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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Tesla Inc / TSLA

StockConsumer DiscretionaryAutomobiles
JW Rank53.9/ 100
Official close$367.09+13.01 (+3.67%)
Bid$367.03
Ask$367.43
Previous close$354.08
ATR (14)4.16%
RSI (14)55.7
Volume38.20M
Model reference$365.00
Upside scenario$385.00
Risk reference$348.00
Decision summary

TSLA Option Market Prices in Optimism Despite Recent Volatility

BalancedHigh confidence

The TSLA option market displays a bullish sentiment despite recent volatility. Implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding upcoming earnings and regulatory developments. However, strong call buying activity outpaces put buying, suggesting investors are betting on continued upside potential.

Wheel contextBullish option flow is evident despite recent dips. Investors are positioning for potential upside driven by Cybercab deployments and FSD progress.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious speculative long on current bounce given positive news flow, but high uncertainty from volatility, regulatory risks, and valuation; wait for confirmation above $370 or buy modest dip. Not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Highly uncertain. Upside possible toward $390-450 if robotaxi deployments, FSD expansions, and Optimus scaling exceed expectations and Q3 earnings (late Oct) show stabilization. Downside risks include continued EV sales weakness, NHTSA/regulatory delays, high CapEx pressuring cash flow, and potential disappointment on unproven AI/robotics timelines. Stock remains extremely volatile with wide analyst range ($25-$600); execution on autonomy will be the key swing factor.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautiously recovering. Bullish options flow with heavy call buying outpacing puts; excitement over Cybercab/Optimus updates and FSD progress. Some traders note recovering narrative from recent lows but advise against chasing due to high valuation and execution risks; overall retail sentiment not euphoric.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$350.30
50D SMA$357.72
200D SMA$399.39
9D EMA$359.51
21D EMA$353.17
20D MVWAP$352.49
YTD VWAP$394.16
Daily reference VWAP$364.72
Price vs 20D SMA5.10%
Price vs 50D SMA2.92%
Price vs 200D SMA-7.82%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)58.09
RSI (14)55.71
RSI (21)53.14
Stochastic K65.35
Stochastic D68.67
MACD line4.42
MACD histogram1.47
ADX (14)23.09
MACD acceleration0.72
RSI velocity0.75
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.59
ATR (14) %4.16%
Bollinger upper$375.14
Bollinger middle$350.30
Bollinger lower$325.46
Bollinger position0.86%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility52.09%
Observed range position55.00%
5D true high$384.04
5D true low$349.92
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume38.20M
20D average volume29.18M
Volume vs 20D average1.31x
20D SMA velocity1.99
50D SMA velocity-0.21
Institutional flow2.26
ATR velocity0.59
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$367.09
DateSep 8, 2026
Volume38.20M
Vwap D$364.72
Mvwap 20$352.49
Change13.01
Change Percentage3.67%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$350.30
Sma 50$357.72
Sma 200$399.39
Ema 9$359.51
Ema 21$353.17
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 758.09
Rsi 1455.71
Rsi 2153.14
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K65.35
Stoch D68.67
Macd Line4.42
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist1.47
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr15.31
Atr Pct4.16%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv40.93
Iv Rank23.61
Iv Percentile13.55%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper375.1
Bb Middle350.3
Bb Lower325.5
Bb Pctb0.86
True High$370.00
True Low$354.08
True High 5d$384.04
True Low 5d$349.92
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$1.99
Sma50$-0.21
Mvwap20$2.26
Macd0.72
Rsi0.75
Volume4.03M
Atr0.59
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
100
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
53
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
61
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
38
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
34

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSLA Option Market Prices in Optimism Despite Recent Volatility

The TSLA option market displays a bullish sentiment despite recent volatility. Implied volatility is elevated, reflecting uncertainty surrounding upcoming earnings and regulatory developments. However, strong call buying activity outpaces put buying, suggesting investors are betting on continued upside potential.

Front ATM IV45.46%
Current IV41.76%
IV Rank26.37
IV Percentile19.12%
25Δ skew-1.08
Term slope-4.86
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.87%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
45.5%38.8%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-091.0045.46%—
2026-09-146.0038.82%—
2026-09-2315.0040.60%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$360.00
Long strike$357.50
Net credit / share$0.56
Credit / width22.40%
$56$-194$356.13$361.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$372.50
Long strike$375.00
Net credit / share$0.41
Credit / width16.40%
$41$-209$371.13$376.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Strong call buying activity exceeding put buying indicates bullish sentiment.
  • The term structure of implied volatility shows a backwardation pattern, with near-term options more expensive than longer-term options, suggesting expectations for price movement in the near future.
Risk context
  • High valuation and execution risks remain, particularly regarding robotaxi deployment and Optimus scaling.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score53.20

Bullish option flow is evident despite recent dips. Investors are positioning for potential upside driven by Cybercab deployments and FSD progress.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$14.06B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.01%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.87%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score37.80
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSLA Covered Call signal

Sep 8, 2026 9:33 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-09 | short $360.00 | $4.95 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Tesla Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.45T
P/E (TTM)367.4×
Beta1.75
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
52-week return0.92%
Shares outstanding3.95B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity4.57%
Operating margin4.22%
Net margin3.67%
Debt / equity0.10×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)5.19%
EPS growth (3Y)-33.28%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)18.16%
Revenue / share (TTM)29.27
Book value / share23.13

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJun 29, 2010
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identityf6ec9295fe7c311d9073a14f

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy