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Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Tempus AI Inc / TEM

StockLife Sciences Tools & ServicesLife Sciences Tools & Services
JW Rank54.8/ 100
Official close$58.82-2.46 (-4.01%)
Bid$58.26
Ask$59.00
Previous close$61.28
ATR (14)7.49%
RSI (14)47.9
Volume3.63M
Model reference$56.50
Upside scenario$64.00
Risk reference$52.00
Decision summary

TEM Option Market Shows Uncertainty Amidst Mixed Signals

BalancedHigh confidence

The TEM option market reflects uncertainty surrounding the company's future. While recent news includes FDA clearances and analyst upgrades, concerns about the Personalis acquisition and mixed technical signals contribute to a cautious outlook. The term structure exhibits backwardation with higher implied volatility for near-term expirations.

Wheel contextOption pricing reflects a balance between bullish sentiment driven by recent FDA approvals and growth prospects, and bearish concerns regarding the dilutive impact of the Personalis acquisition and mixed technical signals.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious wait-and-see or small dip-buy if support holds; high uncertainty from today's decline, mixed technicals, and upcoming conference. Not a high-conviction 1-3 week trade.

Three-month outlook

Moderately constructive on 25%+ revenue growth, new FDA-cleared products, data/pharma partnerships, and potential Personalis MRD synergy, with path toward Adj. EBITDA positivity. However, very high uncertainty: acquisition dilution/execution risk (close late 2026/early 2027), still-negative GAAP earnings and cash burn, rich 7.6x P/S valuation, elevated short interest, and sector/AI sentiment swings. Could trade $50-75 range depending on Q3 results, deal progress, and broader market. Volatility remains elevated.

Market sentiment context

Mixed/cautious with no strong consensus. Some traders note gapping lower to support and watch for reversal at 8-week MA or 21 EMA; others advise 'don't buy'. Longer-term posts highlight AI/healthcare potential, founder stake, pharma partnerships (AstraZeneca, Merck etc.), but recent comments flag dilution from Personalis deal, cash burn, and valuation. Promotional/spam posts common. Overall uncertain and not aggressively bullish near-term.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$62.35
50D SMA$55.93
200D SMA$56.32
9D EMA$62.53
21D EMA$61.09
20D MVWAP$64.10
YTD VWAP$54.96
Daily reference VWAP$59.29
Price vs 20D SMA-5.79%
Price vs 50D SMA5.02%
Price vs 200D SMA4.30%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)36.09
RSI (14)47.86
RSI (21)50.60
Stochastic K22.17
Stochastic D41.63
MACD line2.25
MACD histogram3.18
ADX (14)27.43
MACD acceleration-0.38
RSI velocity-3.26
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.09
ATR (14) %7.49%
Bollinger upper$75.12
Bollinger middle$62.35
Bollinger lower$49.58
Bollinger position0.36%
Volatility environmentHigh
20D realized volatility110.63%
Observed range position55.20%
5D true high$66.30
5D true low$58.02
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume3.63M
20D average volume5.31M
Volume vs 20D average0.68x
20D SMA velocity0.32
50D SMA velocity0.08
Institutional flow0.18
ATR velocity-0.09
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$58.82
DateSep 10, 2026
Volume3.63M
Vwap D$59.29
Mvwap 20$64.10
Change-2.46
Change Percentage 4.01%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalBullish Recovery
Sma 20$62.35
Sma 50$55.93
Sma 200$56.32
Ema 9$62.53
Ema 21$61.09
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 736.09
Rsi 1447.86
Rsi 2150.60
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K22.17
Stoch D41.63
Macd Line2.25
Macd SignalBullish
Macd Hist3.18
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr4.40
Atr Pct7.49%
EnvironmentHigh
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv71.83
Iv Rank54.56
Iv Percentile50.20%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper75.12
Bb Middle62.35
Bb Lower49.58
Bb Pctb0.36
True High$61.28
True Low$58.02
True High 5d$66.30
True Low 5d$58.02
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$0.32
Sma50$0.08
Mvwap20$0.18
Macd-0.38
Rsi-3.26
Volume202,763
Atr-0.09
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskLow
Earnings DateNov 3, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskHigh
Structure RiskLow
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
74
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
58
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
67
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
56
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 71%
22
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
32

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

TEM Option Market Shows Uncertainty Amidst Mixed Signals

The TEM option market reflects uncertainty surrounding the company's future. While recent news includes FDA clearances and analyst upgrades, concerns about the Personalis acquisition and mixed technical signals contribute to a cautious outlook. The term structure exhibits backwardation with higher implied volatility for near-term expirations.

Front ATM IV88.54%
Current IV67.88%
IV Rank46.31
IV Percentile30.68%
25Δ skew-9.36
Term slope-17.40
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage93%
Median option spread21.34%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
88.5%71.1%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-111.0088.54%—
2026-09-188.0072.62%—
2026-09-2515.0071.14%—
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$56.00
Long strike$55.00
Net credit / share$0.08
Credit / width8.50%
$8$-92$54.45$56.55Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract

Bear Call Spread Reference

Expiration—
Short strike$61.00
Long strike$62.00
Net credit / share$0.17
Credit / width17.00%
$17$-83$60.45$62.55Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is elevated at 67.88%, suggesting market participants anticipate significant price swings.
  • The skew is call-demand elevated, indicating a preference for bullish bets on TEM's upside potential.
  • Short-term technical indicators are mixed, with the stock trading below short-term moving averages but above longer-term support levels.
  • Recent news includes both positive developments (FDA clearances, analyst upgrades) and concerns (acquisition dilution, cash burn)
  • The market is awaiting key events like the CEO fireside chat and the Personalis acquisition close for further direction.
Risk context
  • The Personalis acquisition could face delays or integration challenges, impacting stock performance.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score58.20

Option pricing reflects a balance between bullish sentiment driven by recent FDA approvals and growth prospects, and bearish concerns regarding the dilutive impact of the Personalis acquisition and mixed technical signals.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$213.01M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.75%
Option quote coverage93%
Median option spread21.34%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score22.30
Coverage71%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Company and fundamental profile

Tempus AI Inc at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$10.60B
Beta2.34
52-week range$40.77 – $104.32
52-week return-24.36%
Shares outstanding180.24M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity-54.70%
Operating margin-21.42%
Net margin-17.77%
Debt / equity2.52×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)58.29%
Revenue / share (TTM)7.85
Book value / share2.47

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO dateMay 30, 2025
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity68570e40848e91d1c378cf28

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

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Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy