Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Space Exploration Technologies Corp / SPCX

StockCommunication ServicesTelecommunication
JW Rank58.1/ 100
Official close$140.15-0.72 (-0.51%)
Bid$140.56
Ask$140.68
Previous close$140.87
ATR (14)6.24%
RSI (14)60.1
Volume40.96M
Model reference$138.50
Upside scenario$152.00
Risk reference$132.00
Decision summary

SPC Stock Shows Bullish Signs Despite Volatility

BalancedHigh confidence

The market appears bullish on SPCX despite recent volatility. The underlying price is up 0.38% today, and the stock has shown strong momentum with a positive RSI and MACD signal. Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout above resistance at $142-145.

Wheel contextSPCX has a history of strong rallies following positive news events. Recent announcements regarding Starship Flight 14 and AI expansion could be catalysts for further price appreciation.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious hold or buy on dip toward support amid high uncertainty from volatility, pending Starship Flight 14, and lockup/news risks; 1-3 week swing possible if 140 holds but not financial advice.

Three-month outlook

Uncertain but with upside potential to 160-220 if Starship succeeds, AI cloud/Starlink scales toward $100B run-rate, and institutions accumulate; significant downside risk from unprofitability, 80x P/S valuation, execution delays, further share unlocks, and broader market conditions. High volatility expected; analyst averages around $220 but execution and macro risks predominate.


Market sentiment context

Mixed with cautious optimism: bulls cite AI/Starlink/Starship catalysts, institutional buying (e.g. ARK), decreasing short interest, and targets 145-160 short-term plus long-term wealth; bears highlight overvaluation, remaining lockup overhang, possible further flush to $70-130, and ranging 132-150. Sentiment improving on recovery but remains divided on valuation vs. execution.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels10 observations
20D SMA$132.88
50D SMA$138.57
200D SMA$0.00
9D EMA$138.14
21D EMA$135.72
20D MVWAP$130.51
YTD VWAP$146.67
Daily reference VWAP$140.51
Price vs 20D SMA6.01%
Price vs 50D SMA1.66%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)58.77
RSI (14)60.07
RSI (21)68.30
Stochastic K66.39
Stochastic D69.15
MACD line0.88
MACD histogram-0.71
ADX (14)22.27
MACD acceleration0.25
RSI velocity1.01
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.37
ATR (14) %6.24%
Bollinger upper$156.92
Bollinger middle$132.88
Bollinger lower$108.84
Bollinger position0.67%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility100.03%
Observed range position34.86%
5D true high$142.04
5D true low$131.22
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume40.96M
20D average volume79.53M
Volume vs 20D average0.52x
20D SMA velocity1.29
50D SMA velocity-0.91
Institutional flow0.67
ATR velocity-0.37
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$140.15
DateAug 27, 2026
Volume40.83M
Vwap D$140.50
Mvwap 20$130.51
Change-0.72
Change Percentage 0.51%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bull
Sma 20$132.88
Sma 50$138.57
Sma 200$0.00
Ema 9$138.14
Ema 21$135.72
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 758.77
Rsi 1460.07
Rsi 2168.30
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K66.39
Stoch D69.15
Macd Line0.88
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-0.71
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr8.79
Atr Pct6.24%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv49.68
Iv Rank0.00
Iv Percentile0.00%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper156.9
Bb Middle132.9
Bb Lower108.8
Bb Pctb0.67
True High$142.04
True Low$138.60
True High 5d$142.04
True Low 5d$131.22
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$1.29
Sma50$-0.91
Mvwap20$0.67
Macd0.25
Rsi1.01
Volume-635,760
Atr-0.37
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 3, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
99
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
53
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 83%
79
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 43%
27
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
12

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

SPC Stock Shows Bullish Signs Despite Volatility

The market appears bullish on SPCX despite recent volatility. The underlying price is up 0.38% today, and the stock has shown strong momentum with a positive RSI and MACD signal. Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout above resistance at $142-145.

Front ATM IV56.64%
Current IV50.97%
IV Rank0.00
IV Percentile0.00%
25Δ skew-1.60
Term slope-7.98
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.52%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
56.6%48.7%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-08-281.0056.64%
2026-09-048.0049.94%
2026-09-1115.0048.66%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$137.00
Long strike$136.00
Net credit / share$0.18
Credit / width18.00%
$18$-82$135.45$137.55Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$143.00
Long strike$144.00
Net credit / share$0.20
Credit / width20.50%
$20$-80$142.45$144.55Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • SPCX is trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
  • The stock's RSI is in neutral territory, suggesting potential for further upside.
  • The MACD histogram is improving, indicating bullish momentum.
Risk context
  • High volatility in the stock warrants caution.
  • The stock is currently trading at a high P/S ratio, suggesting potential overvaluation.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score52.60

SPCX has a history of strong rallies following positive news events. Recent announcements regarding Starship Flight 14 and AI expansion could be catalysts for further price appreciation.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$5.77B
Underlying bid/ask spread0.06%
Option quote coverage100%
Median option spread3.52%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score26.90
Coverage43%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

SPCX Covered Call signal

Aug 27, 2026 9:39 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-08-28 | short $140.00 | $2.15 credit | High turnover | also meets Conservative

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Space Exploration Technologies Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$1.89T
Beta5.75
52-week range$104.83 – $225.64
Shares outstanding13.16B

Profitability and financial quality

Operating margin-19.94%
Net margin-31.28%
Debt / equity0.55×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue / share (TTM)2.37
Book value / share9.66

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJun 12, 2026
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity03a7d7e8aed2ac5f0404e54c

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy