.79
RSI (21)49.86
Stochastic K63.59
Stochastic D44.10
MACD line-10.30
MACD histogram-9.30
ADX (14)13.10
MACD acceleration3.06
RSI velocity3.64
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.57
ATR (14) %3.27%
Bollinger upper$1,874.99
Bollinger middle$1,750.70
Bollinger lower$1,626.41
Bollinger position0.41%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility32.91%
Observed range position40.76%
5D true high$1,790.00
5D true low$1,619.34
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume646,472
20D average volume732,736
Volume vs 20D average0.88x
20D SMA velocity-1.08
50D SMA velocity-2.06
Institutional flow-1.82
ATR velocity0.57
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,722.81
DateSep 9, 2026
Volume646,472
Vwap D$1,734.44
Mvwap 20$1,754.48
Change-42.04
Change Percentage 2.38%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,750.70
Sma 50$1,747.81
Sma 200$1,487.79
Ema 9$1,717.98
Ema 21$1,728.27
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 751.98
Rsi 1449.79
Rsi 2149.86
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K63.59
Stoch D44.10
Macd Line-10.30
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-9.30
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr56.48
Atr Pct3.27%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv43.67
Iv Rank36.38
Iv Percentile37.45%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,875.0
Bb Middle1,750.7
Bb Lower1,626.4
Bb Pctb0.41
True High$1,764.85
True Low$1,722.92
True High 5d$1,790.00
True Low 5d$1,619.34
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-1.08
Sma50$-2.06
Mvwap20$-1.82
Macd3.06
Rsi3.64
Volume-94,807
Atr0.57
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 14, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
94
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
60
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
91
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
63

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ASML Shows Signs of Continued Strength Despite Recent Dip

The market appears bullish on ASML despite a recent dip in price. The company's strong fundamentals, driven by high demand for its EUV lithography equipment, are supported by positive news regarding partnerships with Intel, TSMC, and Samsung. Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive, with a consensus target price significantly above the current level. While short-term technical indicators show some caution, the long-term uptrend remains intact.

Front ATM IV47.44%
Current IV44.29%
IV Rank37.96
IV Percentile40.64%
25Δ skew-1.38
Term slope-5.34
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread9.91%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
47.4%42.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-112.0047.44%
2026-09-189.0043.19%
2026-09-2516.0042.10%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$1,690.00
Long strike$1,685.00
Net credit / share$1.15
Credit / width23.00%
$115$-385$1,682.25$1,692.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook to €43-45B after strong Q2 results.
  • The company has secured major partnerships with Intel, TSMC, and Samsung for its High-NA EUV technology.
  • Analyst consensus is strongly bullish with an average target price of $2168 (~25% upside).
  • ASML's long-term uptrend remains intact with a golden-cross history.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical risks, particularly those related to China, could impact ASML's business.
  • ASML's valuation is considered high by some analysts.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score66.30

The recent dip in ASML's price presents a potential buying opportunity for investors with a long-term horizon.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.12B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.24%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread9.91%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score91.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ASML Covered Call signal

Sep 9, 2026 9:46 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $1732.50 | $28.45 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

ASML Holding NV at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$573.13B
P/E (TTM)52.2×
Beta2.29
52-week range$674.10 – $1,741.00
52-week return118.72%
Shares outstanding388.15M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity41.52%
Operating margin34.82%
Net margin29.49%
Debt / equity0.19×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)15.55%
EPS growth (3Y)17.79%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)24.71%
Revenue / share (TTM)91.69
Book value / share67.68

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.94%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNyse Euronext Euronext Amsterdam
CountryNl
CurrencyEur
IPO date1995-02-01
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityc90bda0dba56b3486d07f321

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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