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JW Intelligence Report

Tesla Inc / TSLA

StockConsumer DiscretionaryAutomobiles
JW Rank58.7/ 100
Official close$366.92+8.84 (+2.47%)
Bid$366.71
Ask$366.85
Previous close$358.08
ATR (14)3.67%
RSI (14)54.8
Volume27.91M
Model reference$360.00
Upside scenario$385.00
Risk reference$348.00
Decision summary

TSLA Option Market Implies Uncertainty Amidst Mixed Signals

BalancedHigh confidence

The TSLA option market reflects a cautious outlook with mixed signals. While recent price action shows a short-term bounce and bullish momentum indicators, the underlying trend remains bearish according to technical analysis. The term structure exhibits backwardation, suggesting a preference for near-term options over longer-dated ones. High implied volatility underscores investor uncertainty surrounding upcoming events like the Cybercab regulatory deadline and Q3 earnings.

Wheel contextThe current option pricing suggests a range-bound trading environment for TSLA in the near term.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious/wait for pullback; today's bounce into resistance with high uncertainty from Cybercab regulatory deadline (Sep 30) and lofty valuation. Not chasing; high volatility likely.

Three-month outlook

Highly uncertain. Potential catalysts: Cybercab/Robotaxi progress, Oct 1 Roadster event, possible merger rumors, Q3 earnings (Oct 21). Risks: NHTSA Cybercab compliance, high capex/negative FCF, competition, PE 340+, delivery misses, broader market. Could trade 320-420 range; analysts mixed with ~8% avg upside to $397. Expect continued high volatility; no strong directional conviction.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautiously bullish among retail. Optimism on short squeeze, SpaceX merger (some $480-600 targets), Robotaxi/FSD/Optimus. Sentiment trackers showed swings (e.g. 7.0 then drop to -2.0). Trader discussion groups forming. Long-term faith in Musk vision/autonomy but short-term caution on valuation, regs, and recent weakness. Some older posts noted negative sentiment.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$358.64
50D SMA$351.09
200D SMA$397.66
9D EMA$361.37
21D EMA$357.51
20D MVWAP$359.64
YTD VWAP$393.41
Daily reference VWAP$367.85
Price vs 20D SMA2.11%
Price vs 50D SMA4.30%
Price vs 200D SMA-7.91%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)57.57
RSI (14)54.81
RSI (21)52.65
Stochastic K40.36
Stochastic D39.59
MACD line3.79
MACD histogram3.59
ADX (14)21.02
MACD acceleration-0.26
RSI velocity1.10
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.14
ATR (14) %3.67%
Bollinger upper$375.68
Bollinger middle$358.64
Bollinger lower$341.60
Bollinger position0.72%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility49.42%
Observed range position53.46%
5D true high$374.12
5D true low$354.05
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume27.91M
20D average volume29.43M
Volume vs 20D average0.95x
20D SMA velocity0.89
50D SMA velocity-0.91
Institutional flow0.81
ATR velocity-0.14
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$366.92
DateSep 17, 2026
Volume27.91M
Vwap D$367.85
Mvwap 20$359.64
Change8.84
Change Percentage2.47%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$358.64
Sma 50$351.09
Sma 200$397.66
Ema 9$361.37
Ema 21$357.51
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 757.57
Rsi 1454.81
Rsi 2152.65
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K40.36
Stoch D39.59
Macd Line3.79
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist3.59
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr13.43
Atr Pct3.67%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv40.56
Iv Rank22.40
Iv Percentile13.15%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper375.7
Bb Middle358.6
Bb Lower341.6
Bb Pctb0.72
True High$374.12
True Low$358.08
True High 5d$374.12
True Low 5d$354.05
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.89
Sma50$-0.91
Mvwap20$0.81
Macd-0.26
Rsi1.10
Volume1.52M
Atr-0.14
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
98
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
62
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
38
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
33

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSLA Option Market Implies Uncertainty Amidst Mixed Signals

The TSLA option market reflects a cautious outlook with mixed signals. While recent price action shows a short-term bounce and bullish momentum indicators, the underlying trend remains bearish according to technical analysis. The term structure exhibits backwardation, suggesting a preference for near-term options over longer-dated ones. High implied volatility underscores investor uncertainty surrounding upcoming events like the Cybercab regulatory deadline and Q3 earnings.

Front ATM IV45.23%
Current IV41.48%
IV Rank25.45
IV Percentile19.52%
25Δ skew-0.62
Term slope-2.44
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.60%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
45.2%38.4%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-181.0045.23%—
2026-09-236.0038.41%—
2026-10-0215.0042.79%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$360.00
Long strike$357.50
Net credit / share$0.51
Credit / width20.20%
$51$-199$356.13$361.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$372.50
Long strike$375.00
Net credit / share$0.45
Credit / width18.00%
$45$-205$371.13$376.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Short-term bullish momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are present but long-term bearish signals persist (death cross).
  • Backwardated term structure with higher IV for near-term options indicates uncertainty about future price direction.
  • High implied volatility (41.48%) reflects market anxiety surrounding upcoming events like the Cybercab deadline and Q3 earnings.
  • Mixed sentiment from retail traders, with optimism on short squeeze and merger speculation countered by caution regarding valuation and regulatory risks.
Risk context
  • Cybercab regulatory deadline (Sep 30) could trigger significant price swings.
  • Q3 earnings release (Oct 21) may disappoint investors and lead to further downside pressure.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score67.80

The current option pricing suggests a range-bound trading environment for TSLA in the near term.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$10.22B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.04%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.60%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score37.80
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSLA Covered Call signal

Sep 17, 2026 9:32 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $367.50 | $5.60 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Tesla Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.41T
P/E (TTM)370.0×
Beta1.75
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
52-week return-13.04%
Shares outstanding3.95B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity4.57%
Operating margin4.22%
Net margin3.67%
Debt / equity0.10×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)5.19%
EPS growth (3Y)-33.28%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)18.16%
Revenue / share (TTM)29.27
Book value / share23.13

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJun 29, 2010
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity0d6ceb6ff482a80dbda5d4c6

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy