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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd / TSM

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank64.2/ 100
Official close$416.00-2.01 (-0.48%)
Bid$415.70
Ask$416.10
Previous close$418.01
ATR (14)2.77%
RSI (14)45.5
Volume5.52M
Model reference$410.00
Upside scenario$435.00
Risk reference$395.00
Decision summary

TSM Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

BalancedHigh confidence

The TSM option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price declines. While near-term volatility is elevated, implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting expectations for continued price movement. The term structure shows backwardation, indicating a preference for shorter-dated options, which could reflect anticipation of upcoming earnings and potential catalysts.

Wheel contextTSM's recent pullback from highs near $430-440 has created an opportunity for bullish option strategies.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious opportunistic buy on dip for potential 1-3 week bounce, supported by oversold RSI and strong AI fundamentals, but high uncertainty from mixed technicals, recent selling, and market volatility. Not a high-conviction short-term trade.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but with significant uncertainty: AI demand and capacity expansion (including 2nm ramp) should support Q3 earnings (mid-Oct) and potential retest of $450-480, with analyst targets implying 25-35% upside over 12 months. However, risks include Taiwan geopolitics, possible multiple compression if rates stay high or AI spending slows, earnings miss, or broader tech correction. High volatility expected; position sizing and monitoring of geopolitics/earnings critical. Not guaranteed; could range $380-500 depending on catalysts.

Market sentiment context

Recent X posts mixed with heavy spam; relevant investor commentary bullish on AI bottleneck status, 53% revenue surge, and long-term growth (e.g., positions initiated near $432, 31x earnings viewed as reasonable given margins and demand). Some caution on geopolitics, valuation, and Taiwan risk. Overall constructive among active traders but not euphoric amid the pullback.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$420.43
50D SMA$417.85
200D SMA$377.26
9D EMA$423.29
21D EMA$421.94
20D MVWAP$421.15
YTD VWAP$384.77
Daily reference VWAP$416.08
Price vs 20D SMA-1.59%
Price vs 50D SMA-0.98%
Price vs 200D SMA9.67%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)38.59
RSI (14)45.53
RSI (21)47.59
Stochastic K38.67
Stochastic D53.51
MACD line1.61
MACD histogram1.94
ADX (14)9.17
MACD acceleration-0.51
RSI velocity-2.85
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.01
ATR (14) %2.77%
Bollinger upper$437.19
Bollinger middle$420.43
Bollinger lower$403.67
Bollinger position0.30%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility30.25%
Observed range position37.98%
5D true high$439.40
5D true low$412.55
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume5.52M
20D average volume5.74M
Volume vs 20D average0.96x
20D SMA velocity-0.38
50D SMA velocity-0.43
Institutional flow-0.39
ATR velocity-0.01
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$416.00
DateSep 15, 2026
Volume5.52M
Vwap D$416.08
Mvwap 20$421.15
Change-2.01
Change Percentage 0.48%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$420.43
Sma 50$417.85
Sma 200$377.26
Ema 9$423.29
Ema 21$421.94
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 738.59
Rsi 1445.53
Rsi 2147.59
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K38.67
Stoch D53.51
Macd Line1.61
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist1.94
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr11.46
Atr Pct2.77%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv32.50
Iv Rank9.15
Iv Percentile5.18%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper437.2
Bb Middle420.4
Bb Lower403.7
Bb Pctb0.30
True High$421.94
True Low$412.55
True High 5d$439.40
True Low 5d$412.55
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.38
Sma50$-0.43
Mvwap20$-0.39
Macd-0.51
Rsi-2.85
Volume201,887
Atr-0.01
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 15, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
95
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
69
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
60
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
93
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
37

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSM Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential Despite Recent Pullback

The TSM option market displays a bullish outlook despite recent price declines. While near-term volatility is elevated, implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting expectations for continued price movement. The term structure shows backwardation, indicating a preference for shorter-dated options, which could reflect anticipation of upcoming earnings and potential catalysts.

Front ATM IV35.81%
Current IV32.30%
IV Rank8.36
IV Percentile4.78%
25Δ skew1.09
Term slope-5.04
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread4.22%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
35.8%30.8%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-183.0035.81%—
2026-09-2510.0030.92%—
2026-10-0217.0030.77%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$405.00
Long strike$402.50
Net credit / share$0.53
Credit / width21.20%
$53$-197$401.13$406.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$422.50
Long strike$425.00
Net credit / share$0.58
Credit / width23.20%
$58$-192$421.13$426.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility (IV) stands at 32.3%, ranking in the top decile historically.
  • The term structure exhibits backwardation, with near-term IV exceeding longer-term IV.
  • Skew is balanced, suggesting a relatively symmetrical view of potential price movement.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical risks related to Taiwan could negatively impact TSM's share price.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score68.50

TSM's recent pullback from highs near $430-440 has created an opportunity for bullish option strategies.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$2.28B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.22%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread4.22%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score93.10
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSM Covered Call signal

Sep 15, 2026 9:43 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $417.50 | $4.98 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$62.50T
P/E (TTM)27.6×
Beta0.98
52-week range$1,180.00 – $2,535.00
52-week return17.52%
Shares outstanding25.93B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity39.86%
Operating margin56.38%
Net margin50.70%
Debt / equity0.20×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)18.94%
EPS growth (3Y)19.11%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)26.54%
Revenue / share (TTM)172.3
Book value / share248.0

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.99%

Trading and reference facts

MarketTaiwan Stock Exchange
CountryTw
CurrencyTwd
IPO date1994-09-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity7423f53b0340609493ff9f44

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy