Dated end-of-day edition
JW Intelligence Report

Costco Wholesale Corp / COST

StockConsumer DiscretionaryRetail
JW Rank61.0/ 100
Official close$925.50-2.98 (-0.32%)
Bid$922.50
Ask$928.58
Previous close$928.48
ATR (14)1.89%
RSI (14)41.2
Volume1.08M
Model reference$920.00
Upside scenario$960.00
Risk reference$900.00
Decision summary

COST Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Ahead of Earnings

BalancedHigh confidence

The COST option market displays a mixed sentiment ahead of its September 24th earnings release. While implied volatility is elevated at 23.61%, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the upcoming results, technical indicators point to a short-term downtrend with bearish momentum.

Wheel contextThe market is positioned for potential volatility surrounding the upcoming earnings release. Traders are buying put options to hedge against downside risk, while call buyers are looking for upside potential.
Dated supporting context

JW AI outlook

Mixed

Short-term scenario

Cautious/wait for dip; technicals currently bearish and earnings (Sep 24) add high uncertainty. Existing holders may hold if support holds.

Three-month outlook

Moderately constructive with analyst consensus implying ~16% upside to ~$1,077, supported by consistent sales growth and membership model. However, significant uncertainty exists due to elevated valuation (P/E ~47), signs of slowing warehouse traffic, potential multiple compression, DOJ inquiry, and macro consumer-spending risks. Technical weakness could persist until post-earnings confirmation; realistic 3-month range $850-$1,050 depending on results and broader market.


Market sentiment context

Mixed-to-cautious. Recent posts highlight valuation fatigue, high P/E, technical weakness and slight comps deceleration, with some traders watching for further pullback to $920. Others note resilient membership loyalty and customer service as long-term positives. Overall limited high-engagement discussion; sentiment leans wary of the premium multiple ahead of earnings rather than strongly directional.

Observed market data

Price and technical structure

Dated end-of-day indicator set
Trend reference levels11 observations
20D SMA$948.80
50D SMA$944.10
200D SMA$960.25
9D EMA$939.85
21D EMA$945.31
20D MVWAP$946.21
YTD VWAP$969.93
Daily reference VWAP$923.83
Price vs 20D SMA-2.47%
Price vs 50D SMA-1.98%
Price vs 200D SMA-3.63%
Momentum kinematics10 observations
RSI (7)33.66
RSI (14)41.17
RSI (21)43.56
Stochastic K18.91
Stochastic D25.56
MACD line-4.12
MACD histogram-1.02
ADX (14)12.00
MACD acceleration-1.20
RSI velocity-2.11
Volatility and price boundaries11 observations
ATR (14)-0.04
ATR (14) %1.89%
Bollinger upper$973.09
Bollinger middle$948.80
Bollinger lower$924.50
Bollinger position0.02%
Volatility environmentLow
20D realized volatility19.48%
Observed range position16.88%
5D true high$953.73
5D true low$915.31
Participation and institutional flow7 observations
Volume1.08M
20D average volume714,090
Volume vs 20D average1.51x
20D SMA velocity-0.75
50D SMA velocity-0.51
Institutional flow-1.17
ATR velocity-0.04
Available cached indicators

Detailed decision indicators

Dated authorized values
Market overview7 observations
Price$925.50
DateSep 3, 2026
Volume1.08M
Vwap D$923.83
Mvwap 20$946.21
Change-2.98
Change Percentage 0.32%
Trend structure6 observations
Trend SignalStrong Bear
Sma 20$948.80
Sma 50$944.10
Sma 200$960.25
Ema 9$939.85
Ema 21$945.31
Momentum structure9 observations
Rsi 733.66
Rsi 1441.17
Rsi 2143.56
Rsi SignalNeutral
Stoch K18.91
Stoch D25.56
Macd Line-4.12
Macd SignalBearish
Macd Hist-1.02
Volatility structure3 observations
Atr17.50
Atr Pct1.89%
EnvironmentLow
Option market context3 observations
Current Iv23.06
Iv Rank48.53
Iv Percentile60.71%
Price boundaries8 observations
Bb Upper973.1
Bb Middle948.8
Bb Lower924.5
Bb Pctb0.02
True High$930.76
True Low$915.31
True High 5d$953.73
True Low 5d$915.31
Three-day velocities7 observations
Sma20$-0.75
Sma50$-0.51
Mvwap20$-1.17
Macd-1.20
Rsi-2.11
Volume153,404
Atr-0.04
Risk radar5 observations
Earnings RiskMedium
Earnings DateSep 24, 2026
Macro RiskUnknown
Vol RiskLow
Structure RiskMedium
Deterministic scoring

JW Rank factors

Higher scores indicate stronger observed structure
LiquidityTrading capacity and quote quality proxyCoverage 100%
91
Strategy FitGeneric Wheel premium-selling environment fitCoverage 100%
86
Technical TrendPrice trend, momentum and long-term structureCoverage 100%
29
Market Tail RiskMarket-wide volatility and tail-risk regimeCoverage 100%
64
Fundamental QualityBusiness quality and balance-sheet durabilityCoverage 100%
52
Volatility PressureOption premium pressure relative to realized movementCoverage 100%
77

JW Rank is not a buy/sell rating, and coverage measures field availability—not accuracy or certainty.

Options Intelligence

What the closing chain was pricing

COST Option Market Shows Mixed Sentiment Ahead of Earnings

The COST option market displays a mixed sentiment ahead of its September 24th earnings release. While implied volatility is elevated at 23.61%, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the upcoming results, technical indicators point to a short-term downtrend with bearish momentum.

Front ATM IV21.54%
Current IV23.61%
IV Rank53.23
IV Percentile61.90%
25Δ skew-5.94
Term slope-2.27
Term structureBackwardation
Quote coverage99%
Median option spread18.41%
Term structure

Implied volatility by expiration

3 observed expirations
21.5%18.4%
ExpirationDTEATM IVState
2026-09-041.0021.54%
2026-09-118.0018.42%
2026-09-1815.0019.27%
Reference structures

Defined-risk observations

Bull Put Spread Reference

Expiration
Short strike$920.00
Long strike$915.00
Net credit / share$0.79
Credit / width15.70%
$79$-421$912.25$922.75Expiration payoff per standard 100-share contract
Evidence used
  • Implied volatility is above average at 23.61% indicating heightened market uncertainty ahead of earnings.
  • The term structure shows backwardation with near-term options more expensive than longer-dated options, suggesting traders are pricing in potential volatility around the earnings announcement.
  • Technical indicators like RSI and MACD signal a bearish short-term trend with price below key moving averages.
Risk context
  • Earnings announcement on September 24th could trigger significant price swings.
Strategy intelligence

Structural fit, not a trade instruction

Wheel fit score86.70

The market is positioned for potential volatility surrounding the upcoming earnings release. Traders are buying put options to hedge against downside risk, while call buyers are looking for upside potential.

Execution intelligence

Liquidity and quote conditions

Dollar volume$995.27M
Underlying bid/ask spread0.16%
Option quote coverage99%
Median option spread18.41%
Fundamental intelligence

Business quality context

Factor score51.50
Coverage100%

Business quality and balance-sheet durability

Latest strategy observation

COST Covered Call signal

Sep 3, 2026 10:07 AM EDT

Covered Call | 2026-09-04 | short $930.00 | $1.82 credit | High turnover

Generalized structural observation only; no quantity, order instruction or personalized recommendation is provided.

Company and fundamental profile

Costco Wholesale Corp at a glance

Dated valuation, quality, growth and shareholder context

Market position and valuation

Market capitalization$410.40B
P/E (TTM)46.6×
Beta0.86
52-week range$844.06 – $1,096.50
52-week return-2.24%
Shares outstanding443.48M

Profitability and financial quality

Return on equity28.27%
Operating margin3.82%
Net margin3.01%
Debt / equity0.25×

Growth and cash generation

Revenue growth (3Y)6.64%
EPS growth (3Y)11.49%
Free cash flow CAGR (5Y)5.31%
Revenue / share (TTM)660.6
Book value / share75.55

Shareholder return and calendar

Dividend yield0.69%

Trading and reference facts

MarketNasdaq Nms Global Market
CountryUs
CurrencyUsd
IPO date1985-12-05
Company website
Methodology, edition and field coverage
EditionOfficial Close
Ready sections3 / 3
Report identity3cd8bd785afd173d11b34e6b

JW Rank is deterministic and is not a buy/sell rating. Narrative sections explain dated evidence and do not change the score or observed facts. Coverage measures field availability, not accuracy or certainty. This public edition remains fixed.

Continue with the same symbol

Carry COST from this dated report into your Watchlist.

The report remains a fixed publication. The App and web workspace continue with current cached quotes, alerts, options context and symbol history.

Important disclosures. Generalized market-structure research only. This report does not consider holdings, objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances and is not an investment recommendation, transaction instruction, offer, solicitation or return forecast. Market data, model scores and AI explanations may be delayed, incomplete or incorrect. Past, hypothetical, model and settled-signal results do not predict future results. Options are complex and may involve loss of the entire premium, substantial or theoretically unlimited loss, assignment, early exercise, margin, liquidity and execution risk. Before trading standardized options, read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy