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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

ASML Holding NV / ASML

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank67.6/ 100
Official close$1,671.89+42.22 (+2.59%)
Bid$1,672.80
Ask$1,677.99
Previous close$1,629.67
ATR (14)3.32%
RSI (14)48.6
Volume984,253
Model reference$1,625.00
Upside scenario$1,720.00
Risk reference$1,575.00
Decision summary

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Recent Pullback

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The market appears cautiously bullish on ASML despite recent price weakness. While technical indicators show a short-term downtrend, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. The company's Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates, and its outlook for 2026 sales was raised due to strong demand driven by AI.

Wheel contextThe current market sentiment suggests a potential dip-buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term horizon.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious hold or small dip-buy only; mixed technicals and upcoming earnings (Oct 14) create high near-term uncertainty and volatility risk. Not a high-conviction short-term trade.

Three-month outlook

Moderately positive with analyst 12-month targets clustered $1970-2135 implying 20-30% upside if AI capex and High-NA adoption continue. Raised 2026 guidance, capacity expansions, and monopoly position support growth, but high valuation (P/E 50+), geopolitical/China risks, potential semiconductor cycle slowdown, and earnings volatility introduce significant uncertainty. Could range 1500-1900 depending on macro and results; not a low-risk hold.

Market sentiment context

Cautiously mixed to bullish among recent posts. Some traders view current levels as a buy opportunity around 1600-1630 citing EUV monopoly, strong backlog/bookings, and valuation compression vs history/peers. Mentions of ASML as core AI infrastructure play. Older high-engagement posts highlight cheap relative multiples and long-term thesis. Limited very recent organic discussion; some promotional spam. Overall sentiment reflects pullback fatigue but fundamental confidence. High uncertainty as X activity is sparse and not a reliable predictor.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$1,689.40
50D SMA$1,722.15
200D SMA$1,509.47
9D EMA$1,653.88
21D EMA$1,683.62
20D MVWAP$1,679.48
YTD VWAP$1,570.68
Daily reference VWAP$1,663.24
Price vs 20D SMA-0.56%
Price vs 50D SMA-2.45%
Price vs 200D SMA11.29%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)53.27
RSI (14)48.59
RSI (21)48.35
Stochastic K29.67
Stochastic D17.83
MACD line-29.07
MACD histogram-23.57
ADX (14)14.48
MACD acceleration-0.02
RSI velocity3.50
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.88
ATR (14) %3.32%
Bollinger upper$1,802.60
Bollinger middle$1,689.40
Bollinger lower$1,576.19
Bollinger position0.46%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility40.24%
Observed range position29.45%
5D true high$1,698.30
5D true low$1,572.84
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume984,253
20D average volume775,849
Volume vs 20D average1.27x
20D SMA velocity-6.55
50D SMA velocity-2.72
Institutional flow-7.99
ATR velocity-0.88
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$1,671.89
DateSep 18, 2026
Volume984,253
Vwap D$1,663.24
Mvwap 20$1,679.48
Change42.22
Change Percentage2.59%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$1,689.40
Sma 50$1,722.15
Sma 200$1,509.47
Ema 9$1,653.88
Ema 21$1,683.62
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 753.27
Rsi 1448.59
Rsi 2148.35
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K29.67
Stoch D17.83
Macd Line-29.07
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-23.57
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr55.84
Atr Pct3.32%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv44.07
Iv Rank34.36
Iv Percentile40.24%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper1,802.6
Bb Middle1,689.4
Bb Lower1,576.2
Bb Pctb0.46
True High$1,681.61
True Low$1,628.20
True High 5d$1,698.30
True Low 5d$1,572.84
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-6.55
Sma50$-2.72
Mvwap20$-7.99
Macd-0.02
Rsi3.50
Volume-32,615
Atr-0.88
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 14, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
77
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
54
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
91
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
57

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ASML Shows Signs of Strength Despite Recent Pullback

The market appears cautiously bullish on ASML despite recent price weakness. While technical indicators show a short-term downtrend, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. The company's Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates, and its outlook for 2026 sales was raised due to strong demand driven by AI.

Front ATM IV37.94%
Current IV43.90%
IV Rank33.92
IV Percentile38.65%
25Δ skew0.16
Term slope1.28
Term structureFlat
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.80%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
39.3%37.9%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-257.0037.94%—
2026-10-0214.0039.31%—
2026-10-0921.0039.22%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$1,590.00
Long strike$1,585.00
Net credit / share$1.15
Credit / width23.00%
$115$-385$1,582.25$1,592.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • ASML's recent earnings report exceeded expectations with €9.3B revenue and €2.9B net income.
  • The company raised its 2026 sales outlook to €43-45B, citing strong demand for its EUV lithography systems driven by AI.
  • Analysts remain optimistic about ASML's long-term growth prospects, with 12-month price targets clustered between $1970 and $2135.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical risks, particularly those related to China, could impact ASML's business.
  • Capacity constraints and a potential slowdown in the semiconductor cycle pose downside risks.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score76.80

The current market sentiment suggests a potential dip-buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term horizon.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$1.65B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.31%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread7.80%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score91.20
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ASML Covered Call signal

Sep 18, 2026 9:45 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-25 | short $1645.00 | $38.10 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

ASML Holding NV at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$533.33B
P/E (TTM)51.2×
Beta2.26
52-week range$796.00 – $1,741.00
52-week return72.20%
Shares outstanding388.15M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity41.52%
Operating margin34.82%
Net margin29.49%
Debt / equity0.19×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)15.55%
EPS growth (3Y)17.79%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)24.71%
Revenue / share (TTM)91.69
Book value / share67.68

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.94%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNyse Euronext Euronext Amsterdam
CountryNl
CurrencyEur
IPO date1995-02-01
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityd0a5837df7bde1b7d3d342d0

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy