Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd / CRDO

StockTechnologySemiconductors
JW Rank42.5/ 100
Official close$159.60-8.32 (-4.95%)
Bid$159.20
Ask$159.47
Previous close$167.92
ATR (14)10.79%
RSI (14)31.9
Volume3.67M
Model reference$160.00
Upside scenario$175.00
Risk reference$152.00
Decision summary

CRDO Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Dip

CautiousHigh confidence

The CRDO option market reflects a mixed sentiment following a recent earnings-driven decline. While implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting uncertainty and potential for price swings, the term structure shows backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term contracts. The skew is skewed towards put demand, reflecting bearishness. However, oversold technical indicators and positive long-term fundamentals suggest a potential for a bounce.

Wheel contextThe option market shows mixed signals, with both bullish and bearish factors present. The recent earnings dip has created uncertainty, but the oversold technicals and strong fundamentals suggest a potential for a rebound.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Speculative cautious long for oversold bounce (1-3 weeks) given RSI extremes and strong AI demand, but high uncertainty from post-earnings downtrend, concentration risk, and volatility. Suitable only for high-risk tolerance; wait for stabilization above 164 or further washout.

Three-month outlook

Constructive but highly uncertain. AI data-center buildout (AECs, 1.6T/3.2T optics, ZeroFlap, PILOT, DustPhotonics SiPho) supports >80-85% FY27 revenue growth and margin expansion potential; recovery toward $200-220 possible if optics ramp and sentiment improve. Major risks: 4-customer concentration (order delays could crush results), acquisition integration/amortization, competition (photonics peers), still-elevated valuation, and broader tech/AI rotation. Could retest $140-150 or lower on any miss/guidance cut. High-beta growth name—position sizing critical.


Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautious. Dip-buyers adding (e.g., 500 shares at $159.52) citing 115% growth, AI interconnect leadership, and oversold bounce vs panic after 20%+ drop. Posts highlight 'looking so bad', 4-customer concentration (~84% sales), and valuation debate. Bulls emphasize AEC/optical ramps, ALC demos, and 'red days don't change fundamentals'. Some wheel/put strategies discussed. Overall: AI/semi community sees long-term potential but short-term skepticism on execution/sentiment.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$216.44
50D SMA$225.02
200D SMA$175.74
9D EMA$181.88
21D EMA$203.46
20D MVWAP$197.79
YTD VWAP$175.52
Daily reference VWAP$161.73
Price vs 20D SMA-25.93%
Price vs 50D SMA-28.76%
Price vs 200D SMA-8.78%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)20.90
RSI (14)31.89
RSI (21)37.46
Stochastic K5.90
Stochastic D6.87
MACD line-18.77
MACD histogram-11.32
ADX (14)17.95
MACD acceleration-1.57
RSI velocity-0.77
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.65
ATR (14) %10.79%
Bollinger upper$291.81
Bollinger middle$216.44
Bollinger lower$141.07
Bollinger position0.13%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility106.39%
Observed range position0.00%
5D true high$178.00
5D true low$159.20
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.67M
20D average volume3.98M
Volume vs 20D average0.92x
20D SMA velocity-4.33
50D SMA velocity-1.73
Institutional flow-3.53
ATR velocity-0.65
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$159.60
DateSep 10, 2026
Volume3.67M
Vwap D$161.73
Mvwap 20$197.79
Change-8.32
Change Percentage 4.95%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$216.44
Sma 50$225.02
Sma 200$175.74
Ema 9$181.88
Ema 21$203.46
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 720.90
Rsi 1431.89
Rsi 2137.46
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K5.90
Stoch D6.87
Macd Line-18.77
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-11.32
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr17.30
Atr Pct10.79%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv66.57
Iv Rank26.24
Iv Percentile0.80%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper291.8
Bb Middle216.4
Bb Lower141.1
Bb Pctb0.13
True High$167.92
True Low$159.20
True High 5d$178.00
True Low 5d$159.20
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-4.33
Sma50$-1.73
Mvwap20$-3.53
Macd-1.57
Rsi-0.77
Volume-881,783
Atr-0.65
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 30, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
88
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
46
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
17
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 71%
98
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
15

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

CRDO Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment After Earnings Dip

The CRDO option market reflects a mixed sentiment following a recent earnings-driven decline. While implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting uncertainty and potential for price swings, the term structure shows backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term contracts. The skew is skewed towards put demand, reflecting bearishness. However, oversold technical indicators and positive long-term fundamentals suggest a potential for a bounce.

Front ATM IV74.10%
Current IV68.18%
IV Rank27.96
IV Percentile1.59%
25Δ skew11.76
Term slope-7.52
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage97%
Median option spread13.95%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
74.1%66.6%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-111.0074.10%
2026-09-188.0068.23%
2026-09-2515.0066.58%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$167.50
Long strike$170.00
Net credit / share$0.43
Credit / width17.00%
$43$-207$166.13$171.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility at 68.18% suggests heightened market uncertainty.
  • Backwardated term structure with near-term contracts more expensive indicates a preference for short-term trades.
  • Put demand elevated skew points to bearish sentiment and potential downside risk.
  • Oversold RSI(14) and Stochastic readings suggest a possible bounce.
  • Strong long-term growth prospects driven by AI data center buildout and acquisitions.
Risk context
  • High customer concentration (4 customers >10% of sales) poses a risk to future revenue.
  • Valuation remains elevated despite recent decline, making it susceptible to further pullbacks.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score45.60

The option market shows mixed signals, with both bullish and bearish factors present. The recent earnings dip has created uncertainty, but the oversold technicals and strong fundamentals suggest a potential for a rebound.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$588.85M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.22%
Option quote coverage97%
Median option spread13.95%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score98.10
Coverage71%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Company and fundamental profile

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$30.13B
P/E (TTM)56.0×
Beta3.29
52-week range$86.49 – $308.67
52-week return12.68%
Shares outstanding186.48M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity27.16%
Operating margin31.74%
Net margin33.83%
Debt / equity0.00×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)93.53%
Revenue / share (TTM)8.19
Book value / share14.53

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryKy
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateJan 27, 2022
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity360e47e30fe8202825e71985

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy