Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Adobe Inc / ADBE

StockTechnologyTechnology
JW Rank63.3/ 100
Official close$257.76-7.84 (-2.95%)
Bid$257.50
Ask$260.00
Previous close$265.60
ATR (14)4.21%
RSI (14)46.4
Volume2.25M
Model reference$260.50
Upside scenario$275.00
Risk reference$250.00
Decision summary

ADBE Option Market Implies Uncertainty After Earnings

BalancedHigh confidence

The ADBE option market reflects a mixed outlook following recent earnings. While implied volatility is elevated, suggesting uncertainty, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating some expectation for price stability in the near term. The skew is balanced, with no significant directional bias. However, put options are more actively traded than calls, hinting at potential downside risk perception.

Wheel contextPut options are more actively traded than calls, suggesting potential downside risk perception.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious dip-buy for potential 1-3 week bounce given recent oversold options positioning and software rotation, but mixed technicals and post-earnings volatility create high uncertainty; wait for confirmation above $266.

Three-month outlook

Highly uncertain. Fundamentals (double-digit ARR growth, expanding AI-first revenue, buybacks) support a recovery toward $280-310 if monetization of 1B users and enterprise demand materialize, but persistent AI-disruption narrative, slightly soft Q4 guide, CEO transition, and software-sector rotation could keep the stock range-bound or pressured toward $240. Identify elevated uncertainty from the large gap between cheap valuation and lingering growth/AI skepticism.


Market sentiment context

Mixed with value-oriented bullish tilt among longer-term investors (undervalued cash-flow machine, AI as enhancer rather than disruptor, cheap P/E, buybacks). Contrarian optimism vs. short-term bearish options flow (put/call ratio in 96th percentile). Skepticism persists on AI competition, Q4 guide, and leadership change.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$271.75
50D SMA$254.32
200D SMA$266.03
9D EMA$262.72
21D EMA$265.42
20D MVWAP$268.35
YTD VWAP$251.04
Daily reference VWAP$259.83
Price vs 20D SMA-5.15%
Price vs 50D SMA1.35%
Price vs 200D SMA-3.11%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)41.96
RSI (14)46.44
RSI (21)49.17
Stochastic K32.10
Stochastic D21.18
MACD line0.10
MACD histogram4.03
ADX (14)20.87
MACD acceleration-0.74
RSI velocity2.09
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)0.08
ATR (14) %4.21%
Bollinger upper$298.42
Bollinger middle$271.75
Bollinger lower$245.07
Bollinger position0.24%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility48.65%
Observed range position64.75%
5D true high$266.10
5D true low$241.51
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume2.25M
20D average volume2.90M
Volume vs 20D average0.78x
20D SMA velocity-0.22
50D SMA velocity0.85
Institutional flow-0.85
ATR velocity0.08
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$257.76
DateSep 15, 2026
Volume2.25M
Vwap D$259.83
Mvwap 20$268.35
Change-7.84
Change Percentage 2.95%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBearish Warning
Sma 20$271.75
Sma 50$254.32
Sma 200$266.03
Ema 9$262.72
Ema 21$265.42
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 741.96
Rsi 1446.44
Rsi 2149.17
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K32.10
Stoch D21.18
Macd Line0.10
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist4.03
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr10.86
Atr Pct4.21%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv41.76
Iv Rank47.24
Iv Percentile45.82%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper298.4
Bb Middle271.8
Bb Lower245.1
Bb Pctb0.24
True High$265.60
True Low$257.25
True High 5d$266.10
True Low 5d$241.51
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.22
Sma50$0.85
Mvwap20$-0.85
Macd-0.74
Rsi2.09
Volume-964,981
Atr0.08
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateDec 9, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
94
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
75
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
45
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
83
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
59

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

ADBE Option Market Implies Uncertainty After Earnings

The ADBE option market reflects a mixed outlook following recent earnings. While implied volatility is elevated, suggesting uncertainty, the term structure shows a slight backwardation, indicating some expectation for price stability in the near term. The skew is balanced, with no significant directional bias. However, put options are more actively traded than calls, hinting at potential downside risk perception.

Front ATM IV47.15%
Current IV41.66%
IV Rank46.97
IV Percentile45.42%
25Δ skew0.02
Term slope-5.01
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread17.51%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

2 observed expirations
47.2%42.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-183.0047.15%
2026-09-2510.0042.14%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$255.00
Long strike$252.50
Net credit / share$0.53
Credit / width21.20%
$53$-197$251.13$256.38Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$270.00
Long strike$272.50
Net credit / share$0.47
Credit / width18.80%
$47$-203$268.63$273.88Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 41.66%, suggesting uncertainty surrounding future price movements.
  • The term structure shows a slight backwardation, with near-term IV slightly higher than farther-term IV, potentially indicating some expectation for stability in the near term.
  • The delta 25 skew is balanced at 0.02 points, showing no strong directional bias in option pricing.
Risk context
  • Elevated implied volatility suggests increased price swings are possible.
  • The put/call ratio is skewed towards puts, indicating a higher probability of price decline.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score74.70

Put options are more actively traded than calls, suggesting potential downside risk perception.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$580.79M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.97%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread17.51%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score82.90
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

ADBE Covered Call signal

Sep 15, 2026 10:09 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-18 | short $257.50 | $5.20 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Adobe Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$105.58B
P/E (TTM)13.8×
Beta1.40
52-week range$190.12 – $370.86
52-week return-28.05%
Shares outstanding397.50M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity62.39%
Operating margin35.70%
Net margin28.05%
Debt / equity0.53×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)10.52%
EPS growth (3Y)18.25%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)13.17%
Revenue / share (TTM)65.75
Book value / share28.87

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1986-08-20
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity19220f258341cea085a6d57f

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy