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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Tesla Inc / TSLA

StockConsumer DiscretionaryAutomobiles
JW Rank52.1/ 100
Official close$348.12-6.69 (-1.89%)
Bid$348.26
Ask$348.50
Previous close$354.81
ATR (14)3.74%
RSI (14)50.9
Volume23.41M
Model reference$340.00
Upside scenario$365.00
Risk reference$328.00
Decision summary

TSLA Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amidst Recent Volatility

BalancedHigh confidence

The TSLA option market displays a mixed sentiment, reflecting recent price fluctuations and uncertainty surrounding upcoming catalysts. While bullishness persists due to positive news regarding Robotaxi expansion and Nvidia AI tailwinds, bearish pressures remain from the stock's recent pullback and concerns about execution risks.

Wheel contextThe market appears to be pricing in both potential upside and downside risks for TSLA. Recent news flow has been mixed, with both positive developments (Robotaxi) and negative factors (stock decline).
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Neutral/cautious; high uncertainty from today's drop, mixed technicals, and execution risks. Wait for hold above 345 or 50DMA break for confirmation. Robotaxi momentum vs valuation/margin pressure.

Three-month outlook

Highly uncertain. Upside to $380-420 possible if Cybercab/robotaxi scales, FSD adoption grows, and Optimus milestones hit, aided by AI tailwinds. Downside to $300 if autonomy delays persist, margins compress further, capex burns cash without returns, or EV demand weakens. Valuation remains stretched; execution on robotaxi/Optimus and China/competition risks dominate. Mixed catalysts vs fundamentals.

Market sentiment context

Mixed and cautiously improving. Robotaxi news lifted some scores (from -2 to +6/10); institutional tone shifting. Short-term charts still bearish with inverse H&S potential noted. Long-term optimism on FSD/Optimus/robotaxi catalysts vs valuation/execution skepticism. Retail dip-buying; overall cautious with catalyst-driven pockets of bullishness.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$338.82
50D SMA$360.47
200D SMA$400.93
9D EMA$347.92
21D EMA$345.27
20D MVWAP$339.80
YTD VWAP$395.26
Daily reference VWAP$350.92
Price vs 20D SMA2.93%
Price vs 50D SMA-3.25%
Price vs 200D SMA-13.01%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)53.17
RSI (14)50.89
RSI (21)48.68
Stochastic K61.87
Stochastic D63.20
MACD line-0.25
MACD histogram-3.83
ADX (14)19.74
MACD acceleration0.50
RSI velocity-0.34
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.15
ATR (14) %3.74%
Bollinger upper$363.26
Bollinger middle$338.82
Bollinger lower$314.38
Bollinger position0.70%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility38.23%
Observed range position39.71%
5D true high$363.14
5D true low$342.53
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume23.41M
20D average volume24.37M
Volume vs 20D average0.96x
20D SMA velocity2.18
50D SMA velocity-1.09
Institutional flow2.29
ATR velocity-0.15
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$348.12
DateAug 28, 2026
Volume23.41M
Vwap D$350.92
Mvwap 20$339.80
Change-6.69
Change Percentage 1.89%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bear
Sma 20$338.82
Sma 50$360.47
Sma 200$400.93
Ema 9$347.92
Ema 21$345.27
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 753.17
Rsi 1450.89
Rsi 2148.68
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K61.87
Stoch D63.20
Macd Line-0.25
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-3.83
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr13.05
Atr Pct3.74%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv36.01
Iv Rank7.31
Iv Percentile0.40%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper363.3
Bb Middle338.8
Bb Lower314.4
Bb Pctb0.70
True High$358.80
True Low$345.20
True High 5d$363.14
True Low 5d$342.53
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$2.18
Sma50$-1.09
Mvwap20$2.29
Macd0.50
Rsi-0.34
Volume34,278
Atr-0.15
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
100
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
41
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
38
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
31

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSLA Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Amidst Recent Volatility

The TSLA option market displays a mixed sentiment, reflecting recent price fluctuations and uncertainty surrounding upcoming catalysts. While bullishness persists due to positive news regarding Robotaxi expansion and Nvidia AI tailwinds, bearish pressures remain from the stock's recent pullback and concerns about execution risks.

Front ATM IV26.53%
Current IV35.89%
IV Rank6.91
IV Percentile0.40%
25Δ skew0.41
Term slope11.31
Term structureContango
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.61%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
37.8%26.5%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-08-313.0026.53%—
2026-09-0912.0034.96%—
2026-09-1821.0037.84%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$340.00
Long strike$337.50
Net credit / share$0.41
Credit / width16.20%
$41$-209$336.13$341.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$352.50
Long strike$355.00
Net credit / share$0.47
Credit / width18.80%
$47$-203$351.13$356.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 35.89%, suggesting market participants anticipate significant price swings in the near term.
  • The term structure shows a contango pattern with increasing implied volatility as expiration dates approach, indicating potential for further upside risk.
  • Bullish sentiment is supported by positive news regarding Robotaxi expansion and Nvidia AI results, but bearish pressures persist from recent stock pullback and concerns about execution risks.
Risk context
  • Valuation remains stretched, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
  • Execution risks related to autonomous driving technology and production ramp-up remain a key concern.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score66.40

The market appears to be pricing in both potential upside and downside risks for TSLA. Recent news flow has been mixed, with both positive developments (Robotaxi) and negative factors (stock decline).

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$8.16B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.07%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.61%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score37.80
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSLA Covered Call signal

Aug 28, 2026 9:30 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-08-31 | short $355.00 | $4.78 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Tesla Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.37T
P/E (TTM)352.8×
Beta1.90
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
52-week return1.49%
Shares outstanding3.95B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity4.57%
Operating margin4.22%
Net margin3.67%
Debt / equity0.10×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)5.19%
EPS growth (3Y)-33.28%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)18.16%
Revenue / share (TTM)29.27
Book value / share23.13

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJun 29, 2010
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity3f4962cc9b9eef94c2d23154

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy