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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd / TSM

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank68.8/ 100
Official close$438.80+9.89 (+2.31%)
Bid$438.70
Ask$438.80
Previous close$428.91
ATR (14)2.69%
RSI (14)61.7
Volume8.91M
Model reference$435.00
Upside scenario$465.00
Risk reference$420.00
Decision summary

TSM Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential

ConstructiveHigh confidence

The TSM option market exhibits a bullish sentiment, driven by strong technical indicators, positive news flow surrounding AI demand and TSMC's expansion plans, and elevated implied volatility. The term structure is in backwardation, suggesting traders anticipate further price appreciation.

Wheel contextTSM's recent breakout above $436 suggests potential for further upside towards $479. However, traders should be mindful of macro risks and valuation concerns.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Bullish momentum continuation likely in 1-3 weeks given technical breakout and AI news flow, but high uncertainty from macro (rates, oil) and recent sharp run-up; consider entry on any dip with defined risk.

Three-month outlook

Constructive on continued AI/HPC demand, 2nm ramp, and capacity additions, supporting further gains toward $500+ and analyst targets. However, significant uncertainty from geopolitical risks (Taiwan/China), potential margin pressure from overseas fabs and new nodes, valuation after 78%+ 1-year rally, and sustainability of hyperscaler capex. Execution on $100B+ U.S. investments remains a key variable.  4  35

Market sentiment context

Predominantly bullish. Traders highlighting breakout and relative strength in semiconductors ($TSM +2%+ while broader market weaker). Key level $436 watched as support; potential toward $479 ATH. Strong association with AI infrastructure demand and $TSM as foundational to the buildout.  44  45  47

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$420.96
50D SMA$420.54
200D SMA$373.64
9D EMA$423.30
21D EMA$420.29
20D MVWAP$421.85
YTD VWAP$384.01
Daily reference VWAP$439.00
Price vs 20D SMA4.29%
Price vs 50D SMA4.39%
Price vs 200D SMA17.49%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)73.97
RSI (14)61.73
RSI (21)57.20
Stochastic K73.87
Stochastic D54.66
MACD line2.17
MACD histogram0.46
ADX (14)8.73
MACD acceleration0.84
RSI velocity4.37
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.08
ATR (14) %2.69%
Bollinger upper$436.59
Bollinger middle$420.96
Bollinger lower$405.34
Bollinger position1.08%
Volatility environmentMedium
20D realized volatility27.13%
Observed range position62.52%
5D true high$444.29
5D true low$407.81
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume8.91M
20D average volume5.66M
Volume vs 20D average1.57x
20D SMA velocity0.47
50D SMA velocity-0.16
Institutional flow0.61
ATR velocity0.08
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$438.80
DateSep 8, 2026
Volume8.91M
Vwap D$439.00
Mvwap 20$421.85
Change9.89
Change Percentage2.31%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$420.96
Sma 50$420.54
Sma 200$373.64
Ema 9$423.30
Ema 21$420.29
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 773.97
Rsi 1461.73
Rsi 2157.20
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K73.87
Stoch D54.66
Macd Line2.17
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist0.46
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr11.80
Atr Pct2.69%
EnvironmentMedium
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv33.47
Iv Rank12.79
Iv Percentile10.36%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper436.6
Bb Middle421.0
Bb Lower405.3
Bb Pctb1.08
True High$444.29
True Low$428.91
True High 5d$444.29
True Low 5d$407.81
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.47
Sma50$-0.16
Mvwap20$0.61
Macd0.84
Rsi4.37
Volume1.62M
Atr0.08
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateOct 15, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskMedium
Structure RiskHigh
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
98
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
56
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
89
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
32
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
93
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
40

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TSM Option Market Implies Continued Upside Potential

The TSM option market exhibits a bullish sentiment, driven by strong technical indicators, positive news flow surrounding AI demand and TSMC's expansion plans, and elevated implied volatility. The term structure is in backwardation, suggesting traders anticipate further price appreciation.

Front ATM IV37.48%
Current IV33.94%
IV Rank14.57
IV Percentile14.74%
25Δ skew-0.56
Term slope-3.73
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread6.06%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
37.5%33.8%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-113.0037.48%—
2026-09-1810.0034.90%—
2026-09-2517.0033.75%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$430.00
Long strike$427.50
Net credit / share$0.46
Credit / width18.60%
$46$-204$426.13$431.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$452.50
Long strike$455.00
Net credit / share$0.47
Credit / width18.80%
$47$-203$451.13$456.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • TSM's price is well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong uptrend.
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 33.94%, reflecting market expectations for continued price movement.
  • The skew is balanced, suggesting both call and put options are relatively priced.
  • News sentiment from xAI analysis is predominantly bullish, citing TSMC's record margins, AI-driven demand, and strong analyst consensus.
Risk context
  • Geopolitical tensions between Taiwan and China could negatively impact TSMC's operations.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score55.60

TSM's recent breakout above $436 suggests potential for further upside towards $479. However, traders should be mindful of macro risks and valuation concerns.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$3.91B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.07%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread6.06%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score93.10
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

TSM Covered Call signal

Sep 8, 2026 9:42 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-11 | short $437.50 | $6.70 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$62.50T
P/E (TTM)27.4×
Beta0.98
52-week range$1,145.00 – $2,535.00
52-week return17.52%
Shares outstanding25.93B

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity39.86%
Operating margin56.38%
Net margin50.70%
Debt / equity0.20×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)18.94%
EPS growth (3Y)19.11%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)26.54%
Revenue / share (TTM)172.3
Book value / share248.0

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield1.99%

Trading and reference facts

MarketTaiwan Stock Exchange
CountryTw
CurrencyTwd
IPO date1994-09-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity8f80c184e3cbbcf833c90f1f

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy