Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

NVIDIA Corp / NVDA

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank74.2/ 100
Official close$225.44+8.00 (+3.68%)
Bid$225.45
Ask$225.55
Previous close$217.44
ATR (14)3.37%
RSI (14)56.7
Volume104.57M
Model reference$220.00
Upside scenario$235.00
Risk reference$210.00
Decision summary

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong AI Demand and Growth

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The NVDA option market reflects strong bullish sentiment driven by recent blowout earnings, accelerating AI demand, and positive partnerships. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure is backwardated, suggesting a belief that near-term volatility will subside. Bullish call spreads are favored over bearish put spreads.

Wheel contextThe option market is pricing in continued growth driven by AI demand, but also acknowledges potential volatility due to memory cost concerns and broader market uncertainty.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious momentum buy or add on minor pullback given post-earnings strength and AI catalysts, but high uncertainty from recent rally, possible profit-taking, memory cost concerns, and broader market. Tight risk management essential over 1-3 weeks.

Three-month outlook

Constructively bullish on sustained AI capex (hyperscalers, sovereign, enterprise), 70% FY2028 revenue growth guidance, and partnerships, potentially supporting 10-20% upside if execution holds. Significant uncertainty remains around customer in-house chips, China restrictions, margin pressure from memory, valuation sustainability, and possible AI spend slowdown or market rotation. Analyst 12-month targets imply further gains but near-term volatility is likely; outcomes highly dependent on upcoming quarters and macro conditions.


Market sentiment context

Predominantly bullish with posts celebrating today's 3%+ gain, DCF fair value mentions, and long-term AI infrastructure conviction post-earnings. Some traders note consolidation, potential pullbacks to 190-218, and mixed short-term signals. High engagement on buying dips, tokenized stock memes, and G20/AI themes; overall positive momentum but caution on near-term volatility.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$219.29
50D SMA$209.28
200D SMA$196.27
9D EMA$219.16
21D EMA$216.86
20D MVWAP$220.29
YTD VWAP$197.22
Daily reference VWAP$223.61
Price vs 20D SMA2.33%
Price vs 50D SMA7.23%
Price vs 200D SMA14.34%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)58.82
RSI (14)56.67
RSI (21)55.69
Stochastic K58.29
Stochastic D56.75
MACD line2.67
MACD histogram2.67
ADX (14)16.00
MACD acceleration0.11
RSI velocity1.44
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.03
ATR (14) %3.37%
Bollinger upper$229.99
Bollinger middle$219.29
Bollinger lower$208.59
Bollinger position0.74%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility44.99%
Observed range position90.60%
5D true high$230.47
5D true low$209.66
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume104.57M
20D average volume72.49M
Volume vs 20D average1.44x
20D SMA velocity0.41
50D SMA velocity0.29
Institutional flow0.48
ATR velocity-0.03
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$225.44
DateSep 2, 2026
Volume104.57M
Vwap D$223.61
Mvwap 20$220.29
Change8.00
Change Percentage3.68%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$219.29
Sma 50$209.28
Sma 200$196.27
Ema 9$219.16
Ema 21$216.86
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 758.82
Rsi 1456.67
Rsi 2155.69
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K58.29
Stoch D56.75
Macd Line2.67
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist2.67
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr7.56
Atr Pct3.37%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv32.50
Iv Rank7.09
Iv Percentile3.17%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper230.0
Bb Middle219.3
Bb Lower208.6
Bb Pctb0.74
True High$227.95
True Low$217.44
True High 5d$230.47
True Low 5d$209.66
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.41
Sma50$0.29
Mvwap20$0.48
Macd0.11
Rsi1.44
Volume-7.30M
Atr-0.03
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 17, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
67
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
91
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
100
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
29

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

NVDA Option Market Prices in Strong AI Demand and Growth

The NVDA option market reflects strong bullish sentiment driven by recent blowout earnings, accelerating AI demand, and positive partnerships. Implied volatility is elevated but term structure is backwardated, suggesting a belief that near-term volatility will subside. Bullish call spreads are favored over bearish put spreads.

Front ATM IV36.75%
Current IV32.69%
IV Rank7.89
IV Percentile3.57%
25Δ skew1.06
Term slope-4.16
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread1.74%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
36.8%29.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-042.0036.75%
2026-09-097.0029.66%
2026-09-1816.0032.59%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$220.00
Long strike$217.50
Net credit / share$0.37
Credit / width14.80%
$37$-213$216.13$221.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$230.00
Long strike$232.50
Net credit / share$0.37
Credit / width14.80%
$37$-213$228.63$233.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 32.69% but the term structure is backwardated with shorter dated options more expensive than longer dated options.
  • The market favors bullish strategies, as evidenced by the popularity of bull call spreads and the higher bid prices for calls compared to puts.
  • Recent earnings exceeded expectations, driving strong investor confidence and a 3.24% price increase on the day.
Risk context
  • Memory costs could pressure future margins and impact earnings growth.
  • Broader market uncertainty and potential profit-taking could lead to near-term pullbacks.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score66.60

The option market is pricing in continued growth driven by AI demand, but also acknowledges potential volatility due to memory cost concerns and broader market uncertainty.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$23.47B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.03%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread1.74%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score99.70
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

NVDA Covered Call signal

Sep 2, 2026 9:36 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-04 | short $220.00 | $2.58 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

NVIDIA Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$5.24T
P/E (TTM)34.0×
Beta2.22
52-week range$164.07 – $236.54
52-week return27.32%
Shares outstanding24.20B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity111.66%
Operating margin64.02%
Net margin62.97%
Debt / equity0.05×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)100.05%
EPS growth (3Y)204.08%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)83.13%
Revenue / share (TTM)10.39
Book value / share8.07

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.03%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1999-01-22
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity56a6db837c8b3f009f8bca21

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy