Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

NVIDIA Corp / NVDA

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank73.2/ 100
Official close$226.67-1.31 (-0.57%)
Bid$226.61
Ask$226.70
Previous close$227.98
ATR (14)3.19%
RSI (14)61.3
Volume183.69M
Model reference$220.00
Upside scenario$245.00
Risk reference$210.00
Decision summary

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong Bullish Sentiment

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The NVDA option market reflects strong bullish sentiment driven by blowout Q2 earnings, a robust outlook for AI demand, and positive analyst commentary. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure is backwardated, suggesting traders expect continued upside momentum.

Wheel contextThe market anticipates continued upside momentum for NVDA driven by strong earnings and AI demand.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Buy on pullback (high uncertainty after gap-up; wait for hold above $220 rather than chase). 1-3 week bias bullish continuation if support holds, but volatility likely.

Three-month outlook

Constructive with potential 10-20% upside toward $250-275 as AI infrastructure spend continues and next earnings (late Nov) approach, supported by raised analyst targets. High uncertainty from persistent supply bottlenecks (memory), custom-chip competition, China restrictions, elevated valuation, and macro factors (inflation/Fed). Not a low-risk setup; position sizing and stops essential.


Market sentiment context

Predominantly bullish post-earnings with confirmation of accelerating AI demand and 70% FY28 guidance; traders highlighting the beat/raise and chip rally. Some caution against chasing the 8-10% move, preferring pullbacks to $216-220. Sentiment scores 6-9/10 positive and 'cleanest in tech'. Mixed notes on valuation, memory shortages through 2028, and shorts covering (inverse ETF down 17%).

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$217.21
50D SMA$208.16
200D SMA$195.73
9D EMA$217.17
21D EMA$215.28
20D MVWAP$217.67
YTD VWAP$196.71
Daily reference VWAP$226.45
Price vs 20D SMA4.96%
Price vs 50D SMA9.52%
Price vs 200D SMA16.48%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)66.93
RSI (14)61.32
RSI (21)58.79
Stochastic K42.39
Stochastic D25.82
MACD line2.48
MACD histogram2.96
ADX (14)17.29
MACD acceleration-0.06
RSI velocity5.56
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.30
ATR (14) %3.19%
Bollinger upper$231.57
Bollinger middle$217.21
Bollinger lower$202.85
Bollinger position0.88%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility42.92%
Observed range position100.00%
5D true high$230.47
5D true low$207.47
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume183.69M
20D average volume71.01M
Volume vs 20D average2.59x
20D SMA velocity1.14
50D SMA velocity0.17
Institutional flow1.51
ATR velocity0.30
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$226.67
DateAug 27, 2026
Volume172.97M
Vwap D$226.45
Mvwap 20$217.60
Change-1.31
Change Percentage 0.57%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$217.21
Sma 50$208.16
Sma 200$195.73
Ema 9$217.17
Ema 21$215.28
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 766.93
Rsi 1461.32
Rsi 2158.79
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K42.39
Stoch D25.82
Macd Line2.48
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist2.96
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr7.28
Atr Pct3.19%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv33.21
Iv Rank7.01
Iv Percentile4.38%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper231.6
Bb Middle217.2
Bb Lower202.9
Bb Pctb0.88
True High$230.47
True Low$209.66
True High 5d$230.47
True Low 5d$207.47
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$1.14
Sma50$0.17
Mvwap20$1.51
Macd-0.06
Rsi5.56
Volume34.95M
Atr0.30
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 17, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
66
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
91
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
100
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
31

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong Bullish Sentiment

The NVDA option market reflects strong bullish sentiment driven by blowout Q2 earnings, a robust outlook for AI demand, and positive analyst commentary. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure is backwardated, suggesting traders expect continued upside momentum.

Front ATM IV46.19%
Current IV32.83%
IV Rank5.36
IV Percentile3.59%
25Δ skew0.77
Term slope-12.70
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.21%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
46.2%33.5%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-08-281.0046.19%
2026-09-026.0035.51%
2026-09-1115.0033.49%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$222.50
Long strike$220.00
Net credit / share$0.43
Credit / width17.00%
$43$-207$218.63$223.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$230.00
Long strike$232.50
Net credit / share$0.45
Credit / width18.00%
$45$-205$228.63$233.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is 32.83%, reflecting heightened market expectations.
  • The term structure of implied volatility is backwardated, with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, indicating a belief in further price appreciation.
  • Strong buying interest is evident in call options, particularly at the front end of the curve.
  • Reference spreads like Bull Put Spreads and Bear Call Spreads are priced with bullish bias.
Risk context
  • Elevated valuation may pose a risk if growth expectations are not met.
  • Supply chain constraints, particularly in memory chips, could impact future performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score65.50

The market anticipates continued upside momentum for NVDA driven by strong earnings and AI demand.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$41.88B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.02%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.21%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score99.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

NVDA Covered Call signal

Aug 27, 2026 9:50 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-08-28 | short $222.50 | $3.13 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

NVIDIA Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$5.46T
P/E (TTM)34.0×
Beta2.24
52-week range$164.07 – $236.54
52-week return15.34%
Shares outstanding24.20B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity111.66%
Operating margin64.02%
Net margin62.97%
Debt / equity0.05×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)100.05%
EPS growth (3Y)204.08%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)83.13%
Revenue / share (TTM)10.39
Book value / share8.07

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.03%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1999-01-22
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identitya4b64e2a62dc9064957363ad

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy