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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

ASML Holding NV / ASML

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank62.7/ 100
Official close$1,628.20+25.98 (+1.62%)
Bid$1,627.59
Ask$1,632.43
Previous close$1,602.22
ATR (14)3.44%
RSI (14)42.9
Volume974,836
Model reference$1,605.00
Upside scenario$1,700.00
Risk reference$1,565.00
Decision summary

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The market appears cautiously bullish on ASML despite a recent pullback. Strong Q2 earnings, raised guidance, and new EUV collaborations with major chipmakers have fueled optimism. While concerns remain around AI spending slowdown and geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is positive, with analysts maintaining Buy/Overweight ratings and target prices above current levels.

Wheel contextASML's recent pullback has created a potential buying opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the EUV market.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy on any further dip for a potential 1-3 week bounce toward resistance ahead of Oct earnings, given oversold RSI and strong fundamentals; high uncertainty from sector rotation and macro headlines.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish with potential 15-30% upside toward consensus analyst targets around $2100, driven by High-NA EUV ramp, capacity additions, Q3 results (guided €11-12B sales), and AI/semiconductor demand; however, substantial uncertainty exists from possible AI spending slowdown, higher rates, geopolitical/China risks, earnings volatility on Oct 14, and overall market/semiconductor sentiment—outcomes could range from continued recovery to further drawdown.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously bullish overall; many investors view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity citing EUV monopoly, record backlog/bookings, raised guidance, and now-cheaper valuation vs history/peers; concerns around AI capex slowdown, geopolitics/China export risks, and still-premium multiples; mixed comparisons to other equipment names; notable spam but core discussion praises fundamentals with short-term volatility acknowledged.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,692.92
50D SMA$1,724.64
200D SMA$1,506.51
9D EMA$1,647.37
21D EMA$1,683.98
20D MVWAP$1,683.25
YTD VWAP$1,570.21
Daily reference VWAP$1,627.46
Price vs 20D SMA-3.74%
Price vs 50D SMA-5.51%
Price vs 200D SMA8.18%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)42.03
RSI (14)42.86
RSI (21)44.77
Stochastic K16.09
Stochastic D14.15
MACD line-33.16
MACD histogram-22.19
ADX (14)14.98
MACD acceleration-3.48
RSI velocity2.26
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-1.25
ATR (14) %3.44%
Bollinger upper$1,809.22
Bollinger middle$1,692.92
Bollinger lower$1,576.62
Bollinger position0.23%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility38.39%
Observed range position18.00%
5D true high$1,727.31
5D true low$1,572.84
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume974,836
20D average volume752,814
Volume vs 20D average1.29x
20D SMA velocity-10.24
50D SMA velocity-3.45
Institutional flow-12.82
ATR velocity-1.25
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,628.20
DateSep 17, 2026
Volume974,836
Vwap D$1,627.46
Mvwap 20$1,683.25
Change25.98
Change Percentage1.62%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,692.92
Sma 50$1,724.64
Sma 200$1,506.51
Ema 9$1,647.37
Ema 21$1,683.98
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 742.03
Rsi 1442.86
Rsi 2144.77
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K16.09
Stoch D14.15
Macd Line-33.16
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-22.19
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr56.02
Atr Pct3.44%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv42.42
Iv Rank29.99
Iv Percentile31.08%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,809.2
Bb Middle1,692.9
Bb Lower1,576.6
Bb Pctb0.23
True High$1,638.70
True Low$1,602.22
True High 5d$1,727.31
True Low 5d$1,572.84
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-10.24
Sma50$-3.45
Mvwap20$-12.82
Macd-3.48
Rsi2.26
Volume-107,973
Atr-1.25
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 14, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
98
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
70
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
46
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
91
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
48

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Recent Pullback

The market appears cautiously bullish on ASML despite a recent pullback. Strong Q2 earnings, raised guidance, and new EUV collaborations with major chipmakers have fueled optimism. While concerns remain around AI spending slowdown and geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is positive, with analysts maintaining Buy/Overweight ratings and target prices above current levels.

Front ATM IV38.53%
Current IV41.99%
IV Rank28.85
IV Percentile28.69%
25Δ skew0.48
Term slope0.44
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.61%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
39.0%38.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-181.0038.53%—
2026-09-258.0038.15%—
2026-10-0215.0038.97%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,610.00
Long strike$1,600.00
Net credit / share$2.55
Credit / width25.50%
$255$-745$1,594.50$1,615.50Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,650.00
Long strike$1,660.00
Net credit / share$2.20
Credit / width22.00%
$220$-780$1,644.50$1,665.50Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • ASML's recent pullback appears to be a buying opportunity for investors who view the company's fundamentals as strong.
  • Analysts largely maintain Buy/Overweight ratings on ASML with average targets ~$2100-2160.
  • The company reported strong Q2 results, including 21% YoY sales growth and raised full-year guidance to €43-45B sales.
Risk context
  • AI spending slowdown could impact ASML's future growth.
  • Geopolitical risks and China export restrictions pose a threat to the company's business.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score70.00

ASML's recent pullback has created a potential buying opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the EUV market.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.59B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.45%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread8.61%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score91.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ASML Covered Call signal

Sep 17, 2026 12:40 PM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $1615.00 | $39.05 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

ASML Holding NV at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$526.68B
P/E (TTM)50.6×
Beta2.26
52-week range$783.40 – $1,741.00
52-week return73.72%
Shares outstanding388.15M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity41.52%
Operating margin34.82%
Net margin29.49%
Debt / equity0.19×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)15.55%
EPS growth (3Y)17.79%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)24.71%
Revenue / share (TTM)91.69
Book value / share67.68

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.94%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNyse Euronext Euronext Amsterdam
CountryNl
CurrencyEur
IPO date1995-02-01
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity0ee674cce0f092425e823864

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy