Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd / CRDO

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank41.5/ 100
Official close$165.00+14.61 (+9.71%)
Bid$164.65
Ask$165.15
Previous close$150.39
ATR (14)9.48%
RSI (14)36.2
Volume5.96M
Model reference$155.00
Upside scenario$175.00
Risk reference$147.00
Decision summary

CRDO Shows Signs of Rebound After Earnings Dip

CautiousHigh confidence

The market appears cautiously bullish on CRDO following a recent rebound from its post-earnings dip. While technical indicators remain bearish, the stock has shown resilience and is trading above oversold levels. Positive news regarding new product launches and analyst upgrades contribute to the optimistic sentiment.

Wheel contextThe recent earnings dip created an opportunity for bullish traders to enter long positions. The stock's rebound and positive news flow suggest a potential continuation of this upward trend.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Bullish

Short-term scenario

Cautious long on oversold bounce + product news, but high uncertainty from post-earnings volatility, AI sector swings, and downtrend vs. MAs; wait for pullback confirmation or tight stops. Not a high-conviction swing given mixed technicals.

Three-month outlook

Cautiously constructive if optical/AEC ramps and hyperscaler AI capex hold (guidance supports 50-85%+ growth, analysts see path to $200-280+). Significant uncertainty: high beta/volatility, customer concentration risk, insider selling (CEO 10b5-1), possible AI spending normalization, and valuation still elevated vs. history despite compression. Could retest $130 support on further sector weakness or grind toward $200 on continued beats; outcome highly dependent on next earnings/guidance and macro/AI narrative. Identify as speculative with wide range of outcomes.


Market sentiment context

Recent posts (Sep 16) mixed-to-cautiously bullish on today's 7%+ rebound: traders noting purchases around $163, resilience amid rate hike, ZeroFlap product, and AI optics. Some discussion of potential M&A (e.g., AAOI) and holder groups; others highlight cheap NTM multiple (~21x) vs. growth. Low-engagement overall, dip-buying interest but not euphoric.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$194.95
50D SMA$217.26
200D SMA$175.86
9D EMA$166.76
21D EMA$188.48
20D MVWAP$179.60
YTD VWAP$175.02
Daily reference VWAP$159.59
Price vs 20D SMA-17.16%
Price vs 50D SMA-25.67%
Price vs 200D SMA-8.17%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)35.73
RSI (14)36.18
RSI (21)39.41
Stochastic K5.09
Stochastic D3.19
MACD line-21.15
MACD histogram-16.99
ADX (14)21.79
MACD acceleration-0.55
RSI velocity0.99
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.36
ATR (14) %9.48%
Bollinger upper$264.19
Bollinger middle$194.95
Bollinger lower$125.72
Bollinger position0.26%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility99.47%
Observed range position8.59%
5D true high$167.92
5D true low$149.14
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume5.96M
20D average volume4.36M
Volume vs 20D average1.37x
20D SMA velocity-5.45
50D SMA velocity-1.95
Institutional flow-4.85
ATR velocity-0.36
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$165.00
DateSep 16, 2026
Volume5.96M
Vwap D$159.59
Mvwap 20$179.60
Change14.61
Change Percentage9.71%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$194.95
Sma 50$217.26
Sma 200$175.86
Ema 9$166.76
Ema 21$188.48
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 735.73
Rsi 1436.18
Rsi 2139.41
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K5.09
Stoch D3.19
Macd Line-21.15
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-16.99
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr15.31
Atr Pct9.48%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv68.24
Iv Rank28.02
Iv Percentile2.39%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper264.2
Bb Middle195.0
Bb Lower125.7
Bb Pctb0.26
True High$164.55
True Low$150.39
True High 5d$167.92
True Low 5d$149.14
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-5.45
Sma50$-1.95
Mvwap20$-4.85
Macd-0.55
Rsi0.99
Volume857,764
Atr-0.36
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 30, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
81
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
47
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
18
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 71%
98
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
13

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

CRDO Shows Signs of Rebound After Earnings Dip

The market appears cautiously bullish on CRDO following a recent rebound from its post-earnings dip. While technical indicators remain bearish, the stock has shown resilience and is trading above oversold levels. Positive news regarding new product launches and analyst upgrades contribute to the optimistic sentiment.

Front ATM IV85.42%
Current IV63.54%
IV Rank23.00
IV Percentile0.80%
25Δ skew-1.68
Term slope-15.23
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread19.72%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
85.4%70.2%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-182.0085.42%
2026-09-259.0070.65%
2026-10-0216.0070.19%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$152.50
Long strike$150.00
Net credit / share$0.50
Credit / width20.00%
$50$-200$148.63$153.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$167.50
Long strike$170.00
Net credit / share$0.38
Credit / width15.00%
$38$-212$166.13$171.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • CRDO's price has rebounded over 7% since hitting a low after its recent earnings report.
  • Traders are noting buying activity around $163, suggesting potential support at this level.
  • BofA increased its stake in CRDO, signaling confidence in the company's future.
  • CRDO is showcasing new products at the AI Infra Summit 2026, highlighting its commitment to innovation in the growing AI market.
Risk context
  • CRDO remains significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a continued downtrend.
  • The stock is highly volatile with a beta of 3.23, making it susceptible to market swings.
  • Customer concentration risk remains a concern as the top customers account for approximately 84% of revenue.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score47.30

The recent earnings dip created an opportunity for bullish traders to enter long positions. The stock's rebound and positive news flow suggest a potential continuation of this upward trend.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$961.74M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.26%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread19.72%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score98.10
Coverage71%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

CRDO Covered Call signal

Sep 16, 2026 11:08 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $145.00 | $17.25 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$30.35B
P/E (TTM)52.4×
Beta3.32
52-week range$86.49 – $308.67
52-week return-8.29%
Shares outstanding186.48M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity27.16%
Operating margin31.74%
Net margin33.83%
Debt / equity0.00×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)93.53%
Revenue / share (TTM)8.19
Book value / share14.53

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryKy
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJan 27, 2022
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity35c90d41176c6f35272266e1

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy