Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

NVIDIA Corp / NVDA

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank70.6/ 100
Official close$217.00-3.78 (-1.71%)
Bid$217.00
Ask$217.12
Previous close$220.78
ATR (14)3.37%
RSI (14)51.9
Volume61.49M
Model reference$215.00
Upside scenario$230.00
Risk reference$208.00
Decision summary

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong Growth Expectations

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The NVDA option market reflects bullish sentiment driven by strong recent earnings, positive guidance for future growth, and continued demand for AI chips. The term structure is backwardated, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated ones, suggesting expectations of further price appreciation. Implied volatility is elevated but has moderated since the recent earnings beat.

Wheel contextThe market anticipates further upside in NVDA driven by strong AI demand and positive company guidance.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious buy-the-dip for 1-3 weeks given the strong Q2 beat, guidance, and technical support, but with high uncertainty from macro conditions, memory costs, China, and post-earnings volatility. Not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Moderately bullish with high uncertainty. The 70% FY2028 growth guide and comments that AI has reached an inflection point support continued hyperscaler demand, which could push the stock toward $250-280. Analyst targets average around $326 on a longer horizon. Key risks include potential slowdown in AI capex, custom ASIC competition, supply constraints, China export issues, valuation, and broader market swings. Possible range $190-280 depending on execution and sentiment.


Market sentiment context

Sentiment on X leans cautiously positive after the earnings beat and FY2028 guidance, with some accounts citing sentiment scores of 6-7/10 and noting a green post-earnings reaction unlike prior quarters. Traders highlight ongoing AI demand. However, searches are heavily mixed with promotional spam and a few posts flagging limited buying pressure on higher timeframes. Overall bias remains constructive on NVIDIA’s AI position.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$219.03
50D SMA$208.80
200D SMA$196.08
9D EMA$217.85
21D EMA$216.10
20D MVWAP$219.98
YTD VWAP$197.05
Daily reference VWAP$217.65
Price vs 20D SMA-0.73%
Price vs 50D SMA4.14%
Price vs 200D SMA10.89%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)50.05
RSI (14)51.87
RSI (21)52.34
Stochastic K48.35
Stochastic D53.29
MACD line2.29
MACD histogram2.67
ADX (14)15.63
MACD acceleration-0.06
RSI velocity-3.15
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.02
ATR (14) %3.37%
Bollinger upper$229.45
Bollinger middle$219.03
Bollinger lower$208.61
Bollinger position0.42%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility45.20%
Observed range position72.24%
5D true high$230.47
5D true low$209.23
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume61.49M
20D average volume72.15M
Volume vs 20D average0.85x
20D SMA velocity0.61
50D SMA velocity0.21
Institutional flow0.79
ATR velocity0.02
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$217.00
DateSep 1, 2026
Volume61.49M
Vwap D$217.65
Mvwap 20$219.98
Change-3.78
Change Percentage 1.71%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$219.03
Sma 50$208.80
Sma 200$196.08
Ema 9$217.85
Ema 21$216.10
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 750.05
Rsi 1451.87
Rsi 2152.34
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K48.35
Stoch D53.29
Macd Line2.29
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist2.67
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr7.34
Atr Pct3.37%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv31.46
Iv Rank2.67
Iv Percentile0.40%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper229.5
Bb Middle219.0
Bb Lower208.6
Bb Pctb0.42
True High$220.78
True Low$215.10
True High 5d$230.47
True Low 5d$209.23
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.61
Sma50$0.21
Mvwap20$0.79
Macd-0.06
Rsi-3.15
Volume-37.16M
Atr0.02
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 17, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
68
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
79
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
100
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
29

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong Growth Expectations

The NVDA option market reflects bullish sentiment driven by strong recent earnings, positive guidance for future growth, and continued demand for AI chips. The term structure is backwardated, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated ones, suggesting expectations of further price appreciation. Implied volatility is elevated but has moderated since the recent earnings beat.

Front ATM IV35.24%
Current IV30.95%
IV Rank0.51
IV Percentile0.40%
25Δ skew2.70
Term slope-4.10
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.66%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
35.2%29.8%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-021.0035.24%
2026-09-098.0029.81%
2026-09-1615.0031.14%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$212.50
Long strike$210.00
Net credit / share$0.25
Credit / width10.00%
$25$-225$208.63$213.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$220.00
Long strike$222.50
Net credit / share$0.27
Credit / width10.80%
$27$-223$218.63$223.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • The stock rallied 7-10% following the Q2 earnings beat and raised FY2028 revenue growth outlook to ~70%.
  • Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy with an average target price of ~$326 (~50% upside).
  • The term structure is backwardated, indicating expectations for continued price appreciation.
  • Implied volatility has moderated since the earnings beat but remains elevated.
Risk context
  • Macroeconomic conditions, memory costs, China export issues, and valuation remain risks to the bullish outlook.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score68.40

The market anticipates further upside in NVDA driven by strong AI demand and positive company guidance.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$13.37B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.02%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.66%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score99.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

NVDA Covered Call signal

Sep 1, 2026 9:58 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-02 | short $217.50 | $1.51 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

NVIDIA Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$5.20T
P/E (TTM)34.0×
Beta2.25
52-week range$164.07 – $236.54
52-week return26.75%
Shares outstanding24.20B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity111.66%
Operating margin64.02%
Net margin62.97%
Debt / equity0.05×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)100.05%
EPS growth (3Y)204.08%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)83.13%
Revenue / share (TTM)10.39
Book value / share8.07

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.03%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1999-01-22
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity152d148d4fb07994e57c3852

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy