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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Tesla Inc / TSLA

StockConsumer DiscretionaryAutomobiles
JW Rank55.5/ 100
Official close$359.33-6.11 (-1.67%)
Bid$359.33
Ask$359.42
Previous close$365.44
ATR (14)3.86%
RSI (14)51.5
Volume23.33M
Model reference$358.00
Upside scenario$380.00
Risk reference$348.00
Decision summary

TSLA Option Market Implies Mixed Sentiment

BalancedHigh confidence

The TSLA option market presents a mixed outlook, reflecting both bullish and bearish sentiment. While implied volatility is elevated, suggesting potential for significant price swings, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term upside. The skew is balanced, with no strong directional bias. However, recent news regarding Musk's comments on AI development and mixed reception to the Cybercab launch have introduced uncertainty.

Wheel contextThe reference spreads suggest potential for both bullish and bearish strategies. Bullish investors may consider a bull put spread, while bearish investors may favor a bear call spread.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Neutral

Short-term scenario

Cautious hold/buy-the-dip into Oct 1 Roadster event; elevated uncertainty from today's AI-comment selloff, stretched multiples and mixed technicals.

Three-month outlook

Neutral-to-modestly-bullish with very high uncertainty. Street PT cluster near $390 implies limited ~7% upside. Possible positives: Roadster, robotaxi scaling, Oct 21 earnings. Major risks: autonomy/Optimus execution delays, further margin compression, competition and valuation compression. Realistic 3-month range $320-420; outcomes highly binary on AI/autonomy newsflow.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautiously constructive among retail. Bulls cite Oct 1 Roadster catalyst, Semi Europe plans, robotaxi fleet reaching 1,000 vehicles and US market-share rebound. Bears emphasize 300+ P/E, easy shorting history, hype vs. Uber/Waymo reality and valuation risk. Sentiment trackers recently improved from 4/10 toward 6-7/10. Overall divided with event-driven optimism offset by valuation skepticism.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$355.97
50D SMA$353.81
200D SMA$398.63
9D EMA$361.72
21D EMA$356.49
20D MVWAP$357.22
YTD VWAP$393.77
Daily reference VWAP$361.25
Price vs 20D SMA0.84%
Price vs 50D SMA1.46%
Price vs 200D SMA-9.95%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)49.22
RSI (14)51.50
RSI (21)50.52
Stochastic K48.49
Stochastic D55.24
MACD line4.56
MACD histogram3.46
ADX (14)22.46
MACD acceleration-0.13
RSI velocity-1.35
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.34
ATR (14) %3.86%
Bollinger upper$376.89
Bollinger middle$355.97
Bollinger lower$335.04
Bollinger position0.57%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility51.07%
Observed range position47.76%
5D true high$375.44
5D true low$354.08
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume23.33M
20D average volume28.95M
Volume vs 20D average0.81x
20D SMA velocity1.30
50D SMA velocity-1.01
Institutional flow1.15
ATR velocity-0.34
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$359.33
DateSep 14, 2026
Volume23.33M
Vwap D$361.25
Mvwap 20$357.22
Change-6.11
Change Percentage 1.67%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$355.97
Sma 50$353.81
Sma 200$398.63
Ema 9$361.72
Ema 21$356.49
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 749.22
Rsi 1451.50
Rsi 2150.52
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K48.49
Stoch D55.24
Macd Line4.56
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist3.46
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr13.87
Atr Pct3.86%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv39.33
Iv Rank18.33
Iv Percentile8.37%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper376.9
Bb Middle356.0
Bb Lower335.0
Bb Pctb0.57
True High$367.73
True Low$357.04
True High 5d$375.44
True Low 5d$354.08
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$1.30
Sma50$-1.01
Mvwap20$1.15
Macd-0.13
Rsi-1.35
Volume-524,494
Atr-0.34
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 21, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
98
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
53
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
38
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
29

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSLA Option Market Implies Mixed Sentiment

The TSLA option market presents a mixed outlook, reflecting both bullish and bearish sentiment. While implied volatility is elevated, suggesting potential for significant price swings, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term upside. The skew is balanced, with no strong directional bias. However, recent news regarding Musk's comments on AI development and mixed reception to the Cybercab launch have introduced uncertainty.

Front ATM IV44.76%
Current IV39.72%
IV Rank19.60
IV Percentile9.96%
25Δ skew-1.51
Term slope-3.97
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.80%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
44.8%38.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-162.0044.76%—
2026-09-217.0038.06%—
2026-10-0218.0040.79%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$352.50
Long strike$350.00
Net credit / share$0.51
Credit / width20.40%
$51$-199$348.63$353.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$370.00
Long strike$372.50
Net credit / share$0.48
Credit / width19.20%
$48$-202$368.63$373.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is 39.72%, suggesting potential for significant price swings.
  • The term structure shows a slight backwardation, with near-term options slightly more expensive than longer-term options.
  • The delta 25 skew is balanced, indicating no strong directional bias.
Risk context
  • Recent news regarding Musk's comments on AI development and mixed reception to the Cybercab launch introduce uncertainty.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score66.10

The reference spreads suggest potential for both bullish and bearish strategies. Bullish investors may consider a bull put spread, while bearish investors may favor a bear call spread.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$8.38B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.04%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread2.80%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score37.80
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSLA Covered Call signal

Sep 14, 2026 9:36 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-16 | short $362.50 | $6.30 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Tesla Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.44T
P/E (TTM)379.2×
Beta1.75
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
52-week return-0.91%
Shares outstanding3.95B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity4.57%
Operating margin4.22%
Net margin3.67%
Debt / equity0.10×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)5.19%
EPS growth (3Y)-33.28%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)18.16%
Revenue / share (TTM)29.27
Book value / share23.13

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJun 29, 2010
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity4a30e5fdaca4b6a5493c2133

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy